Having said that, I want to do a quick update here with some thoughts about tonight. April has brought almost 9" of rain to Lawrenceburg and surrounding areas which is double what we should get in the entire month. There is a lot more rain coming both today and over the next 7-10 days as well so this may go down as the wettest April ever. When you consider that March gave us over 6" of rain and 16" of snow, it is just astonishing. So please keep an eye out for flash flooding and do not drive into areas where water covers the road. Moving water can and will drag your vehicle downstream.
SPC is focusing on areas just to our west for severe weather concentration today:
This doesn't mean Kentucky is out of the woods yet. The latest HRRR model shows more storms entering central Kentucky by early afternoon:
It then shows a powerful squall line developing along the front itself and sweeping in overnight:
Tornadoes are a threat with this activity, but the best chance of tornadoes will stay just northwest of Kentucky today I think. That's where the best dynamics for rotation will exist. Large hail will be the biggest threat for Kentuckians. The freezing level is at around 11,000 ft. and there isn't much of a cap showing up in the sounding this morning so the storms will go big fast and drop hail. Wind damage is a secondary threat today. In addition, with the very juicy airmass we've got in place, lightning has been incredible with these storms and some houses and structures are being struck. Cloud to ground lightning is a killer so when you hear thunder, go inside! These storms are dangerous this week.
Once the front sweeps through tomorrow, the weekend looks really great. More heavy rain looks to return next week, so enjoy the weekend!
-Shawn
