Thursday, June 21, 2012

Kentucky goes into drought...we hoped this wouldn't happen.

As I mentioned in the Summer Outlook, indications for the summer are that there is neither a good signal for wet/cool weather nor drought.  There are equal chances that it could go either way this year.  ENSO conditions are neutral and may change soon, but La Nina is currently over with and the pattern for North America isn’t conducive for definite drought or otherwise.

 

However...despite what data we have to go on to make a season outlook, we are dry here in central Kentucky regardless.  In fact, as of June 19 we are now in the “D0 – Abnormally  Dry” zone on the U.S. Drought Monitor.  The scale is D0 to D4, with D1 the beginning stages of actual drought.  So almost all of central Kentucky is now in the dry stages preceding a drought.  Not a good sign.  There is a small sliver of eastern Kentucky that is already in the “D1 – Moderate Drought” phase. 

 

 

 

The bad news about this is that drought breeds more drought usually.  When the ground gets dry and void of moisture, you lose a lot of ability to produce clouds.  And with no tall clouds, you get no rain.  So it’s one of those situations where once you get into drought it’s like a machine that keeps feeding itself.

 

We do have a small chance at a storm tonight, as a cold front drops into Kentucky...but the time of day is not favorable at all for this to be a widespread event.  Another small shot at rain comes Sunday but it’s the same situation...not a ton of moisture to work with really and the timing is bad.  So we could easily stay dry both tonight and on Sunday.  Therefore, the dry conditions look to get worse over at least the next 7-10 days.

 

I was really hoping for conditions to remain somewhat normal going into summer with no drought this year, but right now things are starting to fall apart.  Let’s hope that the tropics remain active...perhaps we can get some land falling tropical systems to bring nourishing rainfall to the Ohio Valley.

 

 

-Shawn

Monday, June 4, 2012

Kentucky Weather Flashback: 2004

Back in the "dead of winter" I did a write-up about the ferocious winter of 1994.  From massive snowfalls, to ice storms, to the coldest temperatures EVER recorded in the Commonwealth of Kentucky, 1994 permanently changed the way society views winter weather in this state.

Now that we're into meteorological summer in the Bluegrass, I thought I'd do another flashback to a year that featured wild weather and an unusual summer: 2004.

The year 2004 was a quiet year weatherwise in the beginning, with little snowfall in January and February.  We saw roughly five inches of snowfall during both months combined, and the temperatures were spot-on normal for the time of year.  Things would quickly turn into anything but normal, however.  Spring became warmer than average with temperatures a few degrees above our normals for the March-May time frame.  Rainfall during spring was the big story, with nearly 20 inches falling from March through May in many areas of central Kentucky which led to some flooding.  Similar to 2012, severe thunderstorm reports were isolated at best, except for one large outbreak of tornadoes.

It was summer, however, that got the most news coverage.  The word drought was never mentioned, as we saw ample rainfall from beginning to end.  June brought 5.05 inches of rainfall at the official reporting station in Lexington, July was a soaker with 8.68 inches, and even August saw 4.06 inches of precipitation.  The summer of 2004 was a farmer's dream.  To make things even better, we did not see a single 90 degree temperature the entire year.  The highest reading was 89 degrees which occurred on the 19th of August.  However, August also featured several days in the 70s and finished as our 4th coolest August ever.  The entire summer was relatively cool and wet.  The time of year that normally scorches us with heat would prove not to in 2004.  We hadn't seen a year with no 90 degree days since 1974.  It was a truly comfortable summer that left many people wishing it could be that way every year.

The summer season wasn't perfect though.  On the 13th of July, a derecho swept across the state bringing mass destruction.  A derecho is a large, organized line of thunderstorms often shaped like a bow that rapidly drops south across an area and typically causes serious wind damage.  The derecho that moved through Kentucky that night brought widespread 60-80 miles per hour winds.  The weather station at WKU recorded a gust of 84 miles per hour.  Louisville Gas and Electric reported that it caused the most power outages they had seen since the famous 1974 "super outbreak" of tornadoes.  Trees were snapped across a large area of the state and lots of property damage reports were sent to the National Weather Service office in Louisville from all over central Kentucky.  Check out the shear number of damage reports that came in that night.  We rarely see this much damage:



When fall came around the rains continued.  October was the 4th wettest ever recorded here, and even November had frequent rainfall.  The heavy rains of October and November turned into heavy snow in December.  Winter came in like the proverbial lion with a snowstorm that dropped two feet of accumulation near Louisville and caused many areas in that part of Kentucky to shut down completely.

Despite all the intense weather we saw in 2004, and the many records that were broken, it would be the summer period that would stay on the minds of Kentuckians for years to come.  The dry ground and summer heat and humidity that is a staple of life in our state during the longest days of the year never materialized, and it was like a refreshing gift from nature.  We have already seen readings above 90 degrees this year, but if you look at the year as a whole it has been very similar to 2004 in many ways.  Could summer shape up to be cooler and wetter than average here again?  There are many people who would be very thankful if it did, and I myself am one of them.


-Shawn


Some data assembled by the National Weather Service office, Louisville, Kentucky

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Severe weather outlook for Kentucky

We’ve been largely without severe weather in Kentucky for quite some time now.  April and May turned out to be very quiet months here... and usually those are our two biggest severe weather months.  We’ve been fortunate.  However, on this final day of May, it looks like the month is going to “go out like a lion”.

 

We have a weather system currently taking shape over the Plains and spreading severe weather from there eastward.  As the low moves toward western Kentucky and southern Illinois this afternoon, it will lift a warm front northward through the Bluegrass of Kentucky.  Scattered thunderstorms may accompany this feature through the afternoon hours. 

 

Then we will be in the “warm sector” of the storm system.  This is when things may get really interesting.  With the low nearby, and warm moist air in place, being lifted by a sweeping cold front..  the stage will be set for severe thunderstorms to fire up tonight across Kentucky.  There is a pretty good chance that wind damage will be seen around the state.  A threat of a few tornadoes does also exist.  You’ll want to keep the NOAA weather radios nearby this afternoon and especially tonight.  Don’t be caught off guard.

 

Here is the current outlook for tornadoes from the Storm Prediction Center:

 

 

 

You can see that we are firmly in the bulls eye for any of this activity today.  Here is the outlook for wind damage:

 

 

 

 

 

Stay safe this evening!

 

 

-Shawn

Monday, May 14, 2012

Summer 2012 Outlook for Kentucky

 

As of May 10th, this year is still the warmest year ever recorded in the bluegrass area of Kentucky.  The official average temperature at Lexington for the period January 1 through May 10 is 49.1°F.  This surpasses the old record of 47.7°F set in 1921.  Some say Spring got an early start this year.  I say Winter never really began.

 

As far as precipitation goes, we are right at normal for the year.  The average from January 1 through May 10 is 16.24” at the Lexington station, and we only recorded 14.82” during that timeframe.  However, this doesn’t take into consideration the nearly 2.00” of rainfall we received over the Mothers Day weekend.  So we’re looking really great in terms of rainfall for the gardens and crop fields.

 

So where do we go from here?  The official outlook for Summer issued by the Climate Prediction Center indicates that neither drought nor a wet summer is likely.  They are predicting, based upon the global weather patterns expected, that Kentucky will see a very average season in terms of rainfall from June through September.  Temperatures are expected to be very close to average through late summer, and then possibly slightly warmer than normal as summer comes to a close.

 

The La Nina conditions that have ruled for many months are now officially gone and we are currently in a neutral phase on the ENSO cycle.  The prediction for the rest of summer is for it to remain neutral.  We may see El Nino develop as we head toward late Fall 2012.

 

So in a nutshell, after several years of wild swings in the weather, all indications are that 2012 is going to turn out to be a very average year with both temperatures and precipitation close to our normals.  As of right now there is nothing that would lead me to believe that a severe drought is likely this year, and that is great news.

 

What isn’t great news is the pollen levels for people like myself who suffer from seasonal allergies.  2012 has been one of the worst years ever, because of the very warm winter we experienced, the record warmth in spring, and the plentiful rainfall.  Typically, we have to fight tree pollen in Spring, grass pollen in Summer, and weeds in Fall.  The Fall Ragweed season is by far the worst and affects millions of Americans.  I predict that the late August through early October period of 2012 will be one of the most severe allergy seasons that we’ve ever dealt with.  It’s time to stock up on those anti-histamines.

 

 

-Shawn

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Another round of severe weather for Kentucky

Here we go again...

 

Severe T-Storm Watch in effect for all of central Kentucky until 10:00PM tonight.  Here’s a look at the counties in the watch:

 

 

 

 

North of I-64, a Tornado Watch is in effect rather than a Severe T-storm Watch.  Keep your eyes peeled tonight.

 

This should be a scattered event.  Not everyone will see storms tonight.  They will just pop up randomly in this hot, moist airmass and may drop large hail.  Report any damage to law enforcement so we can get the information to the NWS offices and help them out.

 

 

 

Shawn