February to be Colder for Kentucky

January was a somewhat dull month. On this last day of the month, the average temperature at the Lexington official reporting station is 35.6F so far, which is a couple of degrees warmer than where we should be.  Rainfall is 4.39" for the month, which is above average. Snowfall is only 0.5" which is well below average. So it looks like January is going to go down as a mild and wet month.  Really the only serious action we saw weatherwise is what occurred yesterday.

 

Looking toward February, I think we're going to see a big change. The storm system that brought severe weather to the entire region yesterday has ushered in a pattern change that will likely carry us through the next few weeks. You can expect wintry conditions this weekend with blustery winds and occasional snow showers throughout the weekend. This cold air will stick around until probably Wednesday the 6th when another big storm system may try to form in the Plains and start it's trek toward the Ohio Valley. The GFS model shows that a repeat of what we saw yesterday is a possibility, with thunderstorms sweeping through the region on the following weekend, and then cold air returning around the 12th of the month.  Check out the possible huge storm for the weekend after this coming one (the 10^th):

The global teleconnections are all predicted to run slightly positive through these next couple of weeks. El Nino never materialized like we thought it was going to back in the late fall of 2012 and currently those conditions are running in the neutral phase. This all basically means that there are no strong signs for extremes in either direction for our weather in the eastern U.S. As a result, the official government outlooks for February 2013 are calling for average temperatures and average precipitation for us and I tend to agree. It'll be colder than what we saw in January, and we'll have an increased threat for storms and also snowfall throughout February.

In the winter time if you have a month that runs mild like January did, it is not uncommon at all to have the following month balance things out and run cold and more active. It's a good bet that we're about to see that unfold. By my count, the Anderson County schools have only had one snow day this year which is unusual. I think though that business is about to pick up weatherwise as we are now squarely in the middle of winter.

Before I go, I wanted to mention that yesterday's severe weather did spawn tornadoes in Kentucky. The closest one to Lawrenceburg was about 35 miles SSW of town, in Marion County. It is very important to always take tornado watches and severe thunderstorm watches seriously, and have a plan of action ready for your family in case you are placed under a warning. Severe weather DOES strike Kentucky in every month of the year.

-Shawn

 

Severe Weather in Kentucky Wednesday Morning

Update 22:30EST:

SPC is going to issue a new Tornado Watch for portions of central KY soon.  NWS Paducah is now issuing tornado warnings as the line is approaching their warning area.  The line is not losing any strength so far, thanks to a very strong low level jet.  The threat will continue into the wee hours of the morning in central KY.  Keep the NOAA radios on and stay safe!


Update 20:00EST:  

The Storm Prediction Center is considering a new weather watch box for western Kentucky.  This will likely be a Tornado Watch if it is issued.  The low level jet is forecast to increase to at least 70 knots, and this will allow the storms to remain strong as they enter Kentucky, despite the loss of daylight.



Update 11:45EST

The Hi-Res NAM run shows the squall line moving into central Kentucky around 4:00EST Wednesday morning.  Ahead of the main line, cells might form that could cause isolated damage or a brief tornado spin-up.  Take a look at the simulated radar, valid during the wee hours tomorrow morning:

Here is the  brand new tornado outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

The 5% threat area has been shifted east to include more of Kentucky.  Here is the new wind damage outlook:

These higher probability areas have also been shifted east.  It now appears that western Kentucky is firmly in the zone where damage will occur.  They are now in the Moderate Risk zone.  Wind damage and tornado spin-ups inside the squall line are a very good bet for everybody west of I-65.  Take this seriously!  This has the potential to be a very deadly severe weather outbreak.

Across central Kentucky, we are in the Slight Risk zone for severe weather.  Even though our threat level is lower, everyone should still keep a close eye on the weather tonight.  This is particularly true because most people will be asleep when the main squall line moves through the Lexington vicinity.

A NOAA weather radio is a very good investment.  They can be bought for as little as $30 and it very well could save your life.  Make sure you have a plan in place, and your children are aware of what you will do if a tornado warning is issued for your location.

This is the point where we stop forecasting, and start "now-casting".  We'll start watching radar trends and alert people of impending danger.

I will likely not have an update again unless watch boxes are posted for Kentucky, which is a high probability I would say.  Take care and get ready for a lot of wind!

You can follow me @WXinKY on Twitter.  Also, a reminder that I do read comments and try to get them posted when I can.  Thanks for reading.

-Shawn

Previous discussion:

I will have a more in depth look at things this afternoon once I get a chance to go over the 12Z model runs from today.

For the time being, an outbreak of severe weather continues to look like a high probability for tonight and into tomorrow morning.  Everything is coming together just right for wind damage and tornadoes across a large area of the south, possibly including Kentucky.  My fear is that the evening news on Wednesday will be headlined with the aftermath.

I hope that everyone takes this seriously.  More details coming later…

Shawn

Severe Weather Outbreak?

Well, January has been nothing but boring.  At Lexington, the monthly avg. temp. is 34.2F so far, which is above average.  Rain is 3.00" (not counting today) which is just a little above average.  Snow is 0.5" which is well below average.  So it's been really dull around here, weatherwise.

That might finally be about to change.  NOW some of the other local mets. might have something to start harping on.

A storm will develop tomorrow and start it's trek toward the Great Lakes.  As it does so, the initial low should give way to a second low that may develop near the Ozarks of MO.   This low will drag a strong cold front toward Kentucky during the day on Wednesday.  Here is where it gets interesting.  The models are forecasting a 140 knot (!) jet streak to impinge upon western Kentucky during this time.

You've got a good vorticity max. setting up in western KY during this time also:

This front will have some really good forcing behind it in the form of arctic air.  This will drive it hard into a very warm and moist airmass (near record temps. this week) and that will create a squall line.

Check out the simulated radar from the latest NAM model run.  This is what it predicts that the radar will look like early Wednesday:

That's a pretty healthy squall line for January.  And it doesn't take a whole lot of perfect dynamics in January to create a severe weather event.  So to see 70F surface air, a strong jet streak, good vorticity, and strong forcing all come together the way the modeling is showing it this week will get your attention in a hurry.

What is likely to happen is that we'll see widespread high winds and heavy rains.  Some damage reports are likely.  There is also a chance that with these dynamics in place, isolated tornadoes will also occur, especially across western Kentucky.  I think that everyone needs to keep a close eye on the weather in Kentucky and points south this week.  We could end up with quite a nasty outbreak of storms through Wednesday.

Behind this front, as I mentioned earlier you've got arctic air spilling into the OH Valley on Thursday.  This will create snow showers off and on for Thursday and into Friday.  If you look upstream toward Montana you can see another wave poised to drop in for the weekend and this could generate more snow squalls in Kentucky for Saturday.  We could end up in a situation where clipper style systems continue to rotate into the OH Valley and supply KY with off and on snow showers throughout the first weekend of February.

So from very abnormally warm air, severe storms, and possible tornadoes....to snow squalls for continuous days...the weather in Kentucky is NOW finally about to get interesting.  Everybody stay safe this week.  I'll try to drop by tomorrow with an update from some of the higher resolution models pertaining to the possible severe weather.


Later,
Shawn

Ice and Sleet = Kentucky Weather Nightmare

Good Friday morning.  It looks like we’re going to have to give the NAM model the cookie this go around.  It accurately predicted that the biggest impact from this storm would be across southern Kentucky. 

 

The radar trends show that the precip. is mostly confined to areas south of the BG Parkway and I-64 in Kentucky.  Counties south of here have reported nightmare travel conditions this morning, with heavy icing and very nasty conditions out there.  This will likely impact areas near Cobin and Richmond later this morning.

 

North of the parkways and I-64, conditions are not too bad this morning.  Just take your time.

 

Later this afternoon, the latest NAM run indicates that the precip. will stop and temperatures will warm to near the freezing mark.  This will allow roadways to be in better condition for the evening commute.  Just be VERY careful in southern Kentucky this morning.

 

Enjoy your weekend.  I probably won’t have another update until late in the weekend.

 

 

 

Shawn

 

Snow to End the Week?

Check out the system quickly approaching from the north tonight:

There really aren’t many changes to talk about with today’s model runs.  You can refer to the post from yesterday to see model images.  The NAM runs from today are slightly stronger with the system tomorrow, but the ECMWF runs are slightly weaker.  GFS is staying rock solid with its forecast. 

So…  this looks to be an all snow event for people along the WK/BG Parkways and I-64 in Kentucky.  You’re looking at a 1-3” snowfall.  This should begin around sunrise and should end during the late afternoon.

South of the parkways/interstate there will be a mix of snow and sleet.  Some freezing rain is possible but I think sleet is more likely.  Roadways may be slick, but this does not look like a significant accumulation of wintry precip. for the folks in the southern counties.  Road crews should be able to handle this system just fine.

What’s going to be interesting is to see how the school districts handle this.  Since the snow is forecast to begin during the post-dawn hours, will they go ahead and cancel school on the assumption that the forecast will pan out?  Or will they go ahead and bring kids to school and see how it shakes out during the day?  I’m interested to see how they handle this.

Beyond this snowy system on Friday, you’re looking at a dry but cold weekend.  Highs should top out in the upper 20s under high pressure with no precip. falling. 

The beginning of next week will usher in warmer conditions, but unsettled weather as another larger system develops to our west.  The parent low may try to streak into the Lakes and drag a cold front toward Kentucky.  Rain, with a few rumbles of thunder, will be possible for Tuesday.

Enjoy your weekend, and keep your fingers crossed for Friday’s system to be an over-achiever. 

-Shawn

The Tale of Two Models

Update:

12Z Euro is in, and it's basically a perfect compromise of the NAM and GFS runs from today.  The precip. field it shows looks just like the GFS (below)...but it's a little weaker in strength similar to the NAM (below).  So all in all, this continues to look like a purely snow event for Lexington and surrounding counties, mostly during the day on Friday.  Total accumulations should be in the 2-4" range.  More updates tomorrow...

Previous discussion:

Here we are 36 hours from showtime, and the NAM and GFS models are still squabbling.  The NAM subdues the system coming in Friday and keeps the associated precip. shield to our south.  This would reduce snowfall in central KY to just flurries.  GFS on the other hand still shows a good connection between the wave drifting in and weak low pressure to our north, and as a result it maintains a healthy precip. field for all of Kentucky.

Here is the NAM from 12Z today:

See how the wave just pushes to our south?  Only the far southeast counties of Kentucky would get in on the action under this scenario.  Now look at GFS:

It's precip. field is much larger.  This would all be snow, as it appears surface temps. will be below freezing for the entire event.

So what does this mean?  Well, I would like to see the ECMWF run before making a concrete call on this.  It'll be viewable in about 2 hours.  For now, I would think that the GFS solution is a little more plausible.  My early call was for 3-5" of snow in the Bluegrass counties.  I think at this point I'd drop down a notch and go for 2-4".  Bottom line is that I still expect some snow, nothing major but at least some snow.   And school cancellations are still a real possibility for Friday.

When the Euro model is out I'll take a peek and post an update later.

P.S. I have comments set up to be moderated.  This is because of a select few who don't have any idea what they are talking about and just like to talk trash and stir the pot.  But if you leave a comment, I will read it and I'll try to post it to the blog.  Don't want anybody to think I'm ignoring you...I'm not.  It's just that I'm a busy guy.

Take care and stop by later this afternoon.  By the way, we are at the end of January and have ZERO snowfall on the board.  We had one light ice event on the 15th.  Yet, some weather guys are STILL beating that "arctic air!" "SNOW!" drum as loud as they can..   it never ends.

-Shawn

First Snow Day of the Season for Many Central Kentucky Schools

Afternoon Update:

Looks like GFS and Euro are starting to fall in agreement with the Friday system.  Both models show a weaker system, but, both models also show temperatures being cold enough to keep this as all snow.  So without further delay, here are the GFS precip. and surface temp. charts for Friday afternoon:

And here are the precip. and surface temp. charts from today's Euro model for the same time on Friday:

See how temperatures stay below freezing here, but the moisture stays mostly shunted to the south of us?  This would drastically reduce accumulations here.  However, this is still a better snow scenario for the winter lovers because you're not dealing with warm ground or a mixed bag of precip.  Instead, you get frozen ground and ALL snow if these model runs verify.  So, it still could make for a sloppy Friday morning around central Kentucky.  And...it still could be the first snow day for many schools around this area.  

I'll keep an eye on things and by tomorrow we'll have this storm nailed down good.

Previous discussion:

Good Tuesday morning.  Hope you had a nice weekend.  I did.  J  I avoided the computer and enjoyed the nice weather.

This week we are getting off to a much colder start.  In Lawrenceburg, we bottomed out around 10 degrees this morning.  Still not what I’d call hard core…but it’s definitely getting colder.  Our attention is now turned to a storm system that the models are hinting at for Friday.  A weak wave will move through our area from west to east starting Friday morning and lasting into the afternoon.  Depending on which model you use, this could be a rain/snow mix, or it could be a healthy pure snowfall for central Kentucky.  The ECMWF is currently showing 6-8” of snow for the Lexington area.

I want to look at the 12Z data from today, and then I’ll post an update with some maps this afternoon.  Bundle up out there!

Shawn

A Quiet Week Ahead

Good evening.  Thought I'd stop by for a quick update since I'll be out of town through the weekend.  We've got a southern branch system firing up tomorrow in Georgia.  Imagine that.  Haha!  The southern branch has been very active this winter.  The models are taking this storm to the east coast, and the precip. shield may extend northward as far as southeastern Kentucky.  So folks in the southeastern counties will likely see a cold rain on Thursday, ending as light snow early Friday morning.  I suspect that a few roads could become slick, but this does not look like a significant storm.

The weekend looks fantastic with high pressure in control.  Sunshine should be the rule, with temperatures running in the 40s for highs areawide.  All in all, about as nice as you can hope for in January.

That brings us to next week.  An "arctic outbreak" has been the forecast on some blogs, and it does look like temperatures are going to take a tumble.  However, I personally would not consider this an arctic outbreak.  The GFS shows this nicely:

The blue line draped across Kentucky is the -10C line.  This is at the surface, not at the 850mb level like the other guys are obsessed with.  So at the peak of this "arctic outbreak", the GFS model shows a temperature of 15F, give or take a few.  We've already been into the teens this season, so it'll be nothing really new.  I will say that the European model is much colder looking and time will tell which model will be correct.  But if history repeats itself, my money is on the GFS.

Something else you can see on this chart, valid Tuesday morning, is the clipper shooting into the northern plains.  This run of the GFS keeps that snow just to our north.  But we will have to watch this closely next week, as a small deviation in the track could bring snow to Kentucky.  It looks like a pretty healthy clipper in the modeling of the past day or so.

Before I go...  here's a little tidbit.  January in central Kentucky has featured single digit temperatures in each of the past several years, EXCEPT for 2012.  So far, 2013 has also not seen any single digit readings.  It appears that we are in a cycle of mild winters at the moment.  This isn't the wild and crazy winter some would make it out to be.  But... I do not expect this to continue throughout this decade.  Our time is coming..one of these years.  The 50s, 70s, and 90s featured some of the worst winter weather in Kentucky hsitory.  The 10s will likely keep the pattern going and bring winter back to us in coming years.  (Then the other guys will really go nuts!  :) )

Have a great weekend and enjoy the nice weather!  Next week will be chilly.

You can follow on twitter @WXinKY

-Shawn

ICE in Kentucky?

Update:

GFS is coming in and it's showing surface temps. about 1 degree warmer than what the NAM shows.  It does show much warmer air aloft than the NAM, however.  It's becoming clear that surface temps. are going to be the name of the game tonight.  IF we can manage to stay below the magic 32 number at ground level, we've got big problems on our hands.  Let's watch closely...

Previous discussion:

Well let’s focus our attention on this weather system coming in tonight.  Oddly, the published forecasts haven’t really been mentioning much going on Wednesday morning.  But the models are indicating that it could be rather interesting.

Here is the brand new 12Z run of the NAM model for today, showing surface temperatures:

And here is the same map with the temperatures a few thousand feet up:

What you notice is that as the slug of moisture from the south is moving northward into Kentucky, temperatures are cooling to around freezing in the western Bluegrass counties.  This is interesting.

But what is even more interesting is that if you look closely, you’ll notice that temperatures aloft are slightly warmer than temperatures at the surface.  This is an example of “over-running” and it’s a setup that can lead to freezing rain.  ICE is a bad word around here, following two devastating ice storms in the past 10 years.

I don’t think at this point that we are looking at a devastating ice storm, but I DO think we are looking at a nasty winter weather event unfolding tonight.  Frankfort and Lawrenceburg are in the zone where it could get nasty.  Lexington may get in on the action also.  It’s the area east of I-65 and west of I-75 that needs to watch this closely.  We could see lots of school closings tomorrow.

I will take a peek at the 12Z GFS and Euro runs and update this afternoon.  For now, prepare for a nasty morning commute tomorrow in the Bluegrass.

-Shawn

Snow in Kentucky and the Southeast Followed by Arctic Outbreak?

I’m seeing a lot of local WX guys using this chart to call for a possible southeast snow even this week:

 

 

This is another maddening thing that they all seem to do.  That is the 850mb chart, which shows temperatures approximately 5,000 ft. above the ground.  Now, if you’re in a helicopter I suppose you would see snow in the southeast according to that chart.  But if you are on the ground, walking or driving your car or sitting in your chair or doing whatever else you do to live on Earth’s surface, do you really care what’s going on 5,000 ft. in the air?

 

Take a look at the surface chart for the exact same time period:

 

 

See where the freezing line is?  It’s all the way north of Kentucky.  Even if the precipitation spread into the Ohio Valley, you still wouldn’t get an accumulating snowfall…MUCH LESS the southeastern states, according to this model run.  It is important as you are reading posts from other meteorologists to make sure you know what you’re looking at.  Most of them use the wrong maps to pick out weather features. 

 

The 850mb charts ARE important when looking for freezing rain areas, etc.  But you can’t use them alone when trying to forecast snow amounts.

 

Now, on to this “arctic outbreak” that is coming.  Yes, it does appear that the time period around the 19^th could usher in some colder air for Kentucky and the Ohio Valley.  But, it does not appear right now that we are talking about below zero kind of arctic air.  So it really won’t be that much different than the teens for lows we’ve already seen.  And…just a few days later the warm air looks to lift back toward Kentucky as shown in today’s GFS runs:

 

 

So there you have it..  once again we see some weather guys trying to make the coming weeks out to be crazy and insane…and in actuality it’s just average run of the mill stuff for January.  This is why you have to be careful about what you read on the Internet.  J  Take care and enjoy your week.  We should see a few peeks of sunshine from time to time.

 

 

Shawn

 

Will this Boring January Weather Turn Around?

Friday afternoon update:

From the NWS Louisville:

Given a period of heavy wet rains Sun into Mon and
no real cold air behind this system, think that sfc temps may hover
around freezing in southern and eastern sections of central KY and
not much freezing of precip on contact will occur.  Therefore, will
include a wintry mix in the forecast Monday night, but there`s a
good chance that precip will end as plain rain.

Tues-Fri look dry as most zonal flow dominates the Midwest for the
rest of the long term period.  A shortwave passing across the
southern states may threaten to bring a small chance of light rain
to south central KY Thurs or Fri, but not confident enough to
include in the forecast at this time.

Temperatures will be mild for one more day on Sunday as most
locations reach the 50s to lower 60s for highs.  We`ll cool off into
the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs for the rest of the work week
with lows in the 20s.

Looks like they are basically seeing the same thing I'm seeing.

Previous update:

Ice storm Tuesday?  Maybe.  But probably not.  It’s starting to look now like the moisture will be gone before the cold air really gets entrenched.  This is the reason I said the other day that I wasn’t going to bite on the solution the models were showing since we were still 4-5 days out, and icing events are super hard to predict.  It takes the perfect over-running scenario to produce an ice storm and that’s just hard to latch onto at such an early interval.

Today’s GFS run shows the freezing line dropping into Kentucky on Tuesday, but the difference is that the low gets ejected out to the east coast in a more progressive flow.  This would drastically reduce the snow/ice threat across Kentucky.

The Euro is coming in now and it also takes us below freezing Tuesday, but it shows the precip. shield being pushed even farther to the east by that time.

So it is looking like we’re going to be dealing with plain rain throughout the weekend.  On Monday, we might be able to squeeze out some mixed precipitation and then by Tuesday the storm is pushing off to the east as the cold air filters in.

The remainder of next week looks mostly dry with average temperatures for this time of year.  The boring January weather looks to continue for at least another week.  We will start looking toward the end of the month now in hope of some changes.  I know a lot of folks would love to see some harsh winter weather move into the Ohio Valley.  The snow lovers are a tough crowd.

Take care and enjoy your day,

Shawn

Tornado Siren Changes for Kentucky

Here is the latest update:

http://centralkyweather.blogspot.com/2013/02/house-bill-93-tornado-siren-regulation.html


Previous discussion:

For years I have been bothered by the lack of consistency in the use of outdoor warning sirens in Kentucky during severe weather.  Some counties only sound the sirens when the NWS issues a warning, while others sound the sirens whenever they want.  This is a big problem.

Joplin, MO was hit by the deadliest tornado ever in 2011.  Following the destruction, a study was done to find out where things went wrong.  One of the findings was that the public was confused by the signals they were getting from the outdoor sirens.  Either not getting a siren at all, or getting a siren, silence, then siren again for the "all clear" is very confusing.

We need to change the law in KY to prevent this.  We need to standardize and regulate the use of the outdoor sirens for consistency.  We need to make the National Weather Service the authority who issues the warnings that trigger the sirens, the same way that it is with every other form of receiving warnings.

I'm taking the lead on this and have helped write legislation that is being presented in the legislative session right now.  The bill is House Bill 93 and you can follow it's progress on the Kentucky Legislative Research Commission website.  If passed, this bill would make it so that no matter where you are in KY, if you hear the sirens sound during severe weather you will know that there IS an active warning and there IS a threat.  No more untrained local officials sounding sirens and "crying wolf".  I truly hope that we can get this bill passed.

Enjoy this warm weather while it lasts.  It'll feel like winter again by the end of the month.

Take care,

Shawn

Kentucky Weather

I have to take a moment to get something off my chest.  I am seeing too many meteorologists playing the business game.  What is the “business game” you ask?  It’s when you use your title to convince people that big storms are coming in order to increase your website traffic, or your TV ratings, or whatever the case may be.  I read from one of them that you should “forecast the pattern”…but the guy who wrote this hasn’t been forecasting the pattern at all because the pattern in January 2013 would suggest that a continuation of mild conditions will continue, and yet every single day to this guy is a new snow storm and arctic outbreak just around the corner.  It’s maddening.

 

“This is a supercharged pattern!”  Or is it?

 

Let me explain what’s really going on.  What’s really going on is that we’re headed into the middle of the month with only 0.19” of precip. on the board.  We’re going into the middle of the month with an average temperature of 33 degrees which is spot-on normal for this time of year.  We’ve put zero snowfall on the ground this month.  We are in a BORING stretch of weather that is being dictated by the PATTERN.  The AO index is running positive, the NAO is running positive, and when that happens you typically don’t see wild swings in the weather and you don’t see big blasts of cold air into the eastern U.S. either.  Any meteorologist worth his salt would have seen this coming at the end of December.  Yet…there are some who continue to beat the drum.  “The cold blast is coming!  The snow is coming!”.  Well, I suppose eventually that will become true.  Someday.  Maybe that’s what they’re hoping for.

 

I will continue to be honest and straightforward like I’ve always been.  I have nothing to lose or gain because I do this on my own dime and I don’t get paid for it.  It’s funny, because the guys doing TV weather still have absolute control over the minds of the masses, even in 2013.  You can show these folks what the pattern really holds for us, but they are hypnotized.  As the old saying goes, “you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink”.  I swear I think some of these guys are car salesmen.  They tell people what they want to hear just to increase business.  Do you want to constantly hear that snow is coming to your yard, even when it’s not?  Do you want a weather guy or girl who constantly gets your hopes up?  Or one who tells you what the data is showing?  It just drives me crazy…because these mets. are the ones who give all of us a bad reputation for being “wrong”.

 

Get ready for a continuation of average temperatures through January, and wet conditions beginning this weekend.  Flooding may be a concern, but snow is not.  We’ve got to get the global patterns to switch around so that we can get some winter weather in here, hopefully in February.  Time will tell.  But don’t listen to the guy who says all heck is about to break loose in Kentucky next week…that wild weather is coming…  he’s just leading you along.

 

 

Have a good day,

 

Shawn