Winter ‘16-‘17 is nearly upon us.
Time falls back an hour NEXT weekend (November 6), people are beginning
to think about Christmas, and yet another year is wrapping up soon. And that brings up another thought that
everyone has; Will it snow a lot again this year?
I mentioned on the page the other day that I don’t think I’m going
to spend a lot of time on a full blown winter forecast this year. It’s going to be exceedingly difficult this
year because of the mixed signals I’m seeing and truthfully I think that it’s
almost impossible this year to predict what the latter stages of winter will
bring. The period from February through
March is completely up in the air and you’re going to see a lot of seasonal
forecasts bust. Winter forecasting is
never a simple thing to do, but this year it’s going to be really tough. Having said that, I do feel that I can give
you a reasonable idea of what to expect November through January so let’s take
a look at the weather that we will likely be dealing with for the upcoming
holiday season. This should give you at
least an idea of which direction this winter looks to take.
First of all, I always say that history repeats itself. Looking at the historical record can give a
lot of clues as to what the future holds.
We had a period of horrible winters in the 1950s, 1970s, and 1990s. I therefore concluded that if the pattern
holds, the 2010s should give us some good snow.
Seems logical, right? Well, we’ve
just come off of three consecutive winters with abnormally cold weather and
abnormally high snowfall totals.
Amazingly, we saw record amounts of snow three years ago that caused the
most school closure days I’ve seen in my lifetime, followed by not one, but TWO
snowfalls exceeding a foot deep two winters ago, and then yet another snowfall
exceeding a foot deep last year. Just
amazing stuff that truthfully shocks me.
But, history will repeat itself and that means that the balance is
coming. Warmer winters with less snow
are coming and that will balance out the last few years. Remember, nature always tries to achieve equilibrium.
Then you have the ENSO cycle.
Last year we saw a really strong El Nino set up, and that influenced our
weather. Well, currently we’re neutral
to slightly into the La Nina phase. The
forecast models indicate that La Nina will likely carry us through the fall, in
a weak phase, and then it’s likely that early next year we’ll go into neutral
conditions. What this means is that the
ENSO cycle won’t be a big factor in our winter weather this year. This will act to give us a different look to
the overall pattern than what we've seen.
Lastly, if you look at a couple of the seasonal models, the JMA
(Japanese model) and the CFS (Climate Forecast System), you notice that both of
them are predicting mild conditions across the Ohio Valley region from now
through January and possibly into February.
Now, remember that this doesn’t mean that it’s going to be 75 degrees
every day. This just means that the
average temperatures for the period are predicted to be above normal. In short, we should at least begin with a
mild winter.
Here's what the JMA is showing:
Notice that precipitation and surface temps are both near avearge, with some slightly above average temps just to our west. This is valid for the 3-month period beginning in November.
Now, take a look at some of the CFS data:
It, too, shows slightly above average to average temps. across the Ohio Valley region during the period of meteorological winter which is December through February.
Of course, one must also consider the various oscillations and indices that give clues about the large scale patterns that we may see. There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle, but this should give you an idea about where we're headed.
We’ve all heard that the Farmers’ Almanac shows a crippling winter in the Ohio Valley. And I myself have seen the solid white wooly
caterpillars, which are said to mean that blizzards are coming. Like I said, the back half of winter, March
in particular, could be anyone’s guess.
But from the data I’m seeing and the pattern we’re currently in, and
taking history into account, I believe that winter 2016-2017 is generally going
to be milder than the last few winters.
And I believe we’re going to generally see less snow than the last few
winters.
So there you have it. A
brief look at the seasonal forecast.
Now, let's enjoy every day to the fullest, and time will tell if this
forecast works out or not. November begins next week, and it'll be t-shirts and sunglasses.
-Shawn
