Not many changes from SPC in the new outlooks. Parts of AR, MO, IL, TN, and KY are going to get hit pretty hard by thunderstorms throughout the day today and into late tonight. Significant tornadoes (EF-2 or greater) are possible in this area and the wind damage outlook shows a 45% chance of damaging winds. This includes the Land Between the Lakes national park in western Kentucky. If you are in this area keep a close eye to the weather and have a plan ready.
Some of this activity might stay together long enough tonight to affect central Kentucky. It should be in a slightly weakening phase by then, however.
The weekend is still looking pleasant with dry conditions and temperatures in the 50s.
-Shawn
Update (13:50EDT 2-April-14):
SPC just released a new outlook for Thursday and there are no changes to it from previous thinking.
Thunderstorms will be scattered about the area tomorrow and some may be strong. Tomorrow night the cold front will approach and a squall line will move through late with wind damage and hail possible. There is a low end threat of tornadoes in central Kentucky also.
Basically, you need to keep an eye to the sky from now until Friday noon when this mess should all begin to move out of the area.
-Shawn
Previous discussion:
I expect April as a whole to be somewhat mild as far as severe weather is concerned compared to average. But that doesn't mean we won't see ANY severe weather. A potent low and a stalled warm front in the Ohio Valley will bring repeated thunderstorm episodes to Kentucky from now through Friday.
One such round of storms could be a little on the frisky side as it knocks on our door tomorrow afternoon.
We'll have to keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow. Here is the latest convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:
You'll notice that the brunt of this activity is expected to stay to the west and south of Lexington, KY. Inside the hatched area is where the greatest threat will be for significant damage from thunderstorms. Currently, the Bluegrass is in a Slight Risk of severe weather tomorrow. This outlook will be updated this afternoon and I will post the latest map when it becomes available.
Now is the time to review your preparedness plans and get ready for the possibility of damaging weather conditions Thursday and early Friday.
-Shawn
