Kentucky Speedway Weather Forecast for NASCAR Weekend

Update (13:06EDT 26-June-2013):

It is gametime.  It now appears that central KY is the prime spot for severe weather across the nation today.  Lexington, KY is the center of the tornado threat zone (5%).  Widespread severe weather and high wind will be possible across southern IN, most of KY, and parts of TN before nightfall.  Be prepared for flash flooding, dangerous lightning, and large hail also.  It's about to get ugly.

Update (14:01EDT 25-June-2013):

The Storm Prediction Center has just upgraded most of Kentucky to it's 30% probability range for tomorrow.  The ingredients are starting to come together nicely for a severe weather outbreak Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning.  Tornadoes will be possible, but large hail and high wind will be more likely.  This activity may affect all areas in and around Kentucky Speedway.  People camping should stay alert and keep the NOAA weather radios nearby at all times Wednesday and Thursday.

Previous discussion:

Race fans showing up at Kentucky Speedway on Thursday will likely need to bring the ponchos and umbrellas.  It appears that a weather system will drop in from the north and bring a good chance for thunderstorms to the region.  Some of the rain could be heavy.  While every place won’t see rain all day, I would prepare for a wet Thursday.

The rest of the NASCAR weekend looks better with smaller chances for storms, but still a chance for storms nonetheless.  Outside of thunderstorms temperatures will be very warm with highs close to 90.  If we see sunshine most of the day, the green flag weather will be uncomfortably hot Saturday.  Hopefully there’ll be a mix of clouds to keep the heat down this weekend.

Overall it looks like about a  70%  shot at rain on Thursday, and then more of a 30% shot of rain Friday and Saturday.  We could see another MCS drop in late Saturday night or Sunday morning with a re-enforcing blow of thunderstorms.

Stay safe and enjoy the weekend.  I’ll be watching from the couch this year.

-Shawn

Derecho?

A “derecho” is a large meso-scale convective weather system that usually takes on the shape of a boomerang and can be hundreds of miles wide.  They will typically advance at high speed for hundreds of miles across many states spreading very high wind out ahead of the edge of the line.  The Ohio Valley commonly sees these in the summer months, with lots of wind damage as a result.

 

The computer modeling has been hinting for days now that a storm of this type will form near Iowa and then head southeast into the middle and/or upper Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  The first concern is: will this storm actually form as predicted?  There are a couple of points that might prevent this.  Dewpoints are only mildly high with readings in the upper 60s and low 70s and these may fall slightly as we head into this afternoon.  Secondly, upper flow is not particularly strong in this area.  So we’ll have to wait until afternoon and see if this derecho actually does form.  If it does, the second concern obviously will be its path.  What path will it take?

 

Currently, the Storm Prediction Center is thinking that the storm will move largely eastward, and will affect Indiana and into Ohio and then West Virginia.  There is an outside chance that it could track slightly farther southward which would pull northern Kentucky into the mix as well.  Here is the current outlook from SPC for the possibility of wind damage tonight:

 

 

None of the high resolution models are currently showing the derecho affecting Kentucky.  What they do show is a line of storms connected to the derecho back-building down the Ohio River.  This line of storms would then sweep across Kentucky late tonight and would pose a lesser, but still possibly severe, threat to central Kentucky.  The NAM-WRF model shows this well:

 

 

Everyone along and north of I-64 needs to pay special attention to the weather conditions tonight.  This has the potential to be a very damaging event for a great number of people.  NOAA weather radio is the best way to receive warnings and watches.  If you use a smartphone, I have found Weatherbug to be the best app.  The NWS websites are also the best places for weather forecasts and info.  http://www.weather.gov/louisville

 

 

-Shawn