Will 2013 Come In Like a Lion Or Lamb?

We barely missed our white Christmas.  Cincy to Louisville to Owensboro to Paducah...basically the Ohio  River is where the snow line set up.  North and west of there...you had a blizzard.  On the Kentucky side of the river...misery as we dealt with cold rain and fog.

So let's look toward January.  A new year promises to bring new weather.  But will it be snowy and cold, or warm and dry?

One thing to consider is that the Arctic Oscillation has been negative for all of December.  The last time it went positive was early November.  As a result, November featured a lot of days in the 60s here in Kentucky, and even one day that hit 70 at Lexington.  November was also snowless, with none reported for the month.  And finally it was dry with less than two inches of rain for the entire month.  You see, when the Arctic Oscillation, or AO for short, is in it's positive phase, you don't get those wild swings in the jet stream.  And when you don't have a wildly meridional flowing jet you also won't get big powerful storms.

December saw the return of a negative AO and wild weather...it's just that it all barely missed Kentucky.  From tornado outbreaks in the deep south to blizzards in the Ohio Valley, we saw the return of the wild weather which was to be expected.

Looking toward January, the current forecasts for the AO index are for it to go positive again.  Some outlooks even show it going strongly positive.  At the same time, the NAO is predicted to hang out close to neutral.  The NAO being in a negative phase can lead to huge troughs in the eastern U.S. that are good for snowstorms.  With a neutral to positive NAO you don't get those big troughs.  The AO being positive adds to the lack of storminess.  Here's a look at the current AO forecast:

See how during the first week of January the AO starts to go positive and may do so in a drastic way?  If I was a betting man..  I'd say that this is a signal that at least the first 2 to 3 weeks of January 2013 could end up relatively calm across the eastern U.S.  We may not see any big snow storms in Kentucky at all during this time.  There is a chance that the temperatures could remain average to slightly above average during this timeframe also.

As of today, we're looking at a rain/snow mix on Friday night and into Saturday morning...ending as snow showers on Saturday.  Then another storm may bring snow to us for New Year's celebrations.  Let's hope that we put down some snow before January...because it's not looking good for snow lovers right now.

My winter outlook is taking a beating.  Winter is far from over, however.  Some of the worst winter storms in KY's history have occured in February and March.  Hang in there...


-Shawn

Christmas forecast for central Kentucky

Well, we were holding onto hope that a white Christmas would pan out for the Bluegrass this year, but it looks like it's not going to happen in 2012.

Recent trends in the model data have been to take areas of low pressure on a track toward the Great Lakes, rather than moving them across the southern tier of the nation.  The GFS, as always, has been showing this idea for a while now.  Overnight, the European model came on board and it is now showing the warmer solution also.

Check out the forecast for the end of this week on the European model:

Notice the low moving into the lakes.  This will force a strong cold front through the area, with some thunderstorms along the front.  The GFS model agrees:

Notice that behind the front, we may see some flurries or possibly light snow showers...but this is not going to be a big snow event for Kentucky.  If you get a dusting on your car and in your yard, consider yourself lucky.

Then we look toward the following week.  After a relatively dry and cool period around Christmas, another storm looks to blow through the area on Thursday and into Friday after Christmas.  The European model again is taking this storm into the Great Lakes from the midwest.  Here is the low sitting in Oklahoma on Thursday night, about to make it's turn toward Michigan:

And just look at those temperatures..  very warm in the eastern U.S.  Basically a repeat of what we will see later this week, played out again next week:

Like I said, GFS model has been superior in showing this solution earlier, and it agrees with the Euro.  Rain and storms after Christmas could possibly end as a flurry or two as the storm moves through the  Great Lakes.

It is interesting to note that the indices were all forecast to go negative.  If we can get the PNA to go positive then we might get into a setup where the trough would dominate the eastern U.S...but right now it's starting to look like that's not going to happen.

As always, I'll keep an eye on things.  There is a ton of cold air bottled up in Canada and it would just love to spill into the OH Valley if given the chance.  Let's hope that the pattern will give it some incentive to do so in the coming weeks.  :)

That's it for now.  Enjoy the week.


-Shawn

White Christmas in Kentucky?

Well we've almost got the first full week of meteorological winter under our belts.  It's time to start looking toward Christmas, and particularly at our odds of seeing the sought after "white Christmas".  To date, it's been fairly mild overall.  We've seen some rain, but November was a dry month compared to average.  Temperatures have been running close to normal, or slightly above.  Winter hasn't really made its self known around these parts yet.  But according to all the major computer models...that is about to change.

Notice how far north the jet stream is right now:

Now look at what happens by the week before Christmas:

See how the pattern has drastically changed?  Now the jet is flowing across the southern U.S. with a cutoff low spinning over Maine.  This will allow some of the cold air that's been bottled up in Canada to spill into the Ohio Valley.  Here's where it gets interesting.  At the same time that's happening, a low pressure area may kick up on the Gulf coast and spread moisture northward.  If this happens, it would cause snow to break out across Kentucky during the weekend leading up to Christmas Eve.  Take a look at the GFS representation:

As that storm works into the Carolinas, it spreads heavy snow into Kentucky.  This is still two weeks away and there are a lot of variables on the table that will make or break this forecast.  Don't get excited about this just yet.  My point here is this:  the cold air is coming and the chance of a white Christmas in Kentucky is still looking very good.  Fingers crossed!

-Shawn

Kentucky Winter Forecast - 2012-2013

Update 22:00 30-October-2012:

The Climate Prediction Center released an updated statement today emphasizing that neutral ENSO conditions are continuing.  However, weak El Nino conditions are still forecast to develop within the next month.  Weak El Nino conditions are predicted to carry us into the heart of winter, and then we may go back to neutral conditions again.  I have attached a graphic below showing that the La Nina conditions of last year are not going to be a factor this year.  One thing is for sure...with a flop in the ENSO conditions from last winter and the fact that we've already seen huge blocking in the NAO index...this winter is continuing to look like a much more active one than last year.  Hang on..I think the ride is about to take off.

Image is courtesy of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction.



My second semester at college, in early 1998, a severe winter storm struck Kentucky.  Over 20 inches of snow fell in many KY counties, aided by a process we call dynamic cooling.  To folks in the Lexington, KY area, this storm came to be known as the infamous "dusting" in reference to a forecast made by the late Brian Collins, meteorologist at WKYT-TV, the night before the storm struck.  Bowling Green, where I had just moved, saw about 8 inches of snow.  That was quite a rarity for the area.  I walked almost a mile, uphill, in deep snow, at 7:45 in the morning to get to class...and no, that's not a joke.

The year my wife and I married, in late 2004, the weather turned fierce and once again a major winter storm struck Kentucky.  Louisville saw almost two feet of snow in many places.  Paducah set a new record with 14 inches.  After Christmas, the temperature plummeted to well below zero.  Winter came in like a lion and it was brutal.

The winter of 2009-2010 was an exciting one as well.  December came in strong with a wind storm that produced snow and wind gusts to 55 miles per hour right here in Lawrenceburg.  We had another storm on Christmas day that brought rain and wind gusts above 30 miles per hour.  We also saw a freezing fog advisory the week before Christmas, which is unusual around here.  January finished up almost 4 degrees below average for the month, with almost 10 inches of snow.  February was also wild that winter, with a tornado outbreak on the 11th, as well as almost 5 inches of snow for the month and numerous wind storms, one which produced damaging gusts over 50 miles per hour again in Lawrenceburg.

So what do all these years have in common?  The answer:  El Nino.  El Nino refers to the general warming of the pacific equatorial waters, and the effects this warmer water has on global weather patterns.  We typically see the biggest results of an El Nino event during the winter months, which is why the ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) cycle is so critical to winter forecasts.  Generally, we go into an El Nino phase every 3-7 years.  As you can see, El Nino events have brought very wild winter weather to the Ohio Valley in recent history.  The one that occurred in 1997-1998 was the strongest one ever recorded.  Another consequence of an El Nino year is that tornado outbreaks the following spring are more common, and coming out of the 1997-1998 El Nino Kentucky did indeed have a serious outbreak on the 16th of April.  One of those storms caused $512 million in damages to the city of Bowling Green.

As we head toward winter once again, people as always are curious; what does this winter hold in store for us?  Well, an interesting piece to the puzzle this year is going to be the return of our good friend El Nino.  There are many pieces to the winter forecast puzzle.  We look at things such as the Atlantic Oscillation, the North American Oscillation, previous analog years that may give us clues, the current status of drought and ground water reserves in the U.S., etc.  There is no doubt, however, that the status of the ENSO cycle is a huge key to what is in store for us.

The current projections call for El Nino to be weak to moderate as we head into winter.  This bodes well for the snow lovers in the area.  Another thing to consider is that history is also on our side.  The decades of the 1950s, 1970s, and 1990s all featured some severe winters.  That would put the 2010s in line to follow suit at some point.  There is also a japanese seasonal weather model that accurately predicted the winter weather we saw last year in the eastern U.S.  When all other forecasts busted...this weather model was onto something.  For this winter, it's predicting a reversal of what we saw last year.  It is predicting cold and snowy conditions to prevail in the eastern part of the nation.

With all the signs looking great for cold and snow, I'm confident in making an early forecast for above average snowfall for Kentucky this winter.  I think we'll see snow in each month from November - March, with possible snow storms with heavier amounts in January.  I think that temperatures will be slightly below average during the December - February period.  And finally, I believe that the risk of ice storms will be slightly above average due to the general storm track being pushed to the southern tier of the nation in response to El Nino conditions.  I do not believe that a mild winter is coming up like the one we saw last year.  If the forecast works out, the economy will be looking up for companies that make snow shovels and sidewalk salt.

I will try to update the forecast with some visual charts and maps in the coming weeks.  Take care and enjoy the beautiful fall colors this year thanks to the frequent rainfall we've gotten recently.

-Shawn

Record Cold in Kentucky; What Does This Mean for Winter 2012-2013?

Hello and welcome to winter...er, I mean, fall.  Temperatures over the past 10 days have been more reminiscent of late October than September.  In fact, yesterday we touched 37 degrees in Lawrenceburg.  This morning many of the Kentucky mesonet sites hit the freezing mark.  In many towns this is the coldest start to September 24^th we’ve seen in almost 90 years.  And the record setting cold might not be done just yet.

 

Temperatures this week will modify and southerly winds will bring a little more humidity to the air.  It will feel more normal for this time of year. Thunderstorms may also move through KY on just about any day this week as a slow moving front sort of stalls out near the Bluegrass.  The last week of September looks to go out pretty nice overall.  We could still use some rain and we should get at least some rain this week.  Enjoy the warmth, because there are some signs that this week may be the end of warm weather for 2012.

 

Next week, the computer models are indicating that a couple more large troughs could sweep into the eastern U.S. and drop our temperatures once again as we start to get into October.  Areas that didn’t see frost this morning will have another shot at it by the end of next week.  A lot of folks are wondering what this means for winter.  A cold pattern is already setting up here in our part of the world and it’s still September.  Let me preface this by saying that nobody has proven any ability to accurately forecast winter from months away.  It’s just not yet possible to make accurate winter forecasts.  Having said that, early indications are that the eastern half of the U.S. including Kentucky may see a cold and snowy winter coming up.  There are a lot of global indices and patterns showing signs of this.  It is too early to make a winter forecast right now, seeing as how we just began astronomical autumn a few days ago.  Next month I’ll do a more detailed look at what winter 2012-2013 may have in store for us.

 

The official government forecast, just for grins and giggles, calls for mild and dry weather throughout winter (December-February) in Kentucky.  Obviously they are interpreting the signs that are showing up in a totally opposite fashion compared to all the private sector weather forecasting companies.  But here’s a look at what they’re going with:

 

Temperature is above average for winter:

 

 

And precipitation is predicted below average for winter:

 

 

 

Interesting, huh?  Like I said, this is one forecast and there are many signs pointing toward just the opposite.  So let’s give it another month of fall weather and look at the data again and then I’ll put out a winter forecast.  Take care and enjoy the weather this week...it’s going to be nice!

 

 

Shawn

 

UK vs. WKU football weather

Good afternoon everybody.  We are enjoying a gorgeous week weather-wise as fall gives us a real taste of what’s to come.  Lawrenceburg bottomed out at 49°F this morning, while the KY Mesonet site in Frankfort hit 47°F!  It was a chilly ride to work with the top down on the Jeep to say the least.  Our afternoons have been seeing 70s and just perfect conditions with low humidity.  What a treat this week is.

 

On Friday, the models have been advertising a cold front sweeping in from the northwest.  Over the last several runs of the GFS model, the trend seems to be that this front should wash out a little bit as it moves into Kentucky.  I am not expecting any severe weather with this, and I also do not expect heavy rain in central KY.  This should be a 12 hour window of clouds and scattered showers and then it’s gone.  Check out the latest GFS model run hot off the press:

 

Friday night:

 

 

 

Saturday morning:

 

 

Saturday night:

 

 

 

As you can see, the GFS model takes the front through Friday night and Saturday morning.  Only 0.1” of rain max is predicted with this frontal passage.  By Saturday afternoon, we’re drying out and by Saturday night we are possibly sunny and cool!  Perfect football weather for the UK vs. WKU game at Commonwealth Stadium.

 

The one, and only one, bad thing about this crisp cool weather and low humidity is that this is when weeds get busy pollinating.  Ragweed pollen, in particular, is running very high this week.  The dry and cool air helps the pollen to distribute easily, and allergy sufferers like myself are miserable during this time of year.  Conditions should improve in the next 3-5 weeks.

 

Take care and enjoy this beautiful weather. And GO TOPS!!!

 

 

-Shawn

Another round of severe weather for Kentucky?

Update:  10:54 Friday

The latest runs of the models are still remaining consistent with timing on this system.  The Hi-Res NAM model shows no thunderstorms in the Bluegrass during the day today.  It continues to hold off on any rain until after 2:00 Saturday morning.

By this time, darkness has killed a lot of the dynamics with the atmosphere and the line is in a weakening phase.  What I am expecting is a couple of isolated storms here and there in central KY today...but most places will stay dry.  After midnight, a squall line will move into Kentucky from the northwest.  It'll bring some lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rains...but severe weather will be minimal.  Folks closer to the OH River have a slightly better shot at wind damage.  The Lexington area looks to be OK.

Friday night high school football looks to be in good shape.  We need the rain so I'll be happy to see it come while I sleep.

IF things change I'll update later.  

Take care,

Shawn

Previous post:

The models are slowing the approach of the cold front tomorrow.  Here is the latest Hi-Res NAM depiction:

Notice that no thunderstorms affect central Kentucky until after midnight...and in this model depiction not until after 2:00 AM Saturday morning.  By this time, the instability will be decreasing and the severe threat will be subsiding greatly.

The GFS model supports this idea, but does allow for some isolated storms Friday evening before this main show arrives later.  Keep your eyes peeled Friday afternoon and evening just in case.  But for now, it appears that Friday activities during the evening will not be affected by severe weather.

I’ll update again tomorrow morning.

Take care,

Shawn

Isaac and his effects on Kentucky

Hurricane Isaac is now a tropical storm and is growing weaker with each passing hour.  But he's still packing some punch in terms of rainfall.  After being a misery to the folks on the LA, MS, and AL coastlines...Isaac looks to be a blessing in disguise as he churns northward into the midwestern United States.

Check out the current forecast for rainfall from the Hydrologic Prediction Center:

Now check out the current areas that are in "severe" to "exceptional" drought conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor:

See where I'm going with this?  The areas of the nation being affected worst by the drought conditions are the exact same areas that Isaac will drop the most rainfall on this coming weekend.  I'm sure there are farmers everywhere rejoicing.

What does this mean for Kentucky?  Well occasional showers and storms will be common off and on throughout the Labor Day weekend.  Is it just me, or is Labor Day always the day our weather turns foul around here?  In any case, flooding and severe weather are low concerns in central KY at this point in time.  But we will welcome any rain that we can get after a long, hot summer.

Signs for the upcoming winter are looking more and more interesting all the time... but I'll save that for later.  ;)


Take care,
Shawn

Kentucky Weather Flashback: 2007

Let's go back five years and take a walk down memory lane.  The year 2007 was a wild one in Kentucky.  Just about every extreme you can experience weatherwise was found here at some point during the year.  It's a year that won't soon be forgotten.

February brought cold and winter weather.  It was pretty typical for a Kentucky winter month with some ice even included in the mix.  It wouldn't last long though, as March came in warm and stayed that way.  In fact, March ended up being one of the warmest ever recorded.  The wild swings in the weather for the year had begun.

April flipped 180 degrees and turned into one of the coldest on record.  We saw many mornings in the 25 degree range which resulted in the loss of many trees and caused extensive vegetation damage.  From an economic standpoint it was a fairly severe blow to producers and gardeners.  Flowers and fruit trees, as well as shade and ornamental trees had gotten off to an early start thanks to the warm weather in March.  The killing frosts of April, which were unusually severe, took it's toll.

When May rolled around it was severe weather that raked the state over.  The 15th of the month featured a particularly bad outbreak of storms that caused wind damage and dropped some large hail, and put the entire state in the danger zone.

The spring season was up and down like a roller coaster, but by far the biggest story of 2007 would be the drought and ensuing heat that carried us through summer.  When June came in, the rains seemed to totally shut off.  We saw almost no precipitation again until fall, and by then the entire state of Kentucky was in "D3 - Extreme Drought" on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with portions of southeastern Kentucky in "D4 - Exceptional Drought" which is the worst possible rating an area can receive.  Here's a view of the map as of October 2007:

Farmers and agricultural producers had a terrible season.  They had to haul water in from other areas just to keep things going and try to survive the summer and into the end of growing season.  It was one of the worst droughts Kentucky has ever seen.

Along with the drought came the heat.  August was especially hot, finishing up several degrees above average for the month.  At the Lexington official station, 23 days of August were at or above 90 degrees, with a temperature over 100 on two of those days.  At the Bowling Green official station, 30 days of August were at or above 90 degrees with readings in the 100s on five occasions!  The only day that didn't see 90 was the last day of the month which hit 88 for a high.  The heat was relentless and the longevity of the heat was very unusual.  The terrible drought and dry ground helped to make the heat wave possible.  Kentuckians began to pray for any moisture they could get.  Any stray thunderstorm that happened to pop up was considered a joyous occasion.  That is, until October.

October saw the rains finally return, but unfortunately this happened in the form of a massive tornado outbreak unlike any we'd seen in recent years.  Eight tornadoes ripped through Kentucky making the October 18, 2007 event the worst tornado outbreak on record.  The strongest October tornado ever also occurred during this event, which was rated EF-3.  Kentucky had a reported 11 people injured from the storms, but no fatalities.  There were fatalities in surrounding states, however, as a result of the same weather system.

From warmth, to killing frost, to extreme heat and drought, and then to dangerous severe weather, 2007 will go down as one of the wildest years ever seen in Kentucky.

-Shawn

Severe Weather in Kentucky Tonight

The 105°F heat index readings are going away today.  This weekend should be very normal for this time of year with beautiful summer weather.  But the transition from miserable to normal isn’t going to happen easily.  A round of severe weather is going to explode today across much of the eastern half of the nation, primarily in the Ohio Valley and into New England.

We have just about all the ingredients to make the cake that we need.  Instability is VERY high (up to 4,000 joules per kilogram!)  The surface is being heated by the sun uninhibited by clouds.  Temperatures are in the 90s to near 100 by afternoon, creating strong lapse rates.  There is decent wind shear of 40-50 knots.  We’ve got lift in the form of a cold front approaching the area.  Dewpoints are running in the 70s so water vapor content for fuel is plentiful.  Basically, this is a prime recipe for severe thunderstorms.

Here is the current wind damage outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

As you can see, northern sections of Kentucky, basically north of I-64, are in the 30% range.  Cincinnati is in the hatched area, where “significant” wind damage may occur.  Anyone inside the red zone on this chart needs to pay special attention to the weather today.

I think the timeframe we’re looking at is from about 17:00 (5pm) through midnight.   Many of the models are showing convection holding off here until well after dark.  The Hi-Res NAM doesn’t really get things going here until 2:00 tomorrow morning.  But I think that we’ll see a very active squall line threatening Kentucky before sunset tonight. 

In this setup, tornadoes are not a major threat to Kentucky.  Wind damage and flash flooding will be the biggest problems here.  Remember, the #1 killer in thunderstorms is WATER.  Floods kill more people annually than lightning or twisters.  If you see running water across a roadway, do not drive through it, even if you have a Jeep.  It’s tempting, I know.  But don’t do it.  Moving water has significant power.

Keep the NOAA weather radios on today and keep your eyes peeled.  We had storm fatalities in KY last week...let’s have zero this week.

-Shawn

Where is the Kentucky rain?

So when is it going to rain?  That’s the question on everyone’s mind now that Lawrenceburg finds itself firmly in drought conditions.  We saw 0.75” of rain last weekend, but since then we’ve received only a trace of rain, while Harrodsburg, Danville, Lexington, Winchester, and Georgetown have all seen soaking thunderstorms.  In a year that showed no seasonal signs of an impending drought, we are now in the midst of a fairly serious situation which has also been compounded by a record-setting heat wave.  So, what gives?  When is it our turn for some rain?

 

First of all, we can at least be thankful the heat wave is gone.  As of yesterday, July 8, 7 out of the last 11 days saw the air temperature reach 100-104 degrees.  To have this happen beginning in June is record setting in itself.  On Sunday the heat index reading in Lawrenceburg briefly touched 114 degrees.  To say that it’s been miserable lately would be an understatement.  Thankfully, a cold front is working through the state today, and the 100 degree air is gone and doesn’t look to return anytime soon.

 

As far as precipitation goes, I suppose we must be happy for our neighbors who all received good rains from the recent storms.  Every county in Kentucky can use the rain, and so whoever gets it is fortunate.  Going through the remainder of this week, it appears that Friday is our best shot at some rain here in Anderson County.  Stuck between a couple of ridges, we should find ourselves in a favorable environment to generate some rain here.  In fact, take a look at the most recent run of the GFS model.  It shows a bulls eye of 2.5” of rain centered right on the Lawrenceburg area this coming Friday.  We can only hope that this time around we’ll be in luck.

 

 

The current U.S. Drought Monitor has Lawrenceburg on the cusp of the D1 “Moderate Drought” area as of today, July 9.  The new outlook is issued on Thursday and I think with the recent rains, most of KY will remain the same as what we see now.

 

Looking at the rest of July, it appears that the heat ridge won’t build back in until the end of the month at soonest.  Our weather pattern should be a little cooler and wetter over the next 10-14 days and hopefully we can get a few instances of rain during that time.  Remember, we are statistically in the wettest time of the year here in central KY, so if we go into Fall abnormally dry we’re going to have problems.  Let’s hope for some rain to head our way before the heat of late July and August moves in.  I still believe that we do have a good chance at improving our drought conditions before summer is out.

 

 

-Shawn

Heat Wave in Kentucky

This heat is crazy... but you know, honestly it hasn't FELT oppressive outside to me yet this year.  The humidity is only 37% here in Lawrenceburg at the time of this writing, yielding a heat index a degree cooler than the ambient air temp.  So...not bad.

We've all heard the headlines... HEAT WAVE COMING.  Here's my take..  it IS going to be hot during the last half of this week and going into the weekend, however, it's not going to be nearly as bad as what we've seen during late summer in the past two years.  I'd like to remind you...we've seen heat index readings in the 120s (not a typo) during the last two summers.  That is literally life threatening weather.  By contrast, current computer model forecasts are only taking us into the 100-103 degree range later this week.  So, this isn't some heat wave of epic proportions.  It'll be hot...but nothing strange.  The only strange thing about it is that it's occurring at the end of  June instead of the end of July.

In addition to that, the computer models have been over-estimating temps. lately.  We've seen afternoon highs cooler than what they are predicting.  I wouldn't be surprised in the Lexington/Frankfort/Lawrenceburg area doesn't reach 100 degrees at all this week.

The source region for this airmass is the desert southwest, so it will be very bearable outside the rest of this week.  Just remember as always to drink plenty of water and wear a hat to keep the sun off your head.  Long sleeved shirts that are made of a breathable material will keep your body cooler than a t-shirt.  The people I feel really bad for are the NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers who will be taking the track Saturday night right here in Kentucky.  It gets REALLY hot inside those race cars on a normal day...toss in a 101 degree heat index outside and those guys and girl (if Danica races) will be sweating at a dangerous rate.  I'm sure they will hydrate really well before the race.  They are also in excellent physical condition...contrary to what the people who say they are not athletes believe.  :)

The next good shot at rain comes early next week...and it's not a sure bet.  So we need to start earnestly praying for rain now.  We are still in "abnormally dry" conditions in the Bluegrass and I expect an upgrade to D1 drought status soon, possibly as early as tomorrow.  Folks...  it's not looking good right now.  Not just for agriculture, but also for drinking water supplies.

Take care and enjoy this weather.  Remember, before you know it we'll be complaining about ice and snow.

-Shawn

Kentucky goes into drought...we hoped this wouldn't happen.

As I mentioned in the Summer Outlook, indications for the summer are that there is neither a good signal for wet/cool weather nor drought.  There are equal chances that it could go either way this year.  ENSO conditions are neutral and may change soon, but La Nina is currently over with and the pattern for North America isn’t conducive for definite drought or otherwise.

 

However...despite what data we have to go on to make a season outlook, we are dry here in central Kentucky regardless.  In fact, as of June 19 we are now in the “D0 – Abnormally  Dry” zone on the U.S. Drought Monitor.  The scale is D0 to D4, with D1 the beginning stages of actual drought.  So almost all of central Kentucky is now in the dry stages preceding a drought.  Not a good sign.  There is a small sliver of eastern Kentucky that is already in the “D1 – Moderate Drought” phase. 

 

 

 

The bad news about this is that drought breeds more drought usually.  When the ground gets dry and void of moisture, you lose a lot of ability to produce clouds.  And with no tall clouds, you get no rain.  So it’s one of those situations where once you get into drought it’s like a machine that keeps feeding itself.

 

We do have a small chance at a storm tonight, as a cold front drops into Kentucky...but the time of day is not favorable at all for this to be a widespread event.  Another small shot at rain comes Sunday but it’s the same situation...not a ton of moisture to work with really and the timing is bad.  So we could easily stay dry both tonight and on Sunday.  Therefore, the dry conditions look to get worse over at least the next 7-10 days.

 

I was really hoping for conditions to remain somewhat normal going into summer with no drought this year, but right now things are starting to fall apart.  Let’s hope that the tropics remain active...perhaps we can get some land falling tropical systems to bring nourishing rainfall to the Ohio Valley.

 

 

-Shawn

Kentucky Weather Flashback: 2004

Back in the "dead of winter" I did a write-up about the ferocious winter of 1994.  From massive snowfalls, to ice storms, to the coldest temperatures EVER recorded in the Commonwealth of Kentucky, 1994 permanently changed the way society views winter weather in this state.

Now that we're into meteorological summer in the Bluegrass, I thought I'd do another flashback to a year that featured wild weather and an unusual summer: 2004.

The year 2004 was a quiet year weatherwise in the beginning, with little snowfall in January and February.  We saw roughly five inches of snowfall during both months combined, and the temperatures were spot-on normal for the time of year.  Things would quickly turn into anything but normal, however.  Spring became warmer than average with temperatures a few degrees above our normals for the March-May time frame.  Rainfall during spring was the big story, with nearly 20 inches falling from March through May in many areas of central Kentucky which led to some flooding.  Similar to 2012, severe thunderstorm reports were isolated at best, except for one large outbreak of tornadoes.

It was summer, however, that got the most news coverage.  The word drought was never mentioned, as we saw ample rainfall from beginning to end.  June brought 5.05 inches of rainfall at the official reporting station in Lexington, July was a soaker with 8.68 inches, and even August saw 4.06 inches of precipitation.  The summer of 2004 was a farmer's dream.  To make things even better, we did not see a single 90 degree temperature the entire year.  The highest reading was 89 degrees which occurred on the 19th of August.  However, August also featured several days in the 70s and finished as our 4th coolest August ever.  The entire summer was relatively cool and wet.  The time of year that normally scorches us with heat would prove not to in 2004.  We hadn't seen a year with no 90 degree days since 1974.  It was a truly comfortable summer that left many people wishing it could be that way every year.

The summer season wasn't perfect though.  On the 13th of July, a derecho swept across the state bringing mass destruction.  A derecho is a large, organized line of thunderstorms often shaped like a bow that rapidly drops south across an area and typically causes serious wind damage.  The derecho that moved through Kentucky that night brought widespread 60-80 miles per hour winds.  The weather station at WKU recorded a gust of 84 miles per hour.  Louisville Gas and Electric reported that it caused the most power outages they had seen since the famous 1974 "super outbreak" of tornadoes.  Trees were snapped across a large area of the state and lots of property damage reports were sent to the National Weather Service office in Louisville from all over central Kentucky.  Check out the shear number of damage reports that came in that night.  We rarely see this much damage:

When fall came around the rains continued.  October was the 4th wettest ever recorded here, and even November had frequent rainfall.  The heavy rains of October and November turned into heavy snow in December.  Winter came in like the proverbial lion with a snowstorm that dropped two feet of accumulation near Louisville and caused many areas in that part of Kentucky to shut down completely.

Despite all the intense weather we saw in 2004, and the many records that were broken, it would be the summer period that would stay on the minds of Kentuckians for years to come.  The dry ground and summer heat and humidity that is a staple of life in our state during the longest days of the year never materialized, and it was like a refreshing gift from nature.  We have already seen readings above 90 degrees this year, but if you look at the year as a whole it has been very similar to 2004 in many ways.  Could summer shape up to be cooler and wetter than average here again?  There are many people who would be very thankful if it did, and I myself am one of them.


-Shawn


Some data assembled by the National Weather Service office, Louisville, Kentucky

Severe weather outlook for Kentucky

We’ve been largely without severe weather in Kentucky for quite some time now.  April and May turned out to be very quiet months here... and usually those are our two biggest severe weather months.  We’ve been fortunate.  However, on this final day of May, it looks like the month is going to “go out like a lion”.

 

We have a weather system currently taking shape over the Plains and spreading severe weather from there eastward.  As the low moves toward western Kentucky and southern Illinois this afternoon, it will lift a warm front northward through the Bluegrass of Kentucky.  Scattered thunderstorms may accompany this feature through the afternoon hours. 

 

Then we will be in the “warm sector” of the storm system.  This is when things may get really interesting.  With the low nearby, and warm moist air in place, being lifted by a sweeping cold front..  the stage will be set for severe thunderstorms to fire up tonight across Kentucky.  There is a pretty good chance that wind damage will be seen around the state.  A threat of a few tornadoes does also exist.  You’ll want to keep the NOAA weather radios nearby this afternoon and especially tonight.  Don’t be caught off guard.

 

Here is the current outlook for tornadoes from the Storm Prediction Center:

 

 

 

You can see that we are firmly in the bulls eye for any of this activity today.  Here is the outlook for wind damage:

 

 

 

 

 

Stay safe this evening!

 

 

-Shawn

Summer 2012 Outlook for Kentucky

 

As of May 10^th, this year is still the warmest year ever recorded in the bluegrass area of Kentucky.  The official average temperature at Lexington for the period January 1 through May 10 is 49.1°F.  This surpasses the old record of 47.7°F set in 1921.  Some say Spring got an early start this year.  I say Winter never really began.

 

As far as precipitation goes, we are right at normal for the year.  The average from January 1 through May 10 is 16.24” at the Lexington station, and we only recorded 14.82” during that timeframe.  However, this doesn’t take into consideration the nearly 2.00” of rainfall we received over the Mothers Day weekend.  So we’re looking really great in terms of rainfall for the gardens and crop fields.

 

So where do we go from here?  The official outlook for Summer issued by the Climate Prediction Center indicates that neither drought nor a wet summer is likely.  They are predicting, based upon the global weather patterns expected, that Kentucky will see a very average season in terms of rainfall from June through September.  Temperatures are expected to be very close to average through late summer, and then possibly slightly warmer than normal as summer comes to a close.

 

The La Nina conditions that have ruled for many months are now officially gone and we are currently in a neutral phase on the ENSO cycle.  The prediction for the rest of summer is for it to remain neutral.  We may see El Nino develop as we head toward late Fall 2012.

 

So in a nutshell, after several years of wild swings in the weather, all indications are that 2012 is going to turn out to be a very average year with both temperatures and precipitation close to our normals.  As of right now there is nothing that would lead me to believe that a severe drought is likely this year, and that is great news.

 

What isn’t great news is the pollen levels for people like myself who suffer from seasonal allergies.  2012 has been one of the worst years ever, because of the very warm winter we experienced, the record warmth in spring, and the plentiful rainfall.  Typically, we have to fight tree pollen in Spring, grass pollen in Summer, and weeds in Fall.  The Fall Ragweed season is by far the worst and affects millions of Americans.  I predict that the late August through early October period of 2012 will be one of the most severe allergy seasons that we’ve ever dealt with.  It’s time to stock up on those anti-histamines.

 

 

-Shawn

Another round of severe weather for Kentucky

Here we go again...

 

Severe T-Storm Watch in effect for all of central Kentucky until 10:00PM tonight.  Here’s a look at the counties in the watch:

 

 

 

 

North of I-64, a Tornado Watch is in effect rather than a Severe T-storm Watch.  Keep your eyes peeled tonight.

 

This should be a scattered event.  Not everyone will see storms tonight.  They will just pop up randomly in this hot, moist airmass and may drop large hail.  Report any damage to law enforcement so we can get the information to the NWS offices and help them out.

 

 

 

Shawn

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for central Kentucky

Here is a look at the Severe T-storm Watch, in effect for all of central Kentucky and most of Ohio, until 1:00AM Tuesday.  This doesn't look to  be a major severe weather outbreak, but isolated damage from these storms is likely.

 

Severe Weather in Kentucky Tomorrow Night?

To be honest, I’ve been very surprised at how quiet April has been in Kentucky.  We’ve been largely devoid of severe weather around here lately, and I expected this month to be our biggest storm month of the year.  I’m sure most folks don’t mind, considering how destructive March was.

 

Looks like Wednesday night could get a little interesting around here though.  We have a setup about to take shape that could lead to a textbook MCS (mesoscale convective system) developing that would drop into Kentucky from the northwest.

 

Here are the latest charts off the GFS model:

 

Relative humidity about 5,000 ft. above the ground is predicted to be high Wednesday night.

 

 

Surface winds are forecast to be from the southwest as the system approaches.

 

 

 

At the same time, upper level winds will be strong and from the northwest which will create some shear.

 

 

So it appears that the atmosphere may end up primed for some healthy thunderstorms around here tomorrow night.  MCS activity like this frequently occurs in May-July around here, but can happen other months as well.  Many times it leads to wind damage and possibly hail damage as well.  The Storm Prediction Center currently has all of central Kentucky outlined in a Slight Risk for severe storms tomorrow.  Keep an eye on it!

 

The remainder of the week and into the weekend will be wet with chances for rain daily.  Sorry... I can’t help it.

 

-Shawn

Rain Chances for this Weekend - Central Kentucky

Everyone has heard by now that their outdoor plans for this weekend are doomed.  The weather is going to be nasty.  Well, there are indications that this might not be entirely true.  I’ve been watching the models this week and one thing I’ve seen in the GFS is a trend toward a slightly drier weekend.  That’s not to say it isn’t going to rain, but it looks to me like the weekend as a whole might not be a total washout.

 

The ECMWF model is acting strange (as usual) and hasn’t been very consistent with handling this system.  Each run looks a little different.  The NAM is more consistent and shows more rain for us, especially on Saturday.  But this is a known bias of the model...it tends to overestimate precipitation amounts a lot of the time.  So if we stick to the GFS which has been consistent from run to run this week, this is what we see in today’s mid-day run:

 

 

Notice how central Kentucky is shaded in the lightest green color on the scale.  This is the 24-hour total precipitation chart, valid close to midnight on Sunday.  So, basically this map shows you how much rainfall the model is predicting will fall throughout the entire day on Saturday.  The light green shading represents 0.01 to 0.10” of rainfall.  A tenth of an inch of rainfall in the course of an entire day isn’t much.

 

The point here is that the bluegrass area of Kentucky might not see outdoor plans totally wrecked this weekend.  While clouds and a chance of rain will be with us, there is also a chance that a lot of us will see very little rain.  Right now I would go with a 50% chance of rain in the Lexington area and surrounding counties, but later model runs may trend drier or wetter so we’ll keep watching it.  For the time being, if you have outdoor plans don’t cancel them just yet.

 

 

-Shawn

Red Flag Warning for Kentucky

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Kentucky this afternoon.  A Red Flag Warning means that high winds, low humidity, and dry conditions are creating a very dangerous threat of wild fires.  Use extreme caution if you must do outdoor burning today.

 

 

In addition to this, a Freeze Watch is in effect for tonight.  Temperatures by dawn tomorrow may dip to near the freezing mark, which could potentially damage flowers, trees, and other vegetation that is temperature sensitive.  If you need to cover your plants, be sure to do so tonight.

 

Otherwise, the weather looks absolutely gorgeous the rest of this week with sunshine and temperatures that are perfectly normal for this time of year.  The next threat of thunderstorms comes late this weekend and into the first of next week. 

 

 

-Shawn

Kentucky Easter Forecast

It appears that we are going to be lucky in Kentucky this weekend.  A period of dry and warm weather is going to slide through the Commonwealth over the course of the Easter holiday.  Let’s break it down in detail.

 

The morning of Good Friday will bring northerly winds behind a pesky weather system that is currently affecting our weather daily.  This system looks to finally push off to the east Friday and leave cooler air in its wake.  In fact, the latest run of the GFS model indicates that temperatures early Friday morning may dip to the freezing level.  Gardeners and persons with sensitive vegetation need to watch the weather this weekend closely as frosty morning lows look likely.  Here’s a shot at 8:00 Friday morning:

 

 

Temperatures by Friday afternoon should recover into the upper 50s or near 60.  As high pressure works into Kentucky on Saturday, skies should remain sunny and temperatures should rebound into the middle 60s after another frosty start.

 

On Easter morning, the high pressure will have drifted east into the Appalachian region.  The next weather system will start to move out of the Midwest and toward the Ohio Valley.  I believe that with high pressure to our east, and the front not quite into Kentucky from the west just yet, sunrise services at local churches should be in great shape.  In fact, the sunrise should be visible in the eastern sky and temperatures will likely be in the mid-40s at 7:00 AM.  Easter services look to have a nice weather forecast to look forward to.

 

As the front pushes through Kentucky during the day Sunday, typically we would see showers and storms break out along the front.  But the last few runs of the computer models are indicating that there will not be enough moisture in the air to work with.  It appears that this frontal passage may be mostly a dry one.  I’d say that a 10% chance of a rain shower is a fair forecast on Sunday.  Clouds may thicken up, and winds will shift around to the north, but rainfall should be spotty at best on Sunday.  Temperatures should rise into the 60s during the afternoon.  All in all, not a bad forecast.  Here’s how the latest run of the GFS model sees things at 2:00 PM on Sunday:

 

 

So in summary, dry weather should prevail Friday through Sunday morning, with only a slight chance of a shower on Sunday afternoon.  Temperatures will be cold in the mornings, and seasonable in the afternoons.  Looking down the road it appears that a trough will move into the eastern half of the nation next week.  This may drop our temperatures significantly, and many days next week could see highs only in the 50s.  Enjoy this weekend!

 

-Shawn

More Tornadoes in Kentucky ?

On or around Monday night it appears that a power, negatively tilted cold front will sweep into Kentucky.  You can see this clearly on today’s 12Z run of the GFS model:

 

 

 

At the same time, in the upper levels we will see the nose of a powerful 100 knot jet streak move over the lower Ohio Valley as you can also see on the 12Z GFS run:

 

 

What is likely to happen is that this turning of the winds with height will aid in the development of strong to severe thunderstorms.  It’s too early to pin down exactly where this will happen.  But I believe that most of southern Indiana, central and western Kentucky, and parts of western Tennessee will have the potential for all modes of severe weather (wind damage, tornadoes, and hail). 

 

The models were wanting to bring this into the area on Tuesday.  But the past few runs have sped up the timing a little and it’s now shown moving in as early as Monday night.  This situation will bear watching as we head into late weekend.  Please stay tuned to local weather forecasts in case this severe weather episode does indeed develop.

 

EASTER.... right now a slight chance of showers and temps. in the 50s for Easter Sunday.  This is 10 days out, so changes are likely.

 

 

-Shawn