February 2014 to come in like a lion??

Sunday afternoon update:

The data is looking like this:  A narrow band of snow will work through central Kentucky tonight.  Along and north of the OH River we should be seeing lighter amounts this time on the order of just a few inches.  Along the I-64 and Bluegrass Parkway corridor we'll see the highest amounts with a half-foot of snow possible.  Southern Kentucky will remain warm enough to mitigate a lot of the accumulation of snow and will likely see a rain/snow mix developing.

After this system passes we go quiet for a short time on Monday afternoon and evening and then Tuesday the next system will approach the area.  I've seen some other mets. talking about this system taking on a colder and more wintry look the closer we get to it.  I'm not sure what they are looking at because the latest data shows warm temperatures in central Kentucky Tuesday with close to 60 degree readings as you go south toward Tennessee.  The track of the low appears to go northwest of the Lexington area, which is great news because it'll take the threat of ice northward with it.

There is yet another system that may take aim at Kentucky by the end of the week but we will cross that bridge when we get to it.  For now, get those shovels ready because the snow is coming tonight!

-Shawn

Wow.  I haven't seen a storm hyped this much in years.  Yes, the computer models are showing a major winter storm developing near Texas next week and then affecting the Ohio Valley in a negative way.  However, at this point it is impossible to say exactly what the sensible weather impacts will be in Kentucky.  This is one of those storms where the track of the low will make all the difference in the world.

I will post more details when the system comes into the U.S. and starts getting sampled by weather models.

I have heard from LOTS of people that "we're getting 15-18 inches of snow next week!".  I honestly don't know where they are hearing that from.  But here is my response to one of them:

"The real story is that what will eventually become that storm is currently 3,000 miles away and it’s not even being sampled and ingested into weather models yet.  Therefore, nobody knows what is going to happen.  Having said that, it appears that a strong winter storm is going to develop near Texas and move directly over top of Kentucky by mid-week.  So we may get freezing rain, rain, and snow.  It all depends on where the storm goes.  If it ends up tracking through TN and eastern KY…we’re getting lots of snow and ice.  If it tracks across central KY we’re getting a small ice event, then rain, then flurries.  If it tracks through Louisville, we’re mostly rain.

Moral of the story is:  nobody knows and won’t until probably Saturday when the storm finally comes into the U.S. and the computer models can get a handle on it."

Utility Bill a Little Ridiculous?

Lots of folks (myself included) are complaining about the utility bill they just got in the mail.  Here are a few thoughts on what's up.

First of all, the National Weather Service uses a unit of measurement called a Degree Day.  It's like Miles per Hour or Gallons per Flush...it's just a unit of measurement.  The assumption is that 65 degrees is what you are shooting for, so if your average temperature of the day is 60, then you have 5 "Heating Degree Days" in order to get back to 65.  And if your average temperature for the day is 80, then you have 15 "Cooling Degree Days" to get down to 65.  You take the high for the day, and the low, average them and then check the difference from the 65 degree base temperature.

So, if the average temperature for the day was 65 then you have zero Degree Days and therefore you need no heat or air conditioning running in your house.  Now, obviously during the winter in Kentucky we spend a lot of time, in fact most of our time, below 65 degrees both day and night.  So we accumulate Heating Degree Days almost every day.  But...the more you accumulate the more energy it takes to maintain that 65 degree temperature, so more is worse.  And the problem right now is that we are already at 442 Heating Degree Days for the month which is 26 above normal and it's just half way through the month!  So that is why Kentucky Utilities and other utility companies have set new records for usage this month.  The more HDDs you get, the more money it costs!

Now, there are two additional things that compound the problem.  Number one is that most people in Kentucky keep their thermostat at a temperature higher than 65 degrees.  Which means that you are in effect adding even more HDDs to your personal situation which costs you even more money.  The second issue is that lots of contractors who build houses in Kentucky are using heat pumps and all-electric style HVAC systems...and they don't belong this far north.  Any climate where you routinely go below freezing and stay there during winter is a bad environment for a heat pump style system.  They lose a LOT of efficiency below 40 degrees and the colder it gets the less efficient they are.  In Florida they are awesome.  In the Ohio Valley, not so much.  So if you own a heat pump, you probably noticed that it ran constantly last week when the temperature was below zero.  That's because the science involved in how the machine draws heat from the air (which I won't bore you with) dictated that it was just impossible for your unit to get enough heat from sub-zero air to keep the house warm.  So, the unit ran constantly and some folks might have increased the temperature at the thermostat thinking it will make up for it but it doesn't...it just makes it worse.

Also, the lower the air temperature the less humidity the air can hold.  That's why in winter the air gets dry.  And the more dry the air becomes the "colder" it feels to the human body.  70 degrees with high humidity and 70 degrees with low humidity feel totally different to us, even though the temperature hasn't changed a bit.  That's why people have the tendency to crank the thermostat up high in the winter, and turn it down low in summer, rather than just leaving it in one place all year long.

Put all of these things together, and that's why utility bills are astronomical in Kentucky right now.  The wife and I have seen our bill close to $400 in the winter and in the early summer it might only be $60!  It's easy to see that COLD air puts a huge strain on the electric grid, which costs the utility company a lot of money, which in turn costs you and I a lot of money.

Maybe that's why propane and natural gas fireplaces are becoming so popular now days.  Best thing to do is set the t-stat and leave it alone.  Dress warmer if you have to.  Use the fireplace and spend time cuddled up near it.  Try to conserve energy the best you can and get through the really cold days.  Remember...this cold air is only temporary.  Spring will be here before you know it!


-Shawn

Tornado Siren Legislation in Kentucky Update

Well, I tried.  Looks like the legislation I pushed last year for warning siren consistency in usage isn't going to get another go this year.  Too many County Judge Executives are ignoring the need for it. They are saying "one-call systems are the future" and "we don't like sirens".

Well, that's all great and everything...IF every citizen carries a smartphone in their pocket 24/7 AND IF they are registered on the one-call list.  But you're going to have farmers, hunters, fishers, construction workers, people at sporting events, people at pools, etc. etc. etc. that are NOT going to be connected to one-call systems while they're outside doing what they do and when a tornado pops over the hill they're in a mess because these folks didn't understand the need for audible outdoor warning systems and wouldn't take the word of someone who does to protect their citizens.

The outdoor warning sirens were never intended to reach people who are indoors.  And even in today's society there are countless reasons why people spend time outdoors and not every person is connected to a wireless network constantly.  The audible warning from sirens is still just as relevant today as it was in the post WWII era.  But since the technology is there to rely on smartphones and fancy dialing systems, these Judges and EM Directors are being led astray and they are going to decrease the safety of their citizens by abandoning a tried and true warning system in coming years.

OK, rant is over now.  I hope you all stay safe.  Severe weather season will be upon us before you know it.  Let's pray that Kentucky doesn't find itself in a large tornado outbreak this season.

-Shawn

Coldest Air in 18 Years Coming to Kentucky?

It's a cold day in Kentucky.  Wind chills last night bottomed out just below zero with snow falling and the wind howling behind a cold front of arctic origin.  The sun has risen on a new day and thankfully the wind and snow is gone, but the cold air remains.  Highs today won't get out of the 20s.

Tomorrow will be a dry day but it will remain cold and most of the day will be spent below freezing again.

Another arctic cold front will approach the Ohio Valley on Sunday.  It appears that a low will develop in the deep south and ride up the front which will enhance precipitation.  A period of rain will begin on Sunday in central Kentucky but I expect it to quickly transition to all snow by the afternoon and evening hours.  The cold air really looks to come crashing in behind this front which may enhance snow ratios.  The area closer to Louisville stands the best shot at seeing several inches of snow from this.  However, the Lexington area will also get some accumulation.  I think that Anderson County schools will likely be cancelled on Monday due to weather...but we will see.

Here is a look at today's NAM model run for Sunday.  Notice the heavy snow bands setting up in the bluegrass and the tight isotherms indicating rapid temperature falls:

This is going to make the roads a mess Sunday night if this model verifies.  It could end up being the biggest winter storm we've seen here in quite a while.

The GFS run from today takes the path of the low directly across the Bluegrass, and therefore keeps us in the rain a little longer.  It still shows us going to all snow Sunday night and lays down some accumulation, but amounts would be lighter for us if this model verifies:

Behind this snow, arctic air will spill into Kentucky.  Exactly 20 years ago this month we saw arctic air set all time records in our state with Shelbyville dropping all the way to -37°F on the 19th.  That is simply astonishing cold for this part of the nation.  I don't expect it to get that cold next week, but we do have a very good shot at below zero readings with brutal wind chill values that will make it very dangerous to be outdoors without proper clothing.  It could be the coldest air many of us have seen in 18 years.  The mid-90s had a lot of brutal winters.  Remember to protect your plumbing from freezing by allowing a faucet to drip, and don't leave your pets outside unless you own Siberian Huskies.  Stay warm, and check on elderly relatives.


-Shawn