Severe Thunderstorm Watch for central Kentucky

Here is a look at the Severe T-storm Watch, in effect for all of central Kentucky and most of Ohio, until 1:00AM Tuesday.  This doesn't look to  be a major severe weather outbreak, but isolated damage from these storms is likely.

 

Severe Weather in Kentucky Tomorrow Night?

To be honest, I’ve been very surprised at how quiet April has been in Kentucky.  We’ve been largely devoid of severe weather around here lately, and I expected this month to be our biggest storm month of the year.  I’m sure most folks don’t mind, considering how destructive March was.

 

Looks like Wednesday night could get a little interesting around here though.  We have a setup about to take shape that could lead to a textbook MCS (mesoscale convective system) developing that would drop into Kentucky from the northwest.

 

Here are the latest charts off the GFS model:

 

Relative humidity about 5,000 ft. above the ground is predicted to be high Wednesday night.

 

 

Surface winds are forecast to be from the southwest as the system approaches.

 

 

 

At the same time, upper level winds will be strong and from the northwest which will create some shear.

 

 

So it appears that the atmosphere may end up primed for some healthy thunderstorms around here tomorrow night.  MCS activity like this frequently occurs in May-July around here, but can happen other months as well.  Many times it leads to wind damage and possibly hail damage as well.  The Storm Prediction Center currently has all of central Kentucky outlined in a Slight Risk for severe storms tomorrow.  Keep an eye on it!

 

The remainder of the week and into the weekend will be wet with chances for rain daily.  Sorry... I can’t help it.

 

-Shawn

Rain Chances for this Weekend - Central Kentucky

Everyone has heard by now that their outdoor plans for this weekend are doomed.  The weather is going to be nasty.  Well, there are indications that this might not be entirely true.  I’ve been watching the models this week and one thing I’ve seen in the GFS is a trend toward a slightly drier weekend.  That’s not to say it isn’t going to rain, but it looks to me like the weekend as a whole might not be a total washout.

 

The ECMWF model is acting strange (as usual) and hasn’t been very consistent with handling this system.  Each run looks a little different.  The NAM is more consistent and shows more rain for us, especially on Saturday.  But this is a known bias of the model...it tends to overestimate precipitation amounts a lot of the time.  So if we stick to the GFS which has been consistent from run to run this week, this is what we see in today’s mid-day run:

 

 

Notice how central Kentucky is shaded in the lightest green color on the scale.  This is the 24-hour total precipitation chart, valid close to midnight on Sunday.  So, basically this map shows you how much rainfall the model is predicting will fall throughout the entire day on Saturday.  The light green shading represents 0.01 to 0.10” of rainfall.  A tenth of an inch of rainfall in the course of an entire day isn’t much.

 

The point here is that the bluegrass area of Kentucky might not see outdoor plans totally wrecked this weekend.  While clouds and a chance of rain will be with us, there is also a chance that a lot of us will see very little rain.  Right now I would go with a 50% chance of rain in the Lexington area and surrounding counties, but later model runs may trend drier or wetter so we’ll keep watching it.  For the time being, if you have outdoor plans don’t cancel them just yet.

 

 

-Shawn

Red Flag Warning for Kentucky

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Kentucky this afternoon.  A Red Flag Warning means that high winds, low humidity, and dry conditions are creating a very dangerous threat of wild fires.  Use extreme caution if you must do outdoor burning today.

 

 

In addition to this, a Freeze Watch is in effect for tonight.  Temperatures by dawn tomorrow may dip to near the freezing mark, which could potentially damage flowers, trees, and other vegetation that is temperature sensitive.  If you need to cover your plants, be sure to do so tonight.

 

Otherwise, the weather looks absolutely gorgeous the rest of this week with sunshine and temperatures that are perfectly normal for this time of year.  The next threat of thunderstorms comes late this weekend and into the first of next week. 

 

 

-Shawn

Kentucky Easter Forecast

It appears that we are going to be lucky in Kentucky this weekend.  A period of dry and warm weather is going to slide through the Commonwealth over the course of the Easter holiday.  Let’s break it down in detail.

 

The morning of Good Friday will bring northerly winds behind a pesky weather system that is currently affecting our weather daily.  This system looks to finally push off to the east Friday and leave cooler air in its wake.  In fact, the latest run of the GFS model indicates that temperatures early Friday morning may dip to the freezing level.  Gardeners and persons with sensitive vegetation need to watch the weather this weekend closely as frosty morning lows look likely.  Here’s a shot at 8:00 Friday morning:

 

 

Temperatures by Friday afternoon should recover into the upper 50s or near 60.  As high pressure works into Kentucky on Saturday, skies should remain sunny and temperatures should rebound into the middle 60s after another frosty start.

 

On Easter morning, the high pressure will have drifted east into the Appalachian region.  The next weather system will start to move out of the Midwest and toward the Ohio Valley.  I believe that with high pressure to our east, and the front not quite into Kentucky from the west just yet, sunrise services at local churches should be in great shape.  In fact, the sunrise should be visible in the eastern sky and temperatures will likely be in the mid-40s at 7:00 AM.  Easter services look to have a nice weather forecast to look forward to.

 

As the front pushes through Kentucky during the day Sunday, typically we would see showers and storms break out along the front.  But the last few runs of the computer models are indicating that there will not be enough moisture in the air to work with.  It appears that this frontal passage may be mostly a dry one.  I’d say that a 10% chance of a rain shower is a fair forecast on Sunday.  Clouds may thicken up, and winds will shift around to the north, but rainfall should be spotty at best on Sunday.  Temperatures should rise into the 60s during the afternoon.  All in all, not a bad forecast.  Here’s how the latest run of the GFS model sees things at 2:00 PM on Sunday:

 

 

So in summary, dry weather should prevail Friday through Sunday morning, with only a slight chance of a shower on Sunday afternoon.  Temperatures will be cold in the mornings, and seasonable in the afternoons.  Looking down the road it appears that a trough will move into the eastern half of the nation next week.  This may drop our temperatures significantly, and many days next week could see highs only in the 50s.  Enjoy this weekend!

 

-Shawn