The storm coming up for Monday morning still looks very similar in the model data to the last several days of runs. Today's GFS run continues to hammer central Kentucky with several hours of snowfall early Monday. Take a look:
The change in the forecast is that the northern stream system that looked to maybe bring some snow Saturday is now being forecast to stay mostly north of Kentucky. So, aside from some flurries I don't expect any accumulation on Saturday at this point. The southern branch system is still on track for a Monday arrival and the models are still hinting at a deformation band of snow to set up just south of the Ohio River. The Lexington area could see a few inches of accumulation from this if the surface temperatures are near the freezing mark Monday morning. The higher elevations of eastern Kentucky could also see a nice snowfall.
I expect that headlines will be coming this weekend and we might see the first Advisory or Watch of the season issued by the fine folks at the National Weather Service as early as tomorrow. A day out of school is a real possibility for many on Monday.
This will be my final blog update. You can catch me on Facebook or Twitter @WXinKY for daily updates. Have a great weekend.
-Shawn
Previous discussion:
Good Wednesday morning. Hope you all enjoyed Veterans Day. The weather this week has been delightful in the Bluegrass but that is changing today as temperatures have fallen significantly behind a frontal passage late last night. We are now going into a period of more winter-like weather that will carry us through the weekend.
The big question on the minds of kids and teachers alike right now is: when will there be a snow day?!
Well, it is impossible to say. But...Monday November 17th is trying to emerge as a possible winner for that "first snow day" award.
I've been tracking this storm for a few days and haven't really said a whole lot about it because, to be honest, the models have struggled lately. But we are in that 3-4 day window now where it's time to start looking at this more in depth. The GFS and ECMWF models are starting to agree just a tad on how this is going to play out. I hope that with the 12:00UTC runs today they will agree even more on a solution.
The idea here is that on Saturday we could have a system streaking in from the northwest. This will bring snow to the air but probably will not accumulate much in our neck of the woods. As that's happening, a separate system will organize to our south and lift northward. This system will strike on Sunday night. Southern stream systems are really hard to forecast and the computer models do not have a lot of success with them. But, IF this system organizes as it's show right now and IF there is enough cold air at the surface we will get a snow day for many counties on Monday. Keep in mind that there are a lot of ifs in that equation.
The ECMWF model shows the freezing line hanging out directly over us...which is usually the case for Kentucky and that's why it's so hard to predict snow around here. Geographically, we're just always on the fence. I will keep watching of course. And I'll leave you with the current ECMWF run valid Monday early morning:
Temps:
Precip:
There is a chance!
-Shawn
