Severe Thunderstorm Watch...

Good afternoon.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for much of the Bluegrass of Kentucky valid until 21:00 tonight.  I suspect that this won't be the only watch box issued as we head into the afternoon and evening hours. 

Here is a look at the current watch, as well as current warnings:

The high resolution models point toward convection blowing up rapidly across east-central Kentucky this afternoon....basically in and around the Lexington area.  This will occur as a warm front lifts northeastward through the area today, and runs into a very unstable atmosphere.  SPC has increased the tornado threat for us as well. This morning they indicated a 2% chance of a twister here...  now we are in the 5% range.

We will need to keep a sharp eye on the weather this afternoon!   Tonight and especially tomorrow morning, the cold front of this system will approach and this may trigger more severe weather, particularly if the front slows down which would allow it to come through during the afternoon hours. 

Just make sure to keep your NOAA weather radio on at all times so you can recieve the latest warnings as they come out.  If you have outdoor plans today, I'd definitely recommend having a plan in case a severe storm approaches your location.

-Shawn

More storms

Here's the latest weather map:

You can click on it for a larger view.

The warm front has passed to our north now, but the cold front is still to our west.  This puts us in the zone called the "warm sector" of the system...where warm southerly winds carry heat and moisture into our area.  This, combined with ample sunshine out there this morning and a good upper level jet flow is creating a very ripe atmosphere for thunderstorms to blow up.  In fact, storms are already going now across middle Tennessee and are moving northeast into southern Kentucky this morning.

As the day wears on, I expect thunderstorms to continue to blow up along the I 65 corridor of Kentucky and intensify into possible supercells and small line segments.  These storms will drift northeastward into the Bluegrass counties of Kentucky later this afternoon.  VERY heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and high winds with downbursts will be the threats from these storms.  Intense lightning will be a good bet too I think because of all the water vapor in our airmass.

Stay alert today, especially if you're going to be outside as these storms could blow in very quickly.  Tomorrow, the cold front on the above map will blow into Kentucky, and more severe weather will be possible along the front.

-Shawn

Storms moving in...

Storms will move into the I 65 corridor of Kentucky this evening.  Isolated wind damage and hail will be possible.  Farther east... the Lexington area looks to stay dry for at least a few hours.  We MIGHT see a little storm activity here this evening but most of this stuff will slide just to our south.  In any case...any rain we get will be welcomed!

Tomorrow..  this entire area will see a good shot at thunderstorms, and some could be severe with damage.  Stay alert if you plan to be outdoors tomorrow..  especially if you plan to be at the lake or on the river somewhere.

-Shawn

Finally... some rain.

Back in the Spring, I never thought I'd be saying this... but we need rain.  The first 14 days of June have proven to be bone dry here in Lawrenceburg, as well as most areas in the Bluegrass.  In fact, it's been 19 days since we had any measurable precipitation at all here.  The yards are turning brown and are getting a McNugget-like crispyness to them.  After record setting rains in April and into May, we are now praying for some moisture from the sky.

It looks like that might finally happen on Wednesday.  An area of low pressure will organize just west of us and move northeastward just  north of the Ohio River tomorrow.  This should be a good enough spark to finally break the sky open and create rain here in central Kentucky.  In fact, some strong storms could be possible.  That's something we'll have to keep an eye on as the Storm Prediction Center has the entire state of Kentucky in the Slight Risk zone for severe weather as of right now.

I'm going to try and post up a nice radar image to follow the rains here:

Looking ahead to the weekend, it appears that we might actually see another good shot of rainfall from Friday into the first part of next week as a frontal system may stall out in the Ohio Valley.  This would allow multiple complexes of thunderstorms to ride along the front and attack the central Kentucky area from the northwest.  One thing I've learned in my years studying weather in Kentucky is that you always have to be cautious forecasting rain in the Summer.  The models seem to pick out what should be a good rain-making system and then that type of setup never materializes and the forecast for rain becomes a bust.  So I'm sort of a "gotta' see it to believe it" kind of guy when it comes to heavy rainfall in the Summer.  But...  I'll just throw it out there that the GFS model in particular is showing a LOT of rain over the course of the upcoming weekend.  With training systems repeatedly moving in, it could possibly turn into a nasty weekend.  But.. we'll wait and fine tune that forecast later.  And if it does rain, we do need it so no complaints here.

This is what the GFS model is currently showing for Saturday afternoon:

You can see that it's wanting to stretch rainy weather from Minnesota all the way to South Carolina as storms ride along that front.

It's been a crazy year weatherwise.  From record cold and snow, to record rainfall, to tieing all-time record high temperatures in June with zero rainfall... we've seen it all this year.  I'll start looking into the July-September forecast soon.  That is always the part of the year when it gets hot, humid, and dry here...so it'll be interesting to see where we go from here in 2011.  Will this wild pattern continue?

Keep the NOAA weather radios ON and set to alert mode tomorrow.  (Really, they should be 24/7).  If you don't have one, pick one up at Kroger for $29 bucks... or if you can afford to spend a little more..the Midland WR-300 is awesome and is just a little bit more.

-Shawn