Tornado Watch for western Kentucky

Here is a look at the Tornado Watch in effect for western KY tonight:

 

 

 

Additional watches may be issued for other parts of Kentucky throughout the night.  The squall line is clearly visible moving into the MS River valley at this time.  Keep the NOAA radios on and be alert as you sleep tonight.

 

 

-Shawn

One Mess of a Weekend!

Well, I've been talking for a week now about the possibility of an ice storm setting up tonight.  No one else was mentioning it.  TV mets., NWS forecasts, private sources such as WeatherBug or The Weather Channel...  nope..  none of them were talking about it.  Perhaps it's because they don't give the GFS model any credit.  ;)

In any case, we are here and now we will begin to watch this weather unfold.  The question is where exactly will the freezing line set up?  It appears right now that it'll be somewhere near the OH river.  But until we see exactly where it establishes itself we won't know where the freezing rain will cause a mess.  Here is a radar shot to track the precip:

You can follow temperatures near your town with the Kentucky Mesonet, courtesy of my Alma Mater:

Notice the gradient!  As of this writing, it's 28 in Covington and 51 near the TN/KY border!  Obviously, anywhere you see the temps. at or below 32 on this map you will see freezing rain tonight.  Travel in these areas will be a nightmare, so I would not advise it!

As if this isn't enough..  this ice storm will be just the beginning a wild weekend. Sunday night, a strong cold front is still forecast to sweep through Kentucky.  Meanwhile, a strong upper level streak in the jet stream will impend upon the area in a curvy fashion from the southwest.  In addition, good southerly flow will replenish atmospheric moisture.  The result..  a severe weather outbreak once again.  A few tornadoes will also be possible Sunday night.  I can't stress enough how important a NOAA weather radio is to own.   I would not be surprised to see this weekend end with a Tornado Watch in place for most of Kentucky.

-Shawn

Another severe weather outbreak in Kentucky?

Here is the upper level chart valid during the wee hours Monday morning.  Notice that powerful jet streak bending into western KY.  This will serve as an excellent “exhaust” for the thunderstorms.

 

 

 

 

Now check out the surface chart from the same time.  A strong neutral to negatively tilted cold front slamming through Kentucky to provide the spark, plenty of moisture to work with on warm southerly winds to provide the fuel for the storms, and good “intake” flow to power them through the night. 

 

 

 

 

 

Yep, that’s a textbook recipe for another severe weather outbreak.  The only thing we have NOT working in our favor is the time of day.  The middle of the night is not the perfect time for generating strong storms.  But..  the dynamics with this system may overcome that.

 

We just experienced the largest tornado outbreak for the month of January in Kentucky history.  This all unfolded with NO severe weather watches in effect.  The Storm Prediction Center was totally asleep I guess.  People NEED to own a NOAA weather radio, preferably with S.A.M.E. programming, and keep it on alert mode 24/7.  S.A.M.E. will allow you to only get warnings for YOUR county...so it will not annoy you.  But by leaving it on 24/7 you will have notice of what’s going on...even when SPC drops the ball and doesn’t issue a watch.  At least you can get the warnings and have a little time to take shelter.  I strongly recommend everyone to get one this year and use it.

 

So, following a close miss by an ice storm Friday night, which is going to make a giant mess across southern Indiana and southern Ohio..   we now will be watching for more wind damage to possibly affect KY at the end of this coming weekend.  Stay tuned!

 

 

-
Shawn

Severe Thunderstorms to affect Kentucky

A squall line of severe thunderstorms has developed overnight and is moving toward central Kentucky.  Tornado warnings have been issued in southern Indiana, but so far no tornado warnings have been issued in Kentucky.  There are currently numerous severe thunderstorm warnings out on this line of storms as it plows eastward.

 

All of central Kentucky will be under the gun for potentially damaging wind gusts as this line moves through later today.  Stay alert and keep those NOAA weather radios on alert mode!

 

Here is current radar as of 10:00 this morning:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-Shawn

Ice Storm for Kentucky?

Welcome to a new week.  We begin today with rain and a few thunderstorms headed in our direction.  The winds are gusty outside already and will continue to be the rest of the day.  Moisture is pooling to our south and will move in later today.  Rain will be common here in the next 36 hours.  Hopefully it'll wash all that road salt off the highways.

I just wanted to stop by and update my thoughts from last week.  I was discussing the possibility of an ice storm setting up over Kentucky later this week.  Well, the modeling coming in every 6 to 12 hours is going back and forth, trying to pin down exactly how this situation is going to develop Friday.  The  most recent run of the GFS model is back to showing an ice storm here, very similar to what it was showing last week.  Check it out:

Above freezing air is set up across all of Kentucky at the 5,000 feet level.  Notice the blue line across southern Indiana and the Cincinnati area:

That's valid at 23:00 (11PM) Friday.  Now, check out the surface chart valid at the same time:

At the ground level, the freezing line is farther to the south, roughly along the I-64 corridor.  The low is moving along the TN/AL state line, putting us firmly in the precip. zone.  So again, you'd have precip. falling through a warm airmass and landing upon a below freezing surface.  This is the recipe for an ice storm.  My thoughts on this storm are the same as last week..   the difference being that now we are only 4 days out, rather than 7, so this forecast is slowly gaining more merit.

I urge anyone who plans to be out and about on Friday/Saturday to stay tuned to the weather forecasts.  Once we get this current storm behind us tomorrow, we can start to nail down firm details on how this coming weekend will actually turn out.


-Shawn

Ice Storm

Good afternoon.  Snow showers continue across central Kentucky this afternoon in the wake of a large low pressure system that moved through last night.  Visible satellite imagery as of 13:30 shows that western KY is starting to see the snow end and the clouds breaking up.  The rest of Kentucky east of the Green River Parkway is still socked in with clouds and snow showers and this will likely be the rule today.

Our next weather system comes in the form of an Alberta Clipper that will sweep in from the northwest on Saturday evening.  This system will be a quick hitter and should move out of the area by noon on Sunday.  In it's wake, another inch of snowfall is possible.  This won't be a deep snow producer either, but it could cause slick roadways.  A few church cancellations are possible Sunday.

Beyond that, we've got a big storm moving in late Monday and it should be a heavy rain producer for us on Tuesday as well.  Everybody looks to get a soaking rain from this. 

Then we turn our eyes to next weekend.  The last two runs of the GFS model have been keying in on a possible over-running situation setting up near Kentucky late next week.  Over-running systems cause warm air to ride up and overtop of cold surface air.  This usually leads to icing problems for us.  Check out today's 12Z GFS charts:

That chart is the 850mb chart, which shows temperatures at about 5,000 ft. above the ground.  Notice that the freezing line runs just south of Indianapolis and then into southern Ohio.  Notice also that precipitation (the green shading) is starting to pic up across all of Kentucky during this time.  NOW..  look at this chart:

That is the 2M chart, which shows temperatures at the surface where we live.  See where the freezing line is setting up on this chart?  Yup.. it's draped right along the I-64 corridor and it bisects the state of Kentucky.

So what you would have in this scenario is precipitation falling through an above-freezing airmass...and then striking a below-freezing surface.  This is a textbook recipe for an ICE STORM that would affect all of Kentucky along and north of I-64.

This is 6 or 7 days out... and the overall pattern will change some between now and then as the details get tweaked.  I am not saying that we are definitely going to see an ice storm here.  I'm simply showing you this to point out that some very interesting weather could be coming down the road.  Get ready.. Winter is just getting started.


-Shawn

Friday morning Kentucky snow update

Well the storm is starting to wind down a little now.  As of 8:00 this morning there are still snow flurries and light showers in the area, and these will persist for much of the morning.  Area roads are heavily salted and are mostly in good shape.  Secondary streets are icy but passable... just take it slow. 

 

Official reports in the LEX area and in surrounding counties are showing from a Trace to 0.8” of total snowfall, with some drifts in the 2-3” range.  The slick conditions are the part to be concerned about, rather than the depth of the snow.  This is pretty much exactly what I was expecting.  Wind chill temperature this morning is 2°F so bundle up warm before you go out!  And as expected, there are many school closings and delays.  Should be a nice 4-day weekend for the kids.  The forecast worked out pretty good.  Now..  if I could just whip up a nice blizzard for us..  ;)

 

Our attention turns now to an Alberta Clipper style system that will drop in from the northwest later this weekend.  This could potentially cause some church cancellations on Sunday morning.  I’ll look at some model data later today and try to pin down what our impacts will be from that.  For now, send the kids out to enjoy this snow!  Mine wants to make snow angels...been waiting for weeks for this opportunity.

 

Take it slow this morning and be safe.

 

-Shawn

14:00 (2PM) Update

The cold front is pushing through central Kentucky right now.  Areas from Cincy to Lexington and down toward Somerset are now seeing winds turn to the northwest, signifying that the cold air is now here.  Look for rain showers to change to snow showers around the LEX area and surrounding counties as we now head into afternoon.  Here is a look at current temps. statewide (it's already into the 20s in western KY!)

Snow moving into Kentucky tonight

Winter Weather Advisory continues for most of Kentucky until 9:00AM Friday.  No changes from earlier thinking.  Snow should move into the area this evening and could be heavy at times.  Winds will be howling and the affect on exposed skin will be high.  Dress very warmly if you must be out and don’t forget about your pets outside, unless you have Siberian Huskies.  Roadways will become slippery in places, so prepare to take your time and be safe.  Looks like the Alberta Clipper system coming in Saturday night might add another inch of snow onto existing snow.  Total accumulation from now until Sunday could be in the 2-4 inch range.

 

-Shawn

 

Snow Update - Jan. 11, 2012

After looking at the latest model data, I do NOT think that travel will be impacted in central KY on Thursday.  I think both the morning and evening rush hour should be in good shape.  Surface temperatures on all the model data stay above that magic 32 degree mark until later Thursday night.  Roads should not be in bad shape until we wake up Friday morning.  If you plan to be out late Thursday night, you'll want to slow down and watch for slick spots.

The snow showers will be heavy at times.  The wind and dropping temps. will make the snow look even worse.  If you will be outside, plan to dress very warmly as wind chill temps. will likely get into the single digits.  I expect there will be some school closings and delays Friday morning across much of the area.

-Shawn

Kentucky Winter Flashback: 1994

In recent years, we've complained about the single digit temperatures that we've seen from time to time during the winter months here in central Kentucky.  So far this season, the 10-15 degree range is about as cold as we've gotten, but even at that you can hear grumblings from folks about how Spring can't show up fast enough.  I thought I'd do a quick little write-up about the January we experienced here 18 years ago just to jog our memories and remind us that it could be worse...a LOT worse.

During the middle of January 1994, a powerful weather system moved into the Ohio Valley.  Kentuckians saw several inches of snow fall on average, with some areas seeing even more than that.  It was a fairly serious snowstorm for us, and it created quite a few headaches, but after blanketing the region in snow the storm wasn't finished yet.  The day after the storm subsided, a severely cold arctic airmass moved in and air temperatures plummeted.  Many cities saw readings dip into the 20 below zero range.  Shelbyville bottomed out at 37 degrees below zero!  This is still the coldest temperature ever recorded in the state of Kentucky.  It is simply astonishing.

The brutal temperatures made an already bad situation even worse.  Power lines started to crack and fail.  Thousands of people lost electricity.  Water lines began to succumb to the cold and there were many ruptures.  It was a disaster for utility companies, and they could not respond to the problem areas easily due to the snow.  One report indicated that nearly 2,000 Kentuckians slept in government shelters.  The governor declared all interstate and parkway roads closed to traffic, except for emergencies.  This also caused the storm to become a disaster in economic terms.  The news media reported on a manager of a local Walgreen's store who slept at the store so that he could be there to open his doors the morning after the storm because he knew his customers would need their prescription medications.  The UK basketball team had their flight cancelled and barely made it to Florida in time to play the Gators on national television that night.  Most people found themselves stranded at home for at least 2 days with no way to get out, and no businesses open even if they could.  The brutal air temperatures combined with the snow was something folks in Alaska were accustomed to seeing, but Kentuckians were completely unprepared for such a severe blast from Winter.  Just walking outside would cause frostbite within minutes unless your skin was totally covered.  It was an event we'd never seen before, and haven't seen since.  As a high school freshman I enjoyed the days out of school though.  It made for a nice little vacation, since I didn't have any responsibility at the time.

To make matters even worse still...just a few weeks later an ice storm pounded Kentucky and shut down many of the same areas.  The next time you walk outside and think "it's cold!" just remember that it can always be a lot worse.  January of 1994 proved that, and will live in infamy.

Folks that have been around Kentucky for a long will can attest to the fact that severe winter weather seems to follow a cycle every other decade.  The 1950s, 70s, and 90s all featured some historic winter storms.  With that in mind, it would seem that we are looking at the possibility of terrible winter weather becoming more common in the next several years.  Will history repeat itself?  I suppose time will tell.


-Shawn

Welcome to 2012

Well we made it through another year, praise the Lord, and we are looking toward a brand new one.  Here's hoping that 2012 treats you well, and will be a good year of improvement for our nation.

I really don't have many changes to make to the Winter forecast I put out back in late November.  Things are still working out pretty well.  I expected it to stay somewhat mild through most of December with little snow (we ended up with only a trace), and then get colder as we got into the Christmas and beyond timeframe.  The cold air showed up about a week later than I expected...but it did show up.  As we head into January now it will finally feel like Winter.  Sub-freezing air will be more common now in the new few weeks and along with that maybe we can finally put some snow on the ground.  Keep your fingers crossed. 

I still think we could see a mild spell in February, and beyond that is anyone's guess.   If I had to take a stab at it though, I would not be surprised to see March turn into a wild month with possible cold snaps and snow.  As you have heard, 2011 finished up as our wettest year EVER recorded!  I recorded over 71 inches of rainfall here in Lawrenceburg, and that data is missing a couple of weeks in August following a lightning strike that took out my weather station.  It was also somewhat mild for most of the year.  I am a firm believer that nature keeps a balance and I just can't imagine that the overall mild pattern will continue for much longer.  At some point we're going to see some cold months to even things out and I think that January is clearly pointing toward more cold than we've seen so far.  March has brought some of our big snowstorms of the past, so we can't call Winter over with if we see some warm days in February as I'm expecting.  Keep that in mind... Winter here isn't gone until April!

In the near term, there is a shot at some flurries or possibly light snow showers mostly along and east of I-75 on Monday and maybe into Tuesday.  No accumulation should occur here, but eastern KY could see an inch or two.  After that we see temps. modify by next weekend and it should be nice here Friday and Saturday.  Another cold snap should move in toward the middle of the month.  I can already see another trough trying to dig in on the upper air charts from the GFS model.  No snow storms are on the radar, but a few chances at light snow will occur in the next 2 weeks.  Winter is being slow to arrive but at least it's getting there.

If the prospects of cold and snow increasing doesn't make you happy...here is something that might; every day from now until June will feature more hours of daylight!  Doesn't that make you happy?

-Shawn