April Will Be Warmer

Relentless. That's the best word to use to describe winter this year. It was relatively mild during the heart of winter, when it's supposed to be fierce. Now it's cold, and in a big way, when it's supposed to be transitioning to spring. We are currently running between five and eight degrees below average for the month temperature-wise, depending on which local official reporting station you use. That's significant. Back in February when I forecasted March to come in cold and brutal I honestly didn't expect it to last the entire month, but obviously it has. I know a family that runs a huge nursery operation and they sell flowers and plants to chain stores such as Lowe's.  I was talking to one of them on Sunday and he said the weather this year is killing them.

 

What about April? We're about to turn that corner this weekend and everybody is hoping that this cold is going to finally go away as the calendar changes. The good news is yes I think we're looking at warmer weather in April. The bad news is we will likely see a massive increase in thunderstorm activity to go along with it. It appears that the first two weeks of April will see the jet finally advance northward, allowing normal temperatures for spring to move into Kentucky.

 

The Arctic Oscillation that you've heard me speak of went strongly negative in March. Actually, it was the lowest I have ever seen it on the index last weekend. When you get a strongly negative AO and a negative NAO also, you usually see a huge trough in the eastern U.S. and that's exactly what we've seen. Cold air funneling into the Ohio Valley from Canada ... for weeks on end. The computer models are predicting that the AO and NAO will both start to move toward the neutral point on the scale going into April. Also, it appears that the blocking in place in eastern Canada will finally break up. This should allow the mean jet flow to finally retreat northward and the overall weather pattern will change. That means that normal temperatures for this time of year will finally been seen here in Kentucky. I look for April to return to 50s and 60s for high temperatures on most days. The winter coats may still get used early in the morning, where temperatures around freezing are still going to linger, but at least we're going to be headed in the right direction.

 

The bad news is that we've had a LOT of precipitation in recent weeks and the ground water levels are high. So there is a lot of available moisture to build clouds which in turn build storms. Also, the storm track across the south looks to continue.  I think we are in for an active period of thunderstorms in April. There will likely be a lot of damage both here and across the southern U.S. as a whole from this activity. Flooding issues may also arise due to the already high ground water levels. It's going to be a wild April in this part of the nation. I, for one, will just be happy to see T-shirt weather finally make it here.

 

 

Shawn

 

Where is Spring?

The calendar says it is now the Vernal Equinox…the first day of Spring.  (Apparently, kids these days are being taught that you do not capitalize the names of the seasons, but I was taught otherwise so I will continue to do it the proper way J ).  Somebody forgot to send that memo to Mother Nature, however, because normal weather for this time of the year is nowhere to be found.  We should be topping out around 60 in the afternoons by now.

 

My forecast for March has worked out even better than I expected.  The month came in like the proverbial lion, but it appears that it will try to go out like one also.  A pattern has established itself that keeps blocking in place in the northeast and/or eastern Canada.  And what that means for Kentucky is a persistent west to northwesterly flow diving into the region.  As a result, we’re locked into a cold and wet pattern here.

 

Unfortunately, it appears that this pattern will not let up anytime soon.  The large gyre in the northeast is predicted to maintain position and keep Winter intact across the Ohio Valley.  This may actually persist through the remainder of the month and into April.  Brrr…

 

I know a lot of people, myself included, are now sick of the cold and are ready for warmer weather.  Looks like we’re going to have to wait.  In addition, repeated weather systems will dive in on this jet stream and will keep the weather in Kentucky very unsettled for at least the next 10 days, if not beyond.  Look for rain and a little bit of snow to be frequent around here in the coming weeks.  This is terrible news for folks with agricultural interests.

 

I’ll try to do an update at the end of this month with a forecast for April.  Let’s hope that it improves!

 

 

 

Shawn

 

SNOW!

Update:

Here is a look at the latest HPC snowfall map.  Notice that Lexington, Frankfort, Lawrenceburg, etc. are all in the 20-30% probability zone for at least 4" of snow.  That's not too shabby.

I looked over NAM and GFS runs from lunchtime today and I think a good 2-4" swipe of snow will occur along and north of I-64.  I think folks south of I-64 will still get some accumulation, however.  School closings areawide are a  good bet for tomorrow morning.

Previous discussion:

Tomorrow is getting more interesting.  The modeling is still showing the same idea that it’s shown for days…a low will move directly over Kentucky today and bring rain to the area.  But the part that’s getting interesting is what happens on the backside of this low.  It appears now that a secondary area of weak low pressure will develop in southern Ohio on the backside of the main low, and with energy being transferred to this secondary low while the cold air advection is kicking in at its strongest, that will likely set the stage for snowfall to break out across the Bluegrass of Kentucky on Wednesday morning.  Some of the snow squalls could be quite strong.  Check out the latest depiction from the Hi-Res NAM model:

You’ll notice the low pressure forming near Maysville, KY and the snow bands strengthening behind it.  Wow.  If this scenario plays out, many areas could see the best snowfall of the season.  That would make back to back years where our best snowfall of winter occurred in the first week of March!

Looking down the road, I do not think winter is over with yet.  The signs I talked about in my March outlook are still showing…and a digging trough may still try to keep the cold air and possibly snow cranking into the middle of March, if not beyond.  I’d still say it’s going to be a while before we need the lawn mowers.

I have some friends in the flower growing business, and the outlook for March is not favorable for them at all.  Here’s hoping that we can see some good warmth toward the end of the month.

Shawn