Don't get out the lawn mower just yet!

At the end of January I wrote that I expected February to be colder, relative to average. In these last remaining days of the month we are indeed running below average. The temperatures are not the only thing that's below average this month; rainfall and snowfall are also both below average. Typically, February is the snowiest month in central Kentucky with about 4.5" recorded in this area. We are sitting at around 2.5" as of today, and I don't foresee adding to that total at any point during these last few days of the month. So February is going down as a little cooler than January, but also relatively dry.  Again, not the "supercharged" pattern you've read about elsewhere, is it?

Where is the snow? At this point a lot of folks have given up on winter and are looking forward to spring. But don't get out those lawn mowers just yet. There is a strong signal showing up in the medium range modeling that suggests March will come in like the proverbial lion. After enduring a cold rain/drizzle/snow mix for the remainder of this week, next week looks to come in cold with possible snow showers. By the 6th of March we may see a bigger storm develop and roll into Kentucky. At this point it looks like that one will likely be rain, but that freezing line that always gives our forecasts fits is going to be lingering close by so we'll have to keep a close eye on it. Regardless, something big looks to happen next week between the 6th and 10th of March.

Once that system pulls out, the recent model guidance has shown a huge trough developing in the Rocky Mountains. Should something like this happen, it could spread abnormal cold and snow into the Ohio Valley. Just as we switch to daylight saving time and people begin to get into the spring mood, it is possible that winter's fury could be unleashed upon the nation.  Funny, huh? This wouldn't be the first time, however.  We've seen huge March snowstorms in years past. I'm not saying we are going to get another two foot snowfall like some of those years in the 1990s. All I'm saying is that from my vantage point right now, I will not be surprised at all if the first two weeks of March turn out to be very wintry. You might want to keep the snow shovel handy and leave the mower in the garage just a little while longer.  The first two weeks of March may be very harsh around here...possibly even more wintry than anything we've seen so far this season.

-Shawn

Freezing Rain

Well we’re getting pretty close to showtime now, so I just took a peak at today’s 12Z model runs and it still looks exactly the way it has for days.  The bluegrass counties of Kentucky are going to be dangerously close to seeing an ice storm…but we may just barely escape. 

 

Today’s run of the GFS shows this well.  It looks like there’ll be a window of about 7 hours where the counties along I-64 and north of there will be at or below freezing Thursday night into Friday morning.  During this time, freezing rain may accumulate on elevated surfaces.  After sunrise, the temperature will warm to above freezing area wide and the ice will start to melt away and we’ll just see plain rain.  But from around midnight through 6:00AM Friday don’t be surprised to see a glaze of ice outside.

 

As it stands right now, this looks like rain for southern Kentucky and freezing rain for northern KY giving way to plain rain during the day Friday.  The overall impact will not be severe like we’ve seen from ice storms of recent years…but travel could become dangerous so slow down and take your time!

 

School closings are going to be a tough call in many counties.  This will be another situation where it’ll be interesting to see what they decide to do.

 

 

Shawn

 

Ice Storm?

Last week I mentioned a couple of systems that would move through this week, and we talked about how the Thursday system would be the interesting one.  Well, the GFS runs of the past two days have made that system look even more interesting.

Precip. is predicted to move in Thursday night and linger into Friday morning.  But what’s interesting is the temperature profile being shown for this system.  Check out where the freezing line sets up at the surface:

It looks like that along and north of I-64 in Kentucky we’ll see the mercury fall to or below freezing as this precip. in moving into the state.  So it’s going to snow, right?  Well, not really.  Look at the 850mb chart (approx. 5,000 ft. in the air) for the same time:

Now the freezing line is well to the north.  So you’ve got warmer air aloft keeping everything as plain rain…but it’s falling onto a surface that’s at or below freezing.  You know what that means, right?  I C E.

IF these GFS runs work out to be correct, the northern half of Kentucky could see a pretty serious ice event Thursday night and into Friday morning that would drastically impact travel.  We’re a few days out so we’ll just watch the model trends and see if this scenario keeps showing up in the modeling.

I will say that last week the local NWS office had to do a 180 flop with their forecast because they had been ignoring the GFS model which was the only one predicting the system that affected us mid-week.  When will people learn that you never completely count out the good ol’ GFS model?  Time will tell for this week…but it just might get interesting.

Shawn

Headed Toward the Latter Part of Winter

Well, the new Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlooks won’t be released until next Thursday.  It’s going to be interesting to see what those look like.  The forecasts they issued late in 2012 for the upcoming winter of 12-13 had been way off.  But the new outlooks they put out in January started to show that they were taking into account what was really happening.  We shall see…

 

For now, it appears that if you wanted to make a prediction for the next 2-4 weeks worth of weather in Kentucky, it would be summarized this way:  wild and wet.

 

The AO index is running negative and is forecast to continue slightly negative through the remainder of February.  The NAO index also is slightly negative.  The PNA index is forecast slightly positive in coming days.  If you put all this together, it looks like a really good recipe for eastern U.S. storms, at least on paper.

 

We did just have a historic Nor’easter bomb New England.  And the GFS model forecasts a couple more storms to come through the Ohio Valley next week.  The first one may move into Kentucky on Tuesday morning.  It appears at this point that a lack of instability will preclude any tornadoes or wind damage.  We’re probably looking at heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder.

 

 

 

After that system passes, we’ll see cooler but not cold air filter in behind it.  On Thursday, warmer air will start to push in from the south once again, and another storm system will develop in the Midwest and push toward the Ohio Valley.  There is a lot of uncertainty about where that system will go.  If it track south, it will be more of a rain/snow mix for Kentucky.  But as it’s predicted right now, it would move north of Kentucky and spread rain and thunderstorms into our area.  Take a look:

 

 

That system has a more dynamic look to it at this point, as it will be fed by a 140 knot upper level jet.  Right now it doesn’t look like this will be a severe weather outbreak…BUT…that possibility cannot be ruled out.  We will have to watch that system as it unfolds.  This, if it occurs as shown, would affect Kentucky around Friday of next week.  Look at the strong jet bearing down upon the lower OH valley:

 

 

There is at least some indication that yet another storm may move in around the 25^th of the month.  But now we’re starting to get too far out to reliably predict.

 

The bottom line is this…we have a lot of rain headed this way, and a lot of snow for the Great Lakes and Northeast.  The pattern is locked and loaded and in coming weeks it won’t be boring.  Snowfall is still below average here in Kentucky and I don’t see any big snowstorm chances coming up.  But we’ve still got 4-6 weeks to go where a big storm is possible.

 

It won’t be long until we’re talking about severe weather season.  And if this current pattern holds, March and April could be a very dangerous time again this year…very similar to the outbreaks we saw last year.

 

Enjoy the weekend,

 

Shawn

 

February May Go Out Like a Lion

It’s been pretty busy for me lately, but I plan to post an update about next week’s weather by this weekend.  It appears that the pattern is going to be conducive for a few huge storms to develop in the central U.S. next week.  These storms will likely bring heavy precipitation to the eastern part of the nation.  A lot of snow and a lot of rain may take us into the end of February.

 

After I get a look at some medium range model data and the latest global index forecasts I’ll try to do a post on how this may affect Kentucky.

 

Yesterday went as expected.  Some flakes in the air, but way too warm for any accumulation.

 

Enjoy Valentine’s Day.  The weather is fantastic outside for this time of year.

 

 

 

 

Shawn

 

Next Shot at Snow in Kentucky?

The weather this week looks pretty awesome, by February standards.  Sunshine and highs just above average will be the rule.  Wednesday is the lone exception, which should feature some rain for the entire Commonwealth.

 

Our next shot at any snow will come on Saturday as a weak wave in the flow moves across the deep south and spreads moisture into Kentucky, while some more winter-like air filters in at the same time:

 

 

 

This particular wave has looked a little stronger on previous runs but today’s 12Z run weakens it more.  In any case, it would appear that a light snowfall on the order of 1-3” would be a good bet for Kentucky this Saturday.

 

Interestingly, after this wave passes us, it is progged to turn into another nor’easter and ride up the coast, while growing in strength.  This could result in yet another all out blizzard for New England.  Folks in Connecticut and Mass. are going to just be getting dug out from this weekend’s storm when another one strikes!  What a rough 12 months those people have had….

 

Looking down the road, the second half of February for Kentucky looks to be average as far as temperatures go, and above average for precip.  It appears to me that we’re going to stay locked into an active pattern with persistent storms passing through.  The temperatures we see will obviously dictate whether we get a lot of snow, or a lot of rain…but at this point I am expecting more rain than snow as the southern branch remains active and may even lift slightly northward with an increasing sun angle now taking effect.

 

The great news is that we are 4 weeks away from Daylight Saving Time!  And to me…that is the official start to Spring.

 

Take care,

 

 

Shawn

 

Valentine's Day Storm?

Last week I mentioned that we could possibly see a huge storm around the 10th, and it still looks like that is on the table.  Fortunately it doesn't look like the dynamics will be in place for a severe weather outbreak this time around.  The copious amounts of rain forecast to be ongoing across the gulf coast will likely limit destabilization here in KY, and so we will likely see heavy rains with a few rumbles of thunder...but no tornadoes this time around in our state.

What's really interesting is Valentine's Day.  For a while now, the GFS model has been showing a storm developing in Texas and then scooting across the deep south before making a run up the Appalachian mountain chain.  This would bring snow to the Ohio Valley around Valentine's Day.  Today's run takes the low on a more westerly track.  Take a look:

Under this scenario, a heavy snow axis would lie from Missouri through central Illinois and Indiana and into northern Ohio.  Having said that, this run does some funky stuff with the path of the low.  Between 162 and 165 hours (Wednesday morning) it suddenly shifts the center of the low 150 miles to the north.  Strange.  We are still 8 days out, so placement issues are to be expected.  The idea right now is not to make forecasts based upon these GFS runs, but to use them as a general idea of what to expect next week.

The bottom line is this:  There is growing potential for a major winter storm to strike the Ohio Valley on Valentine's Day.  The track this storm ends up taking will make all the difference in who gets buried under a foot of snow, and who gets just rain.  But we'll keep a close eye on model trends in coming days.

The latter half of February is still looking cold as I mentioned a few days ago. Winter is just now getting started.  Enjoy this coming weekend...it may be the last NICE weekend we see until Spring.


-Shawn

House Bill 93 - Tornado Siren Regulation in Kentucky

It appears that my outdoor warning siren legislation is starting to get some more attention from the media as well as local EM directors and local governments now, as it is hopefully going to get consideration in the next week or two of the legislative session.

 

I thought I’d take a moment to address some concerns about this bill.  As I expected, a lot of people in charge of outdoor warning sirens are worried about the changes this bill would create, should it become law.

 

First of all, this bill does not add large monetary expenses to the budgets of local governments.  The only hardware requirement mentioned in the bill is some way for the local governments to receive weather warnings directly from the NWS.  This can be done for as little as $30 with a NOAA weather radio purchased from Kroger, Walmart, Radio Shack, or any number of other outlets.  Every household in the state should already have one of these anyhow, and every dispatch center probably already does.  There is no expensive burden placed upon the local governments to meet this provision of the bill.  The other aspect of the bill is training people.  We’re not talking about a week of classes here.  We’re talking about making sure that the person in charge of pushing the button and turning on the sirens knows the difference between a watch and a warning.   This is simple to teach people and working together with state EM and the NWS we can get this done for very low cost to the budgets of local governments.  Again, this is not going to be a huge burden on cities or counties.  This is something that should have already been done anyhow.

 

Second, the reason for the continuous tone requirement is that it is much more logical to the general public and it reduces confusion.  In 2011, Joplin, MO was devastated by a large tornado.  Over 120 people lost their lives.  A study was done afterward to explore where things could have been improved to save more lives.  One of the key things they discovered is that citizens reported being confused by the signals they were getting from the sirens.  The method of sounding the sirens, stopping them, then sounding them again for the “all clear” is EXTREMELY confusing and common folks don’t know whether all the tones they hear mean the danger is ongoing or over with.  It is much more logical to turn the sirens on…and leave them on.  When the NWS cancels the warning, then the sirens stop.  Hear a siren = there is a threat.  Don’t hear the siren = threat is over.  Much better way to do it.  Makes more sense.  I have no idea why it isn’t already done this way in Kentucky.

 

Third, I’ve heard that some EM directors don’t like the sirens and say they are antiquated and are beyond their era of usefulness.  This couldn’t be farther from the truth.  Even in 2013, we’ve got people outside at sports events, county fairs, truck pulls, little league baseball games, farming, working construction jobs, mowing the yard, fishing, boating, hiking, hunting, etc. etc.  LOTS of reasons why people still spend time outdoors in the beautiful state of Kentucky.  These people NEED a reliable form of weather warning when they are outdoors.  Not everybody has a smartphone in their pockets with a weather app. loaded.  The sirens are critical for the safety of these people.

 

There are other states that already have this legislation on the books.  KY is lagging behind.  We need to protect our citizens from severe weather by passing House Bill 93.  It will standardize the use of the sirens.  It will reduce false alarms.  It will give more credibility to the warnings people receive.  It will put the sirens on the same level of warning as radio, TV, smartphone, and internet warnings by making the NWS the sole authority to emit the warning to the people.

 

I realize that not every county and not every city is covered by sirens.  That’s fine for now.  We can work toward fixing that as the years go by.  The ONLY thing this bill does is regulate the use of existing sirens.  This does not force any local government to go out and purchase sirens immediately.  But we’ve got to start somewhere.

 

I know personally of at least two instances in Franklin County in 2012 where the sirens were sounded and no warnings were in effect for the county.  The NWS didn’t even know why the sirens should be sounding.  So thousands of people were wondering what’s going on and there was no threat.  THIS MUST STOP.  We don’t want to contribute to people ignoring weather warnings…we want to give people a reason to take them seriously.

 

If you have any questions about HB 93, shoot me an e-mail at storm_spotter@hotmail.com.  Spring is around the corner…please call your Representative and tell them you support HB 93.

 

 

 

Shawn