More Tornadoes in Kentucky ?

On or around Monday night it appears that a power, negatively tilted cold front will sweep into Kentucky.  You can see this clearly on today’s 12Z run of the GFS model:

 

 

 

At the same time, in the upper levels we will see the nose of a powerful 100 knot jet streak move over the lower Ohio Valley as you can also see on the 12Z GFS run:

 

 

What is likely to happen is that this turning of the winds with height will aid in the development of strong to severe thunderstorms.  It’s too early to pin down exactly where this will happen.  But I believe that most of southern Indiana, central and western Kentucky, and parts of western Tennessee will have the potential for all modes of severe weather (wind damage, tornadoes, and hail). 

 

The models were wanting to bring this into the area on Tuesday.  But the past few runs have sped up the timing a little and it’s now shown moving in as early as Monday night.  This situation will bear watching as we head into late weekend.  Please stay tuned to local weather forecasts in case this severe weather episode does indeed develop.

 

EASTER.... right now a slight chance of showers and temps. in the 50s for Easter Sunday.  This is 10 days out, so changes are likely.

 

 

-Shawn

 

Summer Weather in Spring

As of today, the 26^th, March 2012 is the warmest March ever recorded at the official station in Lexington, KY (this is true of other official sites around the state as well).  With five more days to go, and a forecast showing lots of 60s and 70s for highs, there is no reason to believe that March 2012 will not go into the record books as the #1 warmest ever.

 

A lot of folks remember what happened five years ago.  March 2007 also featured some warm weather and an early start to trees blooming and flowers popping up.  Then, in April we had very cold weather and a hard freeze each morning from the 5^th through the 10^th of the month.  This devastated many plants that had gotten an early start to growing season and also damaged many trees.  There is some fear that we could see a repeat of that again this year.

 

The first thing I would like to point out is that March 2007 was very different from the March we are currently in.  Temperatures were running very average for the month through the first three weeks.  It wasn’t until the final week of the month that things really heated up.  We saw 80+ degree highs on the 24^th through the 28^th and finished the month up on a warm note.  By contrast, March 2012 has been warm from start to present.  We had a brief cold snap with a good snowfall on the 5^th of the month, otherwise we’ve seen very warm weather more similar to late May than March throughout its entirety.  As of today, we are running 11.5 degrees above average for the month at the Lexington station.  This is simply astonishing.  March 2007 finished 6.7 degrees above average.  The heat has been more persistent this year and has put March 2012 at the top of the all-time list.

 

If we look at the five previous years that had record setting warmth in March (2007 is not one of them) and then look at the April that followed, we see that only one time was April colder than March (1907).  In the other years (1910, 1921, 1945, 1946) April ended up even warmer than March.  So from a statistical standpoint, it is unlikely that April 2012 will be a cold, harsh month.

 

Having said that, it is normal to have low temperatures early in the morning near freezing in April, and a few cold mornings are likely.  It appears that we could see some frost tomorrow morning, March 27^th, and we may see frosty temps around Easter weekend as well.  So even if we don’t see abnormal cold in April, it’s important to remember that our usual weather does in fact bring us cold during this time of year.  We’ve been spoiled by the recent summer-like weather.  The odds are in our favor, however, that April will not be a cold month overall like we saw in 2007.

 

As of right now, there is nothing in the computer model data that would suggest a hard freeze with temps into the 20s is going to be a problem over the next two weeks.  Just remember to cover up those delicate flowers tonight for protection.  The trees should be fine as we head into April as I don’t see any weather cold enough to really damage them coming up.  In fact, the first couple of weeks of April look to be very average for this time of year and that is a good thing.

 

One more note before I go..  the model data is hinting at a possible severe weather outbreak here around April 3^rd.  It appears that a powerful, negatively tilted cold front may sweep through the first of next week, and that could set the stage for more wind damage and tornadoes.  This will be something to watch closely once we get past this weekend.  I pray that it does not become an April 3^rd like the one we had in 1974.

 

 

-Shawn

Severe Weather Possible in Kentucky Tomorrow

We’ve been seeing early-June weather lately.  Sunshine daily, with temps. in the lower to middle 80s is very reminiscent of early Summer rather than the very beginning of Spring.  But that’s all about to change.

 

A cut-off area of low pressure is drifting slowly through the nation’s mid section.  As the system is drawing closer to Kentucky now, clouds are already beginning to increase this afternoon.  Tonight, rain will overspread the entire area as the moisture finally catches up.

 

Tomorrow, after the first batch of rain has pushed through, it’s possible that we could go into a “dry slot” for a while during the afternoon.  This is an area that you see lots of times with areas of low pressure that are really wrapped up tight.  As this dry slot works through, sunshine may be common for a brief time which will allow for the surface airmass to destabilize.  At the same time, the cold air aloft generated by the cut-off low pressure will drift overhead.  This will possibly create a situation where you have very warm surface temps and very cold upper air temps...which means that the air will want to rise violently and create thunderstorms.

 

The Storm Prediction Center has all of central Kentucky in the Slight Risk zone for severe weather tomorrow.  Hail will be the main threat.  Isolated damaging wind and a few weak tornadoes are possible too.  Keep an eye on weather conditions tomorrow, especially during the afternoon.

 

 

 

 

-Shawn

Heat Wave in March

The amazing thing about this warm wave is that there is no obvious end to it in sight.  It appears that maybe during the middle of next week the pattern may break down a little bit with a frontal passage...but even the GFS points to 70s returning right afterward.  This may go down as one of the warmest March months ever recorded.

 

Bugs will be awful this year.  Lots of pest problems.  The winter was mild and didn't really kill them off... plus it's been wet..  now it's an early start to Spring.  Look for mosquitoes to fly in squadrons.  They may even start a TOPGUN school for their finest.  It’s going to be a bug spray kind of Summer around here.

 

Severe WX season is far from done.  I believe April still has a shot at being terrible.  Cold weather?  Might return, but unlikely.  Someone noted that we had a warm March in '07 I think it was...and then a killing freeze in April.  I suppose that is very possible again this year..but it is unlikely.  The shear persistence of this pattern we’ve seen since December has been nothing short of amazing.

 

I'm also growing worried about the possibility of Summer drought...but I don’t even want to think about that right now.  Let’s focus on March/April and the warmth and storms it may bring.

 

Basking in 70s tomorrow afternoon:

 

 

 

 

Shawn

 

Kentucky Forecast

After a cold start Saturday morning with temps down in the 20s (Brrr!) it appears that we’re going right back to the warm Spring pattern that we’ve really been seeing for a long while now.  50s will be common this weekend under sunny skies.  Should make for a great weekend to work in the yard, break out the baseball cleats, or whatever you have planned!  By early next week, the GFS modeling shows temperatures flirting with the 70s!  We should be in a very warm pattern with scattered storms all week from Monday-Friday... a pattern that we usually see in early Summer rather than late Winter!

 

For now, enjoy the gorgeous weekend we’ve got coming up!  And feast your eyes on these warmer temps headed our way!

 

Snow and Temperatures Across Kentucky

Good afternoon.  I just wanted to show you something really cool.  A band of heavy snow worked across Kentucky last night, dropping 3-6” of heavy wet snow across areas mostly along a Louisville to Lexington to Pikeville line.  Today, the sun is shining statewide, and you can very easily see where the sharp cutoff to the snow was simply by looking at temperatures!  The snow has a high albedo...which means that it reflects a LOT of incoming solar energy.  This prevents the ground from soaking up the radiation and warming.  By contrast, the areas with no snowfall saw temps. go as much as 10 degrees higher today because the ground soaked up the sunlight and warmed.  Snow is definitely an excellent insulator!!  This is also why wearing sunglasses on a snowy day is a must.

 

 

 

 

-Shawn

Snow?

Update:  Looks like the NAM model was the champ again, as it's more agressive forecast for 2-4" of snow came to pass.  We got 4" in Lawrenceburg.  Here's a view from the hillside:

Good Sunday evening.  We just wrapped up a wild week of weather here in Kentucky.  Two tornado outbreaks 48 hours apart ripped through the state and devestated many areas.  We're going to see people picking up the pieces for a long while unfortunately.   To really add a little more wild to the mix, we are now under a Winter Weather Advisory for snow effective tonight.  Looks like a swath of 1-4" of snow will sweep through Kentucky tonight, and some school cancellations will be possible!

I think that areas along the BG parkway will stand the best shot at seeing accumulating snowfall tonight...but areas in and east of Lexington will see some good snow as well.  The question is will the warm ground hold accumulations down?  For now, my advice would be to plan a little extra time to get to work tomorrow, in case roads are slippery.

This episode will be short lived, as Spring-like weather will quickly return by mid-week.

-Shawn

Severe Weather Outbreak: Round 2

As of the noon hour today, the National Weather Service office in Louisville has confirmed 4 tornadoes occurred with yesterday’s outbreak.  Of those, 3 of them are being classified as EF-2 in strength.  Survey teams are still investigating and these numbers may rise later today.  I’m sure you’ve seen the pictures and video on the news..  it was an outbreak that caused mass destruction.

 

We are 24 hours away from round two.  Yet another strong low pressure system will develop today in Missouri and move toward the Great Lakes Friday night.  As it does so, it’ll drag a cold front into the Ohio Valley.  With good lift from the front, as well as good moisture and howling winds with lots of shear, or turning of direction with height, the stage will be set again for a repeat of Wednesday.

 

Here is how I think this will shape up:

 

During the wee hours of Friday morning, before sunrise, t-storms will break out near the warm front moving through Tennessee.  By sunrise Friday, these storms will intensify in strength and may become severe.  This cluster of thunderstorms may cause damage in middle Tennessee as it moves through the Nashville area.  Here is the WRF model depiction:

 

 

By lunchtime on Friday, this batch of severe weather will push northward into Kentucky.  Hail and wind damage will be possible with this activity.  Tornadoes will also be possible with any of these storms.

 

After this batch of severe weather pushes through, a break in the action will take place for a few hours.  Then, a severe squall line will develop along the cold front.  This will race eastward Friday evening and into the night.  Wind damage will be the main threat with this line, with a couple of quick tornado spin-ups possible.  At this time, it appears that southern KY, Tennessee, and northern Alabama will be most affected by this line.  However, central KY may see severe weather with this line as well.  Here’s the WRF model depiction of the squall line Friday night:

 

 

So in a nutshell:  cluster of severe weather, damaging and deadly, will move out of TN and into KY during the first half of Friday.  Then a second round of severe weather, mostly a wind threat, will sweep through Friday night.

 

Here is the current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:  The hatched area is the area where violent tornadoes (EF3 or larger) and significant severe weather is possible.   Lexington, KY to Nashville, TN is right in the bulls-eye.  This is a serious situation.  Please spread the word to family and friends.  Stay alert, and keep a NOAA weather radio handy.

 

 

-Shawn