Heat Wave in March

The amazing thing about this warm wave is that there is no obvious end to it in sight.  It appears that maybe during the middle of next week the pattern may break down a little bit with a frontal passage...but even the GFS points to 70s returning right afterward.  This may go down as one of the warmest March months ever recorded.

 

Bugs will be awful this year.  Lots of pest problems.  The winter was mild and didn't really kill them off... plus it's been wet..  now it's an early start to Spring.  Look for mosquitoes to fly in squadrons.  They may even start a TOPGUN school for their finest.  It’s going to be a bug spray kind of Summer around here.

 

Severe WX season is far from done.  I believe April still has a shot at being terrible.  Cold weather?  Might return, but unlikely.  Someone noted that we had a warm March in '07 I think it was...and then a killing freeze in April.  I suppose that is very possible again this year..but it is unlikely.  The shear persistence of this pattern we’ve seen since December has been nothing short of amazing.

 

I'm also growing worried about the possibility of Summer drought...but I don’t even want to think about that right now.  Let’s focus on March/April and the warmth and storms it may bring.

 

Basking in 70s tomorrow afternoon:

 

 

 

 

Shawn

 

Kentucky Forecast

After a cold start Saturday morning with temps down in the 20s (Brrr!) it appears that we’re going right back to the warm Spring pattern that we’ve really been seeing for a long while now.  50s will be common this weekend under sunny skies.  Should make for a great weekend to work in the yard, break out the baseball cleats, or whatever you have planned!  By early next week, the GFS modeling shows temperatures flirting with the 70s!  We should be in a very warm pattern with scattered storms all week from Monday-Friday... a pattern that we usually see in early Summer rather than late Winter!

 

For now, enjoy the gorgeous weekend we’ve got coming up!  And feast your eyes on these warmer temps headed our way!

 

Snow and Temperatures Across Kentucky

Good afternoon.  I just wanted to show you something really cool.  A band of heavy snow worked across Kentucky last night, dropping 3-6” of heavy wet snow across areas mostly along a Louisville to Lexington to Pikeville line.  Today, the sun is shining statewide, and you can very easily see where the sharp cutoff to the snow was simply by looking at temperatures!  The snow has a high albedo...which means that it reflects a LOT of incoming solar energy.  This prevents the ground from soaking up the radiation and warming.  By contrast, the areas with no snowfall saw temps. go as much as 10 degrees higher today because the ground soaked up the sunlight and warmed.  Snow is definitely an excellent insulator!!  This is also why wearing sunglasses on a snowy day is a must.

 

 

 

 

-Shawn

Snow?

Update:  Looks like the NAM model was the champ again, as it's more agressive forecast for 2-4" of snow came to pass.  We got 4" in Lawrenceburg.  Here's a view from the hillside:

Good Sunday evening.  We just wrapped up a wild week of weather here in Kentucky.  Two tornado outbreaks 48 hours apart ripped through the state and devestated many areas.  We're going to see people picking up the pieces for a long while unfortunately.   To really add a little more wild to the mix, we are now under a Winter Weather Advisory for snow effective tonight.  Looks like a swath of 1-4" of snow will sweep through Kentucky tonight, and some school cancellations will be possible!

I think that areas along the BG parkway will stand the best shot at seeing accumulating snowfall tonight...but areas in and east of Lexington will see some good snow as well.  The question is will the warm ground hold accumulations down?  For now, my advice would be to plan a little extra time to get to work tomorrow, in case roads are slippery.

This episode will be short lived, as Spring-like weather will quickly return by mid-week.

-Shawn

Severe Weather Outbreak: Round 2

As of the noon hour today, the National Weather Service office in Louisville has confirmed 4 tornadoes occurred with yesterday’s outbreak.  Of those, 3 of them are being classified as EF-2 in strength.  Survey teams are still investigating and these numbers may rise later today.  I’m sure you’ve seen the pictures and video on the news..  it was an outbreak that caused mass destruction.

 

We are 24 hours away from round two.  Yet another strong low pressure system will develop today in Missouri and move toward the Great Lakes Friday night.  As it does so, it’ll drag a cold front into the Ohio Valley.  With good lift from the front, as well as good moisture and howling winds with lots of shear, or turning of direction with height, the stage will be set again for a repeat of Wednesday.

 

Here is how I think this will shape up:

 

During the wee hours of Friday morning, before sunrise, t-storms will break out near the warm front moving through Tennessee.  By sunrise Friday, these storms will intensify in strength and may become severe.  This cluster of thunderstorms may cause damage in middle Tennessee as it moves through the Nashville area.  Here is the WRF model depiction:

 

 

By lunchtime on Friday, this batch of severe weather will push northward into Kentucky.  Hail and wind damage will be possible with this activity.  Tornadoes will also be possible with any of these storms.

 

After this batch of severe weather pushes through, a break in the action will take place for a few hours.  Then, a severe squall line will develop along the cold front.  This will race eastward Friday evening and into the night.  Wind damage will be the main threat with this line, with a couple of quick tornado spin-ups possible.  At this time, it appears that southern KY, Tennessee, and northern Alabama will be most affected by this line.  However, central KY may see severe weather with this line as well.  Here’s the WRF model depiction of the squall line Friday night:

 

 

So in a nutshell:  cluster of severe weather, damaging and deadly, will move out of TN and into KY during the first half of Friday.  Then a second round of severe weather, mostly a wind threat, will sweep through Friday night.

 

Here is the current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:  The hatched area is the area where violent tornadoes (EF3 or larger) and significant severe weather is possible.   Lexington, KY to Nashville, TN is right in the bulls-eye.  This is a serious situation.  Please spread the word to family and friends.  Stay alert, and keep a NOAA weather radio handy.

 

 

-Shawn