Kentucky Drought in Summer 2013?

The thing that has stood out to me so far in 2013 is the amazing consistency of the overall weather pattern we’ve been locked into here in the Ohio Valley.  Typically, the weather varies greatly from month to month and from season to season here in Kentucky.  What we’ve seen since January has been quite the opposite.

 

Temperature is one part of the equation but precipitation is arguably the most important statistic for most people.  Whether you have agricultural interests, or sporting interests, or are an outdoor event planner, the precipitation stats are what you are really after.  Check out where we are so far in 2013:

 

 

The average precipitation stats come from Lexington, KY because that is the nearest official reporting station for National Weather Service records and the received precipitation stats come from my weather station in Lawrenceburg, KY.  However, only about 17 miles separates the two sites as the crow flies so bear with me for the sake of conversation here.  Look at the amazing consistency we have seen.  January, March, and April were all roughly one and a quarter inches above average.  February was the only month with below average precipitation so far this year.  May still has a week to go with plenty of rain in the forecast so it’s reasonable to assume that we’ll finish the month near or above average again.

 

With almost five months in the books for 2013 and this wet pattern being so persistent, the reasonable forecast for summer would be to predict a continuation of wet weather unless some data strongly suggests otherwise.  Farmers will be happy to know that at this point in time that’s not the case.  It does not look like a drought will set up this summer.  The first half of June, which had been looking to come in hot and dry, is now beginning to look cooler and possibly wetter as the computer models are starting to get a hold on how things will evolve.  The official forecast for the critical growing months of July, August, and September calls for “equal chances”.  In short, this means that the forecasters cannot see any reason why drought would set up in this area, nor do they see any data suggesting abnormally wet conditions.  Basically, one can look at it as if average weather for the time of year can be expected.  Take a look:

 

 

In the past several years we’ve seen a lot of hot summers and dry conditions.  It makes sense that we’re due for a wetter and cooler summer overall and the data is supporting that idea right now.  That’s not to say that we’re going to have another 2004 in which we never touched 90 degrees all year long.  But I just don’t see the oppressive and consistent heat setting in this year.  I also don’t think we will go into a serious drought this year.  If we continue on our current weather pattern it would make for a pretty awesome growing season for those with agricultural interests.  That is, if the rain doesn’t come in the form of severe weather.

 

Enjoy your Memorial Day weekend.  The weather looks fantastic!

 

 

-Shawn

Severe Weather Odds for Central Kentucky

Update (14:08EDT 22-May-2013):

While SPC does still have most of KY in the Slight Risk zone for severe weather this afternoon, I don't feel that coverage is going to be anything like what we saw yesterday.  Southern and eastern KY got hit hard yesterday. Today the airmass simply is not as unstable.  Also, we are blanketed by a lot more cloudcover.  I don't see storms blowing up across the state today.  There may be a few isolated storms or rain showers, but that's about it for the next several hours at least.  

For this afternoon, most of the severe weather will likely be confined to areas north and east of Kentucky....from Indiana into New York.

The front will pass through on Thursday and Kentucky might possibly see more storms again with that passage.  I'll keep an eye on it.

-Shawn



Update (22:27EDT 21-May-2013):

Round two is about to push into central Kentucky over the next couple of hours.  This batch looked very healthy in western Kentucky but it is now weakening due to loss of solar energy and because the atmosphere here is still recovering from the first wave.  So I don't expect any severe weather overnight in central Kentucky.  Just garden variety thundershowers.

A low level jet is anticipated to ramp up during the morning hours and we could potentially see round three of thunderstorms moving into the area early Wednesday.  My opinion is that this is very questionable right now, but the modeling isn't helping much at this point so it should be mentioned at least as a possibility.  Wednesday afternoon if we see more sunshine we could have another more severe round of storms blow up.  We will watch that closely tomorrow.

For tonight, I think most of us can sleep easy but keep those NOAA radios on alert mode at all times to be safe.


-Shawn



Update (12:33EDT 21-May-2013):

I looked over the 12Z model data.  Hi-Res NAM model looks a little less likely to me with only isolated supercell storms blowing up in this highly unstable airmass this afternoon.  Taken verbatim, it shows one massive storm near Frankfort, KY and another near Campbellsville, KY this afternoon...then grows these two isolated supercells into a larger MCS this evening.  What I think is more likely is the scenario offered by the WRF model out of St. Louis NWS office.  Here is a look at it:

The reason I like this solution a little better is because we currently have a cluster of storms trying to get going in western Kentucky and the outflow boundaries left behind from earlier dying convection this morning would seem to be a great way for the current storms to go upscale and create explosive convective development in the Bowling Green, KY area this afternoon.

So let me be clear that the forecast for today is very challenging.  There are so many cards on the table.  But..if I had to make a forecast I would say that with clearing skies now in the Bluegrass part of the state, instability is going to be insane and with a cluster of storms trying to get going now in the western part of the state we may just have the trigger we need to cause storms to rupture this afternoon.  I think that south-central KY stands the best chance of seeing storms today.  The Bluegrass will likely get some activity...but I think it'll be later in the day.  Soundings are showing huge CAPE numbers, the lifted index numbers are very low (around -10!) and we have a lot of moisture to feed on.  It's just a matter of a trigger and I think that trigger currently lies in west KY.

Keep in mind that while we do not have the tornado threat that Oklahoma had yesterday, we still could see damaging hail and winds from any storms that manage to blow up.  Fortunately, the wind fields look less than favorable today for us to see tornadoes.  So that isn't a huge threat.  But excessive rain will cause possible flash floods under these storms and flash flooding is the #1 killer of weather.  Did you know that?  Also, the lightning should be intense with these storms and you also have the hail and wind threat.

I think SPC should extend the Slight Risk zone farther east to include the Lexington and Somerset areas.  They will be updating within the next hour and we'll see if they choose to do that or not.

Unfortunately for Moore, OK...they are seeing more severe weather again today.  Poor folks...

-Shawn

When the 12Z data finishes coming in over the next 2 hours I will take a good look at it and post my thoughts on how this evening will unfold for Kentucky.  We’ve all seen the destruction left behind in Oklahoma.  I was there in 1999 to see that damage first hand.  I went down to the Storm Prediction Center office, and the word floating around unofficially was that if there was such thing as F-6 on the scale, that tornado would have been F-6.  Well, this 2013 May event in Moore, OK hit pretty much the same area and from the pictures I have seen it was equally as bad as 1999.  Please keep those folks in your prayers.

An update for Kentucky is coming soon…stay tuned.

-Shawn

Kentucky Derby Looks Wet

It looks like the weather for KY Oaks will be nice.  There is a small chance of a shower or two, but I think that the day will mostly be dry in Louisville, as well as in all areas of Kentucky along and east of I-65.

The computer modeling is pretty locked onto the idea of swinging the axis of rain eastward into the state on Saturday, however.  It looks like the entire swath of rain and embedded lightning strikes here and there will spin around the gyre and so the Louisville area will see a good soaking leading up to, and during, the KY Derby this year.  If you are a gambler, it's time to put your money on the horse that's a good "mudder".

Here's the depiction from the latest Hi-Resolution NAM model.  Notice the axis of rain directly over central Kentucky:

-Shawn