Yet another massive outbreak coming up.

UPDATE (12:00):  SPC has issued a statement indicating that they will expand the High Risk area eastward this afternoon to include more of Kentucky, including Louisville and Bowling Green.  We'll have to wait until they issue the outlook to see exactly where the outbreak is looking to set up, but the bottom line is that the weather situation is growing increasingly more threatening with each passing hour.

Upper level winds are not very high with this system, but it looks to me like helicity and shear values ARE high, as well as moisture and instability.  So the ingredients are together for supercell type storms to develop, and those are the kind that can produce violent and long-lived tornadoes.  This activity will affect western KY later this afternoon and may approach the I65 corridor by later tonight.

Please urge your family and friends to keep the weather radios on alert mode and stay tuned to the NWS website (www.weather.gov/louisville) if you are in an area away from weather radio access.


Just added:  Here is a new look at the current outlook from SPC:

-Shawn




UPDATE:

SPC has upgraded western Kentucky to HIGH RISK for severe weather today.  A deadly outbreak of tornadoes and wind damage is LIKELY just to our west.  Central Kentucky is upgraded to Moderate Risk.  Latest model data coming in reveals that much of Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Tennessee could see destructive storms today and tonight.  Here is the latest outlook:

Please take this seriously.  Keep your NOAA weather radio on alert mode today and if you have any family or friends in the High Risk area, warn them to stay constantly alert to weather conditions.  We do NOT need any more fatalities!  We've had way too many this year already.  More updates later...


-Shawn


The eastern half of the U.S. has been absolutely hammered by severe weather this season.  This was predicted nearly two months ago (see this link: http://www.theandersonnews.com/content/very-active-severe-storm-season-could-be-shaping ) and unfortunately the prediction has been spot-on.  We've also seen large cities such as Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Minneapolis, and Joplin sustain massive damage and fatalities which is unusual.  The severe weather train is still rolling and will flare up again on Wednesday and Thursday.

Here is the current convective outlook for Wednesday from the Storm Prediction Center:

Notice that the entire western half of Kentucky is in the Moderate Risk zone.  If you are viewing the blog after midnight on Wednesday, you'll want the Day 1 outlook....and here it is:

Again, this map will be valid for us after midnight tonight.  Right now, you can see that the High Risk zone is out tonight in Oklahoma.  It's a dangerous situation out there.  This activity will move into western KY tomorrow and yes, tornadoes are a strong possibility.

The problem is that a low pressure center is forecast by the models to deepen in the Kansas vicinity and slowly work toward the Ohio Valley.  This will pull even more moisture and wind into our area ahead of the low.  Also, shear profiles as you increase in altitude will be very high.  So the stage will be set for supercell type storms to form and track into Kentucky tomorrow.  These could bring strong tornadoes with them for MO, AR, TN, KY, and IL. 

It would be a great idea to keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow and monitor the NWS website or NOAA weather radio for watches and warnings as they are issued.  It could get WILD around here, especially Wednesday evening.

I'll leave you with a picture of Joplin, MO, one of our border states.  I hear that the damage there could exceed $3 Billion dollars...and that's not counting the loss of life which you can't put a price on.  This tornado was the single deadliest tornado ever recorded in the U.S.!  Take this weather seriously.

-Shawn

Storms tonight?

Check out the visible satellite image from this afternoon:

First thing to notice is that skies are starting to clear across western KY.  There are still some high cirrus clouds hanging tight down there, but for the most part the sun is beginning to shine again and instability is on the increase.  A little farther west, in Missouri, you can clearly see the low and it's associated front kicking up some thunderstorms already.  A Watch will likely be issued soon to cover that area, as severe thunderstorms will likely move across MO, AR, western TN, and western KY later this afternoon.

What remains to be seen is how far eastward this activity will make it before sunset tonight.  If we can get storms to fire again in western KY this afternoon, the clearing skies should provide enough instability to sustain them for a while and we could see storms roll into our area by tonight.  It's a long shot...but it bears watching.  Keep an eye to the sky tonight.

For the remainder of the weekend, it continues to look like very cool and damp weather will be with us.  In fact, the latest model runs are hanging up multiple cut-off lows on the eastern seaboard through the middle of next week...and that means Kentucky could see cool, rainy, cloudy, depressing weather for several days.  Good for those gardens....but bad for the spirit.


-Shawn

May has been quiet.. until now.

UPDATE:

Severe T-Storm Watch now in effect for all of central and eastern Kentucky until 20:00 (8PM).  Here is a view of the active watch box and counties under warnings:

We've finally gotten some MUCH needed sunshine lately and the ground has started to dry up just a little bit.  We really needed this, as rivers and streams were running very high and western Kentucky is seeing record flooding and a huge impact to our economy.  In addition to that, the severe weather we saw throughout April has started to wind down just a bit too.  But we may pick up a little bit of that today...

The Storm Prediction Center is watching our area for thunderstorm development this afternoon.  They may be issuing a Watch for the Bluegrass and eastern Kentucky this afternoon.  Here is the area of concern:

Notice the warm front...  roughly from Cincy to Morehead, KY to just south of Pikeville, KY.  This will be the focus for convection this afternoon.  Since the front is to our northeast, barely, that puts Frankfort, Lawrenceburg, Lexington, Elizabethtown, Somerset, Louisville, etc. in the warm sector of the storm system.  Here, moisture is on the rise due to southerly winds.  As you can also see on this chart, CAPE values could reach the 2000-3000 joules/kg range here this afternoon, which is a VERY unstable atmosphere.  The sun is out and is providing good heating to the ground.  As a shortwave trough moves through this afternoon in the upper levels, thunderstorms should explode across central Kentucky.  Some of these will drop large hail and possibly cause wind damage.  In addition, SPC shows a 5% chance of a tornado for us as well.

Keep the NOAA weather radios on alert mode today and be on the lookout for severe weather.  If/when SPC issues the Watch, I'll update the blog with the counties and areas affected.


-Shawn

An eventful weekend awaits...will the weather be eventful too?

Serious flooding continues across much of Kentucky.  Many rivers and streams are running VERY high.  The problem is by far the worst across western Kentucky though.  Check out the latest hydrograph for Paducah, KY.  Notice that the Ohio River is projected to crest only 5 feet away from the ALL TIME highest flood ever recorded, which occured in 1937!  It's no wonder that farmland, towns, houses, industrial areas, and schools are flooded and closed down until further notice.  This is going to have a major impact on the lives of the people there, as well as the economy.  They will have a LOT of cleaning up to do when the waters finally receed. 

Sadly, exactly 12 months ago they were dealing with flooding in these same locations and many homes were lost.  These poor people probably feel like giving up at this point.

Here in central Kentucky, we've got Winter-like conditions to deal with today.  Temperatures that started out in the 30s this morning have only rebounded into the 40s as of this afternoon due to stiff northwesterly flow and persistent cloudcover that just won't go away.  FROST ADVISORIES are being posted from Cincinnati to Nashville for tonight...when temperatures could dip low enough to affect crops, flowers, etc.  Keep an eye on your vegetation if you are trying to grow things already.  It's going to be another cold one tonight!

Thursday looks brilliant with high pressure anchored directly on top of Kentucky.  This should allow sunshine and calm winds with temperatures rebounding to normal for this time of year....upper 60s.

So now to the Oaks/Derby/Mother's Day weekend...

We'll see two weather systems affect us over the weekend.  The first one will move into central Kentucky just after sunrise on Friday.  Rain showers and a rumble of thunder or two will be scattered across the area all day from morning until afternoon.  This system doesn't look to exit the area until Friday evening.  Skies may clear out somewhat before sunset on Friday...but most of the day will see rain around the area.  Temperatures will hover in the 60s for highs.  Overall, not the best of days for outdoor plans.

The better part of Saturday looks great.  We'll be between weather systems and conditions should be dry all of Saturday morning and afternoon.  The second weather system will begin to affect central Kentucky by Saturday evening.  At this point, I *think* the running of the KY Derby will be dry.  However, rain will be knocking on the door by this point.  But overall, Saturday looks to be the best day of the bunch with highs in the upper 60s.  Most Derby activities will be great.

As the second weather system moves through, it could have a little more punch with it and thunderstorms could develop Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Mother's Day is looking wet...especially for the first half of the day.  By Sunday evening, this system should finally start pushing out to the east, and temperatures should warm to around 72 degrees or so by late afternoon.  Sunday evening may turn out pretty nice before sunset.

So in a nutshell... rain Friday, dry most of Saturday, rain Saturday evening into Sunday around lunchtime, and then dry again by Sunday night.  Don't let the weather get you down though...  enjoy some time with your mother and let her know what she means to you.

Oh, and Pants On Fire for the win....by several lengths.  :)


Take Care,
Shawn