Looking for that first snow day in central KY

Update: Friday 14-November-2014

The storm coming up for Monday morning still looks very similar in the model data to the last several days of runs.  Today's GFS run continues to hammer central Kentucky with several hours of snowfall early Monday.  Take a look:

The change in the forecast is that the northern stream system that looked to maybe bring some snow Saturday is now being forecast to stay mostly north of Kentucky.  So, aside from some flurries I don't expect any accumulation on Saturday at this point.  The southern branch system is still on track for a Monday arrival and the models are still hinting at a deformation band of snow to set up just south of the Ohio River.  The Lexington area could see a few inches of accumulation from this if the surface temperatures are near the freezing mark Monday morning.  The higher elevations of eastern Kentucky could also see a nice snowfall.

I expect that headlines will be coming this weekend and we might see the first Advisory or Watch of the season issued by the fine folks at the National Weather Service as early as tomorrow.  A day out of school is a real possibility for many on Monday.

This will be my final blog update.  You can catch me on Facebook or Twitter @WXinKY for daily updates.  Have a great weekend.

-Shawn

Previous discussion:

Good Wednesday morning.  Hope you all enjoyed Veterans Day.  The weather this week has been delightful in the Bluegrass but that is changing today as temperatures have fallen significantly behind a frontal passage late last night. We are now going into a period of more winter-like weather that will carry us through the weekend.

The big question on the minds of kids and teachers alike right now is:  when will there be a snow day?!

Well, it is impossible to say.  But...Monday November 17th is trying to emerge as a possible winner for that "first snow day" award.

I've been tracking this storm for a few days and haven't really said a whole lot about it because, to be honest, the models have struggled lately.  But we are in that 3-4 day window now where it's time to start looking at this more in depth.  The GFS and ECMWF models are starting to agree just a tad on how this is going to play out.  I hope that with the 12:00UTC runs today they will agree even more on a solution.

The idea here is that on Saturday we could have a system streaking in from the northwest.  This will bring snow to the air but probably will not accumulate much in our neck of the woods.  As that's happening, a separate system will organize to our south and lift northward.  This system will strike on Sunday night.  Southern stream systems are really hard to forecast and the computer models do not have a lot of success with them.  But, IF this system organizes as it's show right now and IF there is enough cold air at the surface we will get a snow day for many counties on Monday.  Keep in mind that there are a lot of ifs in that equation.

The ECMWF model shows the freezing line hanging out directly over us...which is usually the case for Kentucky and that's why it's so hard to predict snow around here.   Geographically, we're just always on the fence.  I will keep watching of course.  And I'll leave you with the current ECMWF run valid Monday early morning:

Temps:

Precip:

There is a chance!


-Shawn

Halloween Forecast for Central Kentucky

UPDATE 30-October-2014:

We've been tracking a storm system for over a week now that threatens to bring the first blast of winter to central Kentucky this weekend.  It appears that things are coming together just as predicted.  A major blast of cold air is coming and temperatures will fall to the 20s by Sunday morning.  Ahead of this, rain will change to snow by Saturday morning and could possibly dust a few cars and trees and Halloween decorations before it's done, especially along and east of I-75.  This will be my final update on this storm.  Get ready because it's about to get COLD!!  I'll leave you with the latest forecast discussion from the fine folks at NWS Louisville:

Latest GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement showing an
deep upper low diving SSE across the eastern OH Valley Friday night.
The GFE 18z ensembles showed the trough aloft being 3 to 4 standard
deviations below normal which is significant. With this system will
come cold air advection and dynamic cooling aloft. The model-
indicated pattern suggests possible development of a winter-like
deformation band within a tight isotach (lines of constant wind
speed) gradient in the left exit region of a 300 mb jet streak
diving south over the lower OH Valley. In these types of patterns, a
definitive mesoscale band of wintry precipitation normally occurs
assuming temperatures within the moist layer and at the surface are
sufficiently cold. In this system, the models suggest all this to
occur, which would suggest a band of snow over the eastern half of
the forecast area, especially east central KY late Friday night.
Model soundings show moisture extending up to between 500 and 600
mb, and cold enough in the moist layer for ice crystal formation
which would stay as mostly snow as it fell to the ground.

If this verifies, then scattered rain showers during the day Friday
likely would diminish or end in the evening, with a band of some
snow developing late at night which would move quickly southeast and
end by Saturday morning with up to an inch or so of snow possible
mainly across the Bluegrass, and especially on grassy areas.

UPDATE 27-October-2014:

The Euro model has sort of taken on the look of the GFS that I posted last week (below).  Imagine that.  Low pressure near the Great Lakes may drive a sort of "back door" cold front through here Friday night and into Saturday morning with much colder air arriving.  Both models take us below freezing Halloween night and into the first morning of November.  The question is, will any precipitation accompany this front?  It's still a little early to tell, but there remains a small chance that we could see a few snowflakes early this coming weekend, especially in eastern Kentucky.  

Here are the temps and precip predicted by the European model.  Notice the freezing line dropping into Kentucky by 8:00PM Halloween and then the precip shield which is depicted as getting really close to the Bluegrass that night.  Interesting...  just something to watch.

As we wait to see how El Nino is going to shape up for winter and what impact it may have on our temperatures and snowfall, we are currently soaking up the final nice days of the year in Kentucky.  Sunshine has returned after a week or two of ICKY weather and by the weekend we’ll see the 70s for highs come back for several days…well into next week.  Ahhh…  enjoy it!!  The leaves are peaking at this time as well, which will make for some absolutely delightful days to finish out October.

Speaking of finishing out October…the last day of the month, Halloween, falls on a Friday this year and that means big plans for trick-or-treat and parties/social events/etc.  What’s the weather going to look like?  Will it look great like a piece of hot pumpkin pie with whipped topping or will it look scary like a headless horseman carrying a bloody sword?

The models are hinting at a cold front that would sweep through mid to late week and that would usher in much colder air for the weekend.  At the same time that is going on, a Nor’easter will move up the east coast.  This *may* throw enough moisture back into parts of KY to interact with the cold air advection sweeping in behind the front and allow a few snowflakes Halloween night.  The weather for that weekend does indeed look active and there will be a LOT of eyes on this forecast in coming days.  We are over a week out and there is lots of uncertainty right now.  I will update later today with the new 12Z data and show you the current thinking on the situation.

Now go outside and enjoy this nice weather!

UPDATE: Here's today's 12Z GFS run.  You can see the low wrapped up in the northeast with strong cold air advection bringing the CHILL into Kentucky Halloween night.  It's conceivable that we *could* possibly see a few flakes.  As always, I'll fine tune this forecast in a few days.

Shawn

Winter 2014-2015 in Kentucky

Update 2-December-2014:

Well it's time to wrap this up.  Meteorological winter began yesterday, and astronomical winter begins in just three weeks.  Here's how I see it.

December: Average snowfall for the Lexington area is 2.5 inches.  I predict that the first ten days of the month will work out to near average before cold air takes us below average quickly.  We should finish the month near average in terms of snowfall.

January: Average snowfall is 3.9 inches.  I am thinking that we will see above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures.  It will turn out to be a frigid and wintry month in central Kentucky.  High utility bills, over-worked heat pumps, and rampant illness spreading due to people being "cooped up" all month will become reality.  People flying south for winter will be thankful.

February: Average snowfall is 4.6 inches.  I believe we'll finish near or slightly below average for snowfall, but temperatures will be wild with some warm spells and some very cold spells.  The threat of an ice storm will be greatest during February.  This could potentially be a utility lines killing ice storm.

March:  Average snowfall is 1.4 inches.  I can see this being a month with a BIG snow storm.  There is a good chance of blowing way beyond the monthly snowfall average with a single storm during the first two weeks of the month.  Temperatures will remain cold during March.  People will be longing for spring...but it will be a long way off.  A few warm spells may come immediately ahead of a severe storm outbreak but as a whole March will be colder than average.

April:  Average snowfall is 0.3 inches.  I think we'll finish near average for snowfall.  We'll see some warm spells but the month as a whole will finish below average for temperature.  There will be some late frost that could damage trees and flowers.  The days will be getting longer but the weather will be slow to catch up.

For my local school district (Anderson County Schools) I predict a total of 16 snow days this season.

That's a quick rundown of how I expect winter 2014-2015 to pan out.  For those hoping for a white Christmas, the good news is that our odds are a little higher than average this year.  The weather models are hinting at much colder weather by the third week of December with the jet stream starting to become active.  Fingers crossed!


-Shawn



Update 24-September-2014:

Just for kicks, let's look at the official government projection for the upcoming winter.  Specifically, the 3-month period running December to February which is meteorological winter.  The Climate Prediction Center issues these seasonal forecasts and updates them generally during the third week of each month.  The brand new outlooks are showing something interesting.  

First of all, they expect temperatures in the Ohio Valley to be average.  There is no signal for warm or cold temperatures, compared to average.  They are calling for normal temperatures for this winter period.

What about precipitation?  I.e., snow chances?  Well, they are predicting the Ohio Valley to be drier than average.  So, less rain and less snow than we'd typically get in a winter.  Take a look:

Now, of course, I do not agree with their assessment.  It's worth noting that I've been watching these outlooks for many years and they rarely have ever panned out to be correct.  But, it IS the official government outlook for the upcoming winter after all, and I thought I'd post it for your viewing pleasure.

I am expecting quite the opposite, with cold temperatures and frequent precipitation, especially for Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and Kentucky.

One of the big keys to the forecast this year will be the ENSO cycle.  The El Nino/Southern Oscillation refers to the temperatures of ocean water out in the pacific and the flows and patterns that govern it.  This is the breeding ground for storm systems that eventually make their way into the United States, and so by watching this area closely we can get a good idea of how our weather here may be affected.

Let's take a look at history:

You can see that last year we were sort of in a neutral phase.  The end of 2012 had a weak El Nino, while the beginning of 2013 went into weak La Nina conditions, and basically the 2013-2014 period was neutral to ever so slightly La Nina.  These neutral conditions meant that the ENSO cycle didn't play much of a part in our weather here, and other variables were allowed to take over.

Here's the current predition for the upcoming months:

On the chart, 0.0 is neutral.  Anything 0.5 or greater is considered El Nino.  Anything -0.5 or less is considered La Nina.  You can see that most computer models are predicting us to see a weak El Nino return this winter, with some models getting toward a moderate El Nino.

If this does occur, it will likely influence our winter weather here in the Ohio Valley and my forecast for a cold, snowy, harsh winter may be a bust.  In my experience, El Nino brings mild winters to Kentucky.  Look at the strong El Nino of the late 1990s on the above chart.  That period of time had 70s around Christmas and nice weather all winter for a couple of winters in a row!

Having said all this, the models have been predicting El Nino to begin all year, and as of late September we are still in neutral conditions.  There are some who believe it'll never pan out...and I'm one of them.  I think we'll stay close to neutral going into winter.  It's something to definitely keep an eye on.

Autumn just began and obviously winter is anyone's guess.  There is very little skill in forecasting months in advance.  For now, I'm relying on history and also current conditions and two week model forecasts and I'm sticking to my guns...  this winter is going to be harsh.

More info coming later...  

Previous discussion below.

-Shawn

Astronomical Autumn begins on Monday, but it’s also time to start thinking about Winter.  After the record setting winter we had last year I started to dig into history and see where it stacked up on the all time list.  And something I noticed was that our ferocious winters typically came in twos or threes in history.  There’s one bit of evidence that points toward another horrendous winter this year. 

Another thing I’ll be doing soon is looking at seasonal models, watching current trends, looking at pattern tendency in the medium range models, and a few other things.  Generally speaking, the eastern half of the nation has been in a trough for a couple of years now.  This has led to two cool summers in a row, and a terrible winter last year as well.  There is no evidence pointing toward this pattern breaking up any time soon.

I’m expecting a cold, snowy, harsh winter again this year.  In the coming weeks I’ll be adding more charts and details as we begin to track the pattern and make a forecast for Winter 2014-2015.  Check back every so often.

-Shawn

Possible Wind Damage Today

A cold front to our NW brought a round of thunderstorms for many in central Kentucky last night.  This was the "appetizer" if you will.  Today, the main course will be served as the front pushes into the state.

The sun is now shining in the Bluegrass of Kentucky as of 9:30EDT and instability is on the way up.  Outflow boundaries from last night's storms have left areas to generate new storms upon.  Moisture is there and forcing will be there later today as the front approaches.  This should set the stage for another round of storms that will be more widespread across Kentucky this evening.

The tornado threat will be higher to our NE across parts of PA but it will still be non-zero across KY as well.  The main threat though is wind damage here and SPC has included most of KY in the high-end Slight Risk for wind damage today.

Stay weather aware!

-Shawn

Derecho? Maybe! Severe Weather Outbreak Possible

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Summer!  June 1st was not only the beginning of hurricane season but also the beginning of meteorological Summer!

It's been a while since I made time for a blog post but I think it's time to discuss what's going on in the world of Kentucky weather.  First of all, how about this humidity?!  Crazy isn't it?  Typically we get into the middle part of Summer before it really gets sticky.  This year however we've already gone straight to 70°F dewpoint temps before May even came to an end.  I admit, I did not expect that after the Winter we just came from.  My Spring outlook worked out pretty good in Kentucky overall though with a calm severe weather season that picked up a little as time moved forward.  But now we're staring straight at Summer and the weather is becoming very active.

For this upcoming week what we've got to keep an eye on is a possible outbreak of severe weather that could stretch from South Dakota all the way into the Appalachian mountains by week's end.  The models are indicating this to occur as a large MCS (mesoscale convective system) that would race eastward and leave large amounts of damage in it's wake, possibly even as a Derecho.  However, the exact storm mode is not known just yet.  Here's how the WRF model sees things as of the wee hours of the morning on Wednesday:

Even though I'm not sure of what mode this storm activity will take on, I am pretty confident in saying that there will be an outbreak of storms across the nation's midsection this week and it will likely end up leaving quite a bit of damage behind.  Kentucky may get in on this action Wednesday, as the MCS strikes us from the northwest.  Here is the current convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center valid on Wednesday the 4th of June:

So keep in mind if you will be outdoors this week that severe weather is a good possibility and plan accordingly.  As of right now, I believe that wind damage will be widespread and will be the main threat, especially in areas to our northwest.  However, tornadoes and some hail will also be possible.  As always, stay alert and keep the NOAA weather radios on.  You can follow me on Twitter @WXinKY



-Shawn

April Showers Bring May Flowers

The lack of severe weather has been pretty astonishing this Spring.  But it wasn’t totally unexpected.  And though we did have one outbreak with fatalities last week, people are thankful that it hasn’t been a typical season.

 

We do have a slow moving system headed toward the Ohio Valley this weekend that will usher in a pattern change.  Say bye bye to the 80s for a while as thunderstorms and rain become common Friday-Tuesday, followed by cooler weather for next week.

 

Right now it appears that the parent low will scoot off into Canada and take the dynamics with it, so severe weather looks unlikely in Kentucky this weekend.  Plenty of rain for the flowers and trees coming up though.

 

I know I haven’t written much lately, but there hasn’t really been much to write about!  The weather this entire year has been benign of t-storms so far.  Business may still pick up later in May and into early Summer.

 

Take Care,

 

Shawn

Severe is Here!

Update (7:20EDT 3-April-14):

Not many changes from SPC in the new outlooks.  Parts of AR, MO, IL, TN, and KY are going to get hit pretty hard by thunderstorms throughout the day today and into late tonight.  Significant tornadoes (EF-2 or greater) are possible in this area and the wind damage outlook shows a 45% chance of damaging winds.   This includes the Land Between the Lakes national park in western Kentucky.  If you are in this area keep a close eye to the weather and have a plan ready.

Some of this activity might stay together long enough tonight to affect central Kentucky.  It should be in a slightly weakening phase by then, however.

The weekend is still looking pleasant with dry conditions and temperatures in the 50s.

-Shawn



Update (13:50EDT 2-April-14):

SPC just released a new outlook for Thursday and there are no changes to it from previous thinking.

Thunderstorms will be scattered about the area tomorrow and some may be strong.  Tomorrow night the cold front will approach and a squall line will move through late with wind damage and hail possible.  There is a low end threat of tornadoes in central Kentucky also.

Basically, you need to keep an eye to the sky from now until Friday noon when this mess should all begin to move out of the area.

-Shawn

Previous discussion:

I expect April as a whole to be somewhat mild as far as severe weather is concerned compared to average.  But that doesn't mean we won't see ANY severe weather.  A potent low and a stalled warm front in the Ohio Valley will bring repeated thunderstorm episodes to Kentucky from now through Friday.

One such round of storms could be a little on the frisky side as it knocks on our door tomorrow afternoon.

We'll have to keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow.  Here is the latest convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

You'll notice that the brunt of this activity is expected to stay to the west and south of Lexington, KY.  Inside the hatched area is where the greatest threat will be for significant damage from thunderstorms.  Currently, the Bluegrass is in a Slight Risk of severe weather tomorrow.  This outlook will be updated this afternoon and I will post the latest map when it becomes available.

Now is the time to review your preparedness plans and get ready for the possibility of damaging weather conditions Thursday and early Friday.



-Shawn

Spring 2014 Outlook for Kentucky

Wow.  What a Winter.  (I’m going to continue to capitalize the names of the seasons because that’s how my grade school teachers taught my generation to do it, although apparently that’s not common practice now days according to the young journalists.)  We exceeded our average snowfall for the season, our average school snow days for the season, and broke many records for cold temperatures.  Winter 2013-2014 will go down as one of the worst winters in recorded history for Kentucky.

 

We’re finally to that time of year that people love.  The trees are budding, the grass is becoming green again, and the sun’s angle of incidence is growing providing us with more daylight than darkness now.  Spring is on the horizon.  And the question is being asked: what does Spring 2014 have in store for Kentucky?

 

To begin, let’s think about the last 12 months (or perhaps a little longer) of weather here.  The eastern U.S. has been dominated by a trof which means the western U.S. has been in a ridge.  As a result, the average of our weather over the past year to year and a half has been cooler and wetter than average in the Ohio Valley.  This is why we had a very calm severe weather season last Spring.  This is why we totally avoided drought last Summer.  And it’s why the Winter we’re coming out of has been harsh.  Going into Spring 2014 there is no sign of this overall pattern across North America easing up.  The official forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows this well.

 

 

I agree with their assessment.  I think April will be a relatively cool month as a whole, particularly in the first part of the month.  I believe we will see warm temperatures at times toward the latter part of the month but as a whole the month will end below average for temperature.  As far as precipitation, we should end up about average for April.  I believe that the severe weather season will once again be very calm in April as it has been in March due to the influx of cold air dominating the region.  So, cool and wet will be the rule.

 

Looking down the road into May and June I think business will pick up in terms of thunderstorms.  As the sun’s angle draws near the Tropic of Capricorn and the hot air across the Gulf of Mexico finally spreads northward and tries to displace the stubborn cold trof in the eastern U.S., we should see an uptick in severe thunderstorm reports.  Temperatures and precipitation during the latter half of Spring will be about average in my opinion.  So seasonably warm and seasonably wet will be the rule.  Here is the CPC outlook for the period April-June as a whole:

 

Temps

 

Precipitation

 

 

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation that can drive our weather patterns is still running neutral and is forecast to remain this way generally throughout the Spring.  Therefore I don’t feel it will really have much influence.  Eventually as we head into Summer I believe this dominating trof in the east and ridge in the west pattern will start to dissolve and some above average readings may return.  But for the next 3 months I expect us to remain cold early on and gradually work toward normal as far as temperatures go with frequent weather systems bringing rain and storms to the area…not entirely different from last year.  This should cause planting season to be delayed some for agricultural interests, but will also be good for the purposes of storing up groundwater for Summer.

 

Are we done with snow now?  Time will tell…but in past years with cold Winters we have seen a few cold snaps in April and even May and occasionally we do get snow in both months.  If it happens it’ll be very brief.  Winter 1989-1990 featured some of the coldest weather we have ever seen and if you look at Spring 1990 you will find cold snaps lasting into June!  In fact, early June 1990 had at least one morning with near frost conditions!  For those wanting nice weather…hang in there. We are headed that way…just more slowly this year than usual.

 

 

Shawn

 

More Ice for the Bluegrass?

There is still a lot of time for the details to be fine tuned on the Sunday night storm system.  I'm sure the media will blow the hype into overdrive soon, but remember that 5 days is a lot of waiting.  We do not know how this will pan out just yet.

Having said that, the GFS model continues to show a major ice storm for the Bluegrass counties primarily Sunday night and Monday morning.  If you take the 12Z GFS verbatim it would be pretty much a guaranteed disaster with widespread power outages and trees down.  The ECMWF does lend some agreement to this idea.  Here's the GFS from today:

More details will come as they are available.  For now I'd just file this in the back of your head...it's POSSIBLE that we're looking at a major storm early next week.

Take care,

Shawn

Valentine's Day Snow for Kentucky!

Another weather system will come through Kentucky on Valentine’s Day.  Depending on where you are exactly, you may see rain, snow, or a mix of the two.  Let’s break it down:

 

Timing:  Precipitation may break out across central Kentucky as early as late morning, though the brunt of the system looks to come through later in the day.  The late afternoon rush may be impacted, as will evening travel in areas that see snow accumulation.

 

Amounts:  If you draw a line basically along the Bluegrass Parkway from Elizabethtown to Lexington and then along I-64 to Ashland, this will roughly be the cutoff line for accumulation with this system in my opinion.  South of this line, it appears that surface temperatures will move into the upper 30s tomorrow which will drastically cut down on accumulations.  North of this line we will have the best shot at putting more snow on the ground, with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible.  Even farther north into Ohio and Indiana amounts will be less because this looks like a compact and relatively small system that will push through.  The northern half of Kentucky is basically where the most action will be in terms of snowfall.

 

Impacts:  Travel will become dangerous in and around Louisville, Frankfort, Lexington, and Maysville by Friday evening.  This system appears to be a small one, but a strong one.  It may drop a quick 1-3 inches of snow in this area, with a few isolated spots nearing 4 inches.  In my opinion will we probably see the NWS issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this area later today.  In southern Kentucky, a rain/snow mix will likely turn to all rain during the afternoon and then end as snow late Friday night.  Little to no accumulation is expected here.

 

If you have plans to go out Valentine’s night, plan to take your time and drive slowly.  Be careful and don’t ruin your night!

 

 

 

 

 

-Shawn

How Does the Winter of 2013-2014 Stack Up So Far?

We're only about half way through February but I thought it would be neat to look at how this winter stacks up to previous winters in central Kentucky.  So for perspective, here are a few stats:

 

We're at a little over 16 inches of snow for the season so far. We need 27 inches by the end of the month to break into the top 10 winters in history. (Meteorological winter is December 1 through February 28/29). The winter of 1977-1978 is #5 on that list with 32 inches. The winter of 1917-1918 had 41.2 inches! Can we get 11 inches of snow in the next couple of weeks to crack the top 10? Sure, it's possible, but with the models predicting a more zonal flow setting up across the country with warmer temperatures coming I don't think it's looking likely.

 

The greatest amount of time spent with snow cover on the ground is 57 consecutive days ending on March 10, 1978! We are on the 8th day as of today so this winter has no hope of coming remotely close to that record.

 

As far as temperatures go...we're not even in the top 20 coldest winters.

 

The bottom line is that this winter is only slightly worse than average.

 

I will leave with this thought, however:  most winters that do feature quite a bit of cold and snow like this current one are usually followed by at least one more if not two more in consecutive years. We saw harsh winters most recently in the 1950s, 70s, and 90s, so we are due for more in the 2010s if history repeats itself. I think it would be wise for city planners to stock up on salt when October rolls around because this very well may be an indicator that the next couple of winters are going to be worse.

 

-Shawn

February Snow: Round 2

Update Tuesday morning:

Based upon the 00Z data from last night, the map I posted (below) still looks good.  All the available model data takes central KY into the mid 30s for temperatures at the surface this afternoon and mitigates a major ice storm for this area.  Per the model data, the main impact should be north of I-64.

HOWEVER...  The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning anyhow.  This basically runs along I-64 west to Lexington, then to Lawrenceburg, then to Elizabethtown and north of that line.

The reason is we have a snowpack on the ground.  Snow is a great insulator.  It not only traps warmth in the ground, but it cools the air via evaporation during the day and it reflects sunlight with it's high albedo.  So what that basically means is that there is a good possibility that the computer models are not accounting for the snowpack and it's affect on surface temperatures today.  We may not make it above freezing.

IF that happens we are looking at an ice storm this evening anywhere inside the Winter Storm Warning area.  The wise thing to do is to prepare for ice and snow that will make travel almost impossible, and may affect utilities as well.  This could turn out to be a nasty storm.  Here is a look at the counties in the Warning:

I would like to stress again that IF we do not go above freezing today, we've got big problems.  Plan accordingly.

-Shawn



Update Monday afternoon:

The 12Z model data is coming in, and boy it's a headache.  The guidance is all over the place with this next system.  NAM takes the low into Kentucky and brings rain to the Bluegrass.  GFS is trending southward and brings an ice storm to a narrow strip of the state.  The WRF brings the freezing line at the surface northward throughout the day, sort of a compromise of the two.  It's really going to be hard to pinpoint this weather as we will see it.  Who will get snow?  Ice?  Rain?

For now, here is my thinking.  I believe a strip of freezing rain will affect the counties along the OH river tomorrow night and I also think counties north of I-64 in Kentucky will see freezing rain.  This could be a significant amount of freezing rain as well and it could affect utilities and break trees, not to mention making travel almost impossible.  If you live to the north, prepare for a possible ice event tomorrow night.

Along the I-64 corridor we will be very borderline with temperature profiles.  We could have a mixed bag.  Some of us may see a small amount of freezing rain.  The wintry weather will have a minimal impact on this area.

Southern Kentucky looks to enjoy a cold rain tomorrow night.  Everyone will see colder air move in on Wednesday and the precip. will end as flurries or light snow showers.

These areas will move around a bit as the new data comes in.  More data will be coming later via Twitter @WXinKY.  Here is a rough outline of what I'm thinking for now:

Previous discussion:


Well it looks like our snow totals ended up slightly lower than some forecasts showed.  I was expecting about 4" and ended up with 2.5" at my house.  I saw some forecasts for as much as 10" and we'll have to see when reports come in later this morning if anyone in central Kentucky got close to that.

All eyes now turn to the system that was originally getting all the hype last week.  A low will develop and move across the southeast tomorrow.  There will be heavy snow on the north side of it, and perhaps a little ice as well.  To the south of the low there'll be heavy rain.  The issue all along has been trying to nail down exactly where this low is likely to go.  A week ago it was progged to ride up the windward side of the Appalachian mountains, bringing ice and snow to Lawrenceburg and surrounding areas.  Then a few days ago the models started trending northward with the low and hinted at more of a rain event for us.

To say that this storm is a headache would be an understatement.  It's going to be all about the track of the low.  As of 7:00 Monday morning, here is how it looks to pan out currently:

Along and north of I-64 corridor in Kentucky we may see another round of accumulating snow Tuesday night.  This would be enough to cancel schools again Wednesday for sure.  Several inches would be possible if this idea pans out.

South of an Ashland to Lexington to Elizabethtown line, we would see a rain/snow mix with lighter accumulations, if any.  Southern Kentucky would see only rain.

When the new 12Z data comes in today I'll post an update.  This could still be a significant winter weather system for the Commonwealth.  Stay tuned...



-Shawn

February 2014 to come in like a lion??

Sunday afternoon update:

The data is looking like this:  A narrow band of snow will work through central Kentucky tonight.  Along and north of the OH River we should be seeing lighter amounts this time on the order of just a few inches.  Along the I-64 and Bluegrass Parkway corridor we'll see the highest amounts with a half-foot of snow possible.  Southern Kentucky will remain warm enough to mitigate a lot of the accumulation of snow and will likely see a rain/snow mix developing.

After this system passes we go quiet for a short time on Monday afternoon and evening and then Tuesday the next system will approach the area.  I've seen some other mets. talking about this system taking on a colder and more wintry look the closer we get to it.  I'm not sure what they are looking at because the latest data shows warm temperatures in central Kentucky Tuesday with close to 60 degree readings as you go south toward Tennessee.  The track of the low appears to go northwest of the Lexington area, which is great news because it'll take the threat of ice northward with it.

There is yet another system that may take aim at Kentucky by the end of the week but we will cross that bridge when we get to it.  For now, get those shovels ready because the snow is coming tonight!

-Shawn

Wow.  I haven't seen a storm hyped this much in years.  Yes, the computer models are showing a major winter storm developing near Texas next week and then affecting the Ohio Valley in a negative way.  However, at this point it is impossible to say exactly what the sensible weather impacts will be in Kentucky.  This is one of those storms where the track of the low will make all the difference in the world.

I will post more details when the system comes into the U.S. and starts getting sampled by weather models.

I have heard from LOTS of people that "we're getting 15-18 inches of snow next week!".  I honestly don't know where they are hearing that from.  But here is my response to one of them:

"The real story is that what will eventually become that storm is currently 3,000 miles away and it’s not even being sampled and ingested into weather models yet.  Therefore, nobody knows what is going to happen.  Having said that, it appears that a strong winter storm is going to develop near Texas and move directly over top of Kentucky by mid-week.  So we may get freezing rain, rain, and snow.  It all depends on where the storm goes.  If it ends up tracking through TN and eastern KY…we’re getting lots of snow and ice.  If it tracks across central KY we’re getting a small ice event, then rain, then flurries.  If it tracks through Louisville, we’re mostly rain.

Moral of the story is:  nobody knows and won’t until probably Saturday when the storm finally comes into the U.S. and the computer models can get a handle on it."

Utility Bill a Little Ridiculous?

Lots of folks (myself included) are complaining about the utility bill they just got in the mail.  Here are a few thoughts on what's up.

First of all, the National Weather Service uses a unit of measurement called a Degree Day.  It's like Miles per Hour or Gallons per Flush...it's just a unit of measurement.  The assumption is that 65 degrees is what you are shooting for, so if your average temperature of the day is 60, then you have 5 "Heating Degree Days" in order to get back to 65.  And if your average temperature for the day is 80, then you have 15 "Cooling Degree Days" to get down to 65.  You take the high for the day, and the low, average them and then check the difference from the 65 degree base temperature.

So, if the average temperature for the day was 65 then you have zero Degree Days and therefore you need no heat or air conditioning running in your house.  Now, obviously during the winter in Kentucky we spend a lot of time, in fact most of our time, below 65 degrees both day and night.  So we accumulate Heating Degree Days almost every day.  But...the more you accumulate the more energy it takes to maintain that 65 degree temperature, so more is worse.  And the problem right now is that we are already at 442 Heating Degree Days for the month which is 26 above normal and it's just half way through the month!  So that is why Kentucky Utilities and other utility companies have set new records for usage this month.  The more HDDs you get, the more money it costs!

Now, there are two additional things that compound the problem.  Number one is that most people in Kentucky keep their thermostat at a temperature higher than 65 degrees.  Which means that you are in effect adding even more HDDs to your personal situation which costs you even more money.  The second issue is that lots of contractors who build houses in Kentucky are using heat pumps and all-electric style HVAC systems...and they don't belong this far north.  Any climate where you routinely go below freezing and stay there during winter is a bad environment for a heat pump style system.  They lose a LOT of efficiency below 40 degrees and the colder it gets the less efficient they are.  In Florida they are awesome.  In the Ohio Valley, not so much.  So if you own a heat pump, you probably noticed that it ran constantly last week when the temperature was below zero.  That's because the science involved in how the machine draws heat from the air (which I won't bore you with) dictated that it was just impossible for your unit to get enough heat from sub-zero air to keep the house warm.  So, the unit ran constantly and some folks might have increased the temperature at the thermostat thinking it will make up for it but it doesn't...it just makes it worse.

Also, the lower the air temperature the less humidity the air can hold.  That's why in winter the air gets dry.  And the more dry the air becomes the "colder" it feels to the human body.  70 degrees with high humidity and 70 degrees with low humidity feel totally different to us, even though the temperature hasn't changed a bit.  That's why people have the tendency to crank the thermostat up high in the winter, and turn it down low in summer, rather than just leaving it in one place all year long.

Put all of these things together, and that's why utility bills are astronomical in Kentucky right now.  The wife and I have seen our bill close to $400 in the winter and in the early summer it might only be $60!  It's easy to see that COLD air puts a huge strain on the electric grid, which costs the utility company a lot of money, which in turn costs you and I a lot of money.

Maybe that's why propane and natural gas fireplaces are becoming so popular now days.  Best thing to do is set the t-stat and leave it alone.  Dress warmer if you have to.  Use the fireplace and spend time cuddled up near it.  Try to conserve energy the best you can and get through the really cold days.  Remember...this cold air is only temporary.  Spring will be here before you know it!


-Shawn

Tornado Siren Legislation in Kentucky Update

Well, I tried.  Looks like the legislation I pushed last year for warning siren consistency in usage isn't going to get another go this year.  Too many County Judge Executives are ignoring the need for it. They are saying "one-call systems are the future" and "we don't like sirens".

Well, that's all great and everything...IF every citizen carries a smartphone in their pocket 24/7 AND IF they are registered on the one-call list.  But you're going to have farmers, hunters, fishers, construction workers, people at sporting events, people at pools, etc. etc. etc. that are NOT going to be connected to one-call systems while they're outside doing what they do and when a tornado pops over the hill they're in a mess because these folks didn't understand the need for audible outdoor warning systems and wouldn't take the word of someone who does to protect their citizens.

The outdoor warning sirens were never intended to reach people who are indoors.  And even in today's society there are countless reasons why people spend time outdoors and not every person is connected to a wireless network constantly.  The audible warning from sirens is still just as relevant today as it was in the post WWII era.  But since the technology is there to rely on smartphones and fancy dialing systems, these Judges and EM Directors are being led astray and they are going to decrease the safety of their citizens by abandoning a tried and true warning system in coming years.

OK, rant is over now.  I hope you all stay safe.  Severe weather season will be upon us before you know it.  Let's pray that Kentucky doesn't find itself in a large tornado outbreak this season.

-Shawn

Coldest Air in 18 Years Coming to Kentucky?

It's a cold day in Kentucky.  Wind chills last night bottomed out just below zero with snow falling and the wind howling behind a cold front of arctic origin.  The sun has risen on a new day and thankfully the wind and snow is gone, but the cold air remains.  Highs today won't get out of the 20s.

Tomorrow will be a dry day but it will remain cold and most of the day will be spent below freezing again.

Another arctic cold front will approach the Ohio Valley on Sunday.  It appears that a low will develop in the deep south and ride up the front which will enhance precipitation.  A period of rain will begin on Sunday in central Kentucky but I expect it to quickly transition to all snow by the afternoon and evening hours.  The cold air really looks to come crashing in behind this front which may enhance snow ratios.  The area closer to Louisville stands the best shot at seeing several inches of snow from this.  However, the Lexington area will also get some accumulation.  I think that Anderson County schools will likely be cancelled on Monday due to weather...but we will see.

Here is a look at today's NAM model run for Sunday.  Notice the heavy snow bands setting up in the bluegrass and the tight isotherms indicating rapid temperature falls:

This is going to make the roads a mess Sunday night if this model verifies.  It could end up being the biggest winter storm we've seen here in quite a while.

The GFS run from today takes the path of the low directly across the Bluegrass, and therefore keeps us in the rain a little longer.  It still shows us going to all snow Sunday night and lays down some accumulation, but amounts would be lighter for us if this model verifies:

Behind this snow, arctic air will spill into Kentucky.  Exactly 20 years ago this month we saw arctic air set all time records in our state with Shelbyville dropping all the way to -37°F on the 19th.  That is simply astonishing cold for this part of the nation.  I don't expect it to get that cold next week, but we do have a very good shot at below zero readings with brutal wind chill values that will make it very dangerous to be outdoors without proper clothing.  It could be the coldest air many of us have seen in 18 years.  The mid-90s had a lot of brutal winters.  Remember to protect your plumbing from freezing by allowing a faucet to drip, and don't leave your pets outside unless you own Siberian Huskies.  Stay warm, and check on elderly relatives.


-Shawn