Monday, September 24, 2012

Record Cold in Kentucky; What Does This Mean for Winter 2012-2013?

Hello and welcome to winter...er, I mean, fall.  Temperatures over the past 10 days have been more reminiscent of late October than September.  In fact, yesterday we touched 37 degrees in Lawrenceburg.  This morning many of the Kentucky mesonet sites hit the freezing mark.  In many towns this is the coldest start to September 24th we’ve seen in almost 90 years.  And the record setting cold might not be done just yet.

 

Temperatures this week will modify and southerly winds will bring a little more humidity to the air.  It will feel more normal for this time of year. Thunderstorms may also move through KY on just about any day this week as a slow moving front sort of stalls out near the Bluegrass.  The last week of September looks to go out pretty nice overall.  We could still use some rain and we should get at least some rain this week.  Enjoy the warmth, because there are some signs that this week may be the end of warm weather for 2012.

 

Next week, the computer models are indicating that a couple more large troughs could sweep into the eastern U.S. and drop our temperatures once again as we start to get into October.  Areas that didn’t see frost this morning will have another shot at it by the end of next week.  A lot of folks are wondering what this means for winter.  A cold pattern is already setting up here in our part of the world and it’s still September.  Let me preface this by saying that nobody has proven any ability to accurately forecast winter from months away.  It’s just not yet possible to make accurate winter forecasts.  Having said that, early indications are that the eastern half of the U.S. including Kentucky may see a cold and snowy winter coming up.  There are a lot of global indices and patterns showing signs of this.  It is too early to make a winter forecast right now, seeing as how we just began astronomical autumn a few days ago.  Next month I’ll do a more detailed look at what winter 2012-2013 may have in store for us.

 

The official government forecast, just for grins and giggles, calls for mild and dry weather throughout winter (December-February) in Kentucky.  Obviously they are interpreting the signs that are showing up in a totally opposite fashion compared to all the private sector weather forecasting companies.  But here’s a look at what they’re going with:

 

Temperature is above average for winter:

 

 

And precipitation is predicted below average for winter:

 

 

 

Interesting, huh?  Like I said, this is one forecast and there are many signs pointing toward just the opposite.  So let’s give it another month of fall weather and look at the data again and then I’ll put out a winter forecast.  Take care and enjoy the weather this week...it’s going to be nice!

 

 

Shawn

 

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

UK vs. WKU football weather

Good afternoon everybody.  We are enjoying a gorgeous week weather-wise as fall gives us a real taste of what’s to come.  Lawrenceburg bottomed out at 49°F this morning, while the KY Mesonet site in Frankfort hit 47°F!  It was a chilly ride to work with the top down on the Jeep to say the least.  Our afternoons have been seeing 70s and just perfect conditions with low humidity.  What a treat this week is.

 

On Friday, the models have been advertising a cold front sweeping in from the northwest.  Over the last several runs of the GFS model, the trend seems to be that this front should wash out a little bit as it moves into Kentucky.  I am not expecting any severe weather with this, and I also do not expect heavy rain in central KY.  This should be a 12 hour window of clouds and scattered showers and then it’s gone.  Check out the latest GFS model run hot off the press:

 

Friday night:

 

 

 

Saturday morning:

 

 

Saturday night:

 

 

 

As you can see, the GFS model takes the front through Friday night and Saturday morning.  Only 0.1” of rain max is predicted with this frontal passage.  By Saturday afternoon, we’re drying out and by Saturday night we are possibly sunny and cool!  Perfect football weather for the UK vs. WKU game at Commonwealth Stadium.

 

The one, and only one, bad thing about this crisp cool weather and low humidity is that this is when weeds get busy pollinating.  Ragweed pollen, in particular, is running very high this week.  The dry and cool air helps the pollen to distribute easily, and allergy sufferers like myself are miserable during this time of year.  Conditions should improve in the next 3-5 weeks.

 

Take care and enjoy this beautiful weather. And GO TOPS!!!

 

 

-Shawn

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Another round of severe weather for Kentucky?

Update:  10:54 Friday

The latest runs of the models are still remaining consistent with timing on this system.  The Hi-Res NAM model shows no thunderstorms in the Bluegrass during the day today.  It continues to hold off on any rain until after 2:00 Saturday morning.



By this time, darkness has killed a lot of the dynamics with the atmosphere and the line is in a weakening phase.  What I am expecting is a couple of isolated storms here and there in central KY today...but most places will stay dry.  After midnight, a squall line will move into Kentucky from the northwest.  It'll bring some lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rains...but severe weather will be minimal.  Folks closer to the OH River have a slightly better shot at wind damage.  The Lexington area looks to be OK.

Friday night high school football looks to be in good shape.  We need the rain so I'll be happy to see it come while I sleep.

IF things change I'll update later.  

Take care,

Shawn



Previous post:


The models are slowing the approach of the cold front tomorrow.  Here is the latest Hi-Res NAM depiction:


Notice that no thunderstorms affect central Kentucky until after midnight...and in this model depiction not until after 2:00 AM Saturday morning.  By this time, the instability will be decreasing and the severe threat will be subsiding greatly.

The GFS model supports this idea, but does allow for some isolated storms Friday evening before this main show arrives later.  Keep your eyes peeled Friday afternoon and evening just in case.  But for now, it appears that Friday activities during the evening will not be affected by severe weather.

I’ll update again tomorrow morning.


Take care,


Shawn