Will this Boring January Weather Turn Around?

Friday afternoon update:

From the NWS Louisville:

Given a period of heavy wet rains Sun into Mon and
no real cold air behind this system, think that sfc temps may hover
around freezing in southern and eastern sections of central KY and
not much freezing of precip on contact will occur.  Therefore, will
include a wintry mix in the forecast Monday night, but there`s a
good chance that precip will end as plain rain.

Tues-Fri look dry as most zonal flow dominates the Midwest for the
rest of the long term period.  A shortwave passing across the
southern states may threaten to bring a small chance of light rain
to south central KY Thurs or Fri, but not confident enough to
include in the forecast at this time.

Temperatures will be mild for one more day on Sunday as most
locations reach the 50s to lower 60s for highs.  We`ll cool off into
the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs for the rest of the work week
with lows in the 20s.

Looks like they are basically seeing the same thing I'm seeing.

Previous update:

Ice storm Tuesday?  Maybe.  But probably not.  It’s starting to look now like the moisture will be gone before the cold air really gets entrenched.  This is the reason I said the other day that I wasn’t going to bite on the solution the models were showing since we were still 4-5 days out, and icing events are super hard to predict.  It takes the perfect over-running scenario to produce an ice storm and that’s just hard to latch onto at such an early interval.

Today’s GFS run shows the freezing line dropping into Kentucky on Tuesday, but the difference is that the low gets ejected out to the east coast in a more progressive flow.  This would drastically reduce the snow/ice threat across Kentucky.

The Euro is coming in now and it also takes us below freezing Tuesday, but it shows the precip. shield being pushed even farther to the east by that time.

So it is looking like we’re going to be dealing with plain rain throughout the weekend.  On Monday, we might be able to squeeze out some mixed precipitation and then by Tuesday the storm is pushing off to the east as the cold air filters in.

The remainder of next week looks mostly dry with average temperatures for this time of year.  The boring January weather looks to continue for at least another week.  We will start looking toward the end of the month now in hope of some changes.  I know a lot of folks would love to see some harsh winter weather move into the Ohio Valley.  The snow lovers are a tough crowd.

Take care and enjoy your day,

Shawn

Tornado Siren Changes for Kentucky

Here is the latest update:

http://centralkyweather.blogspot.com/2013/02/house-bill-93-tornado-siren-regulation.html


Previous discussion:

For years I have been bothered by the lack of consistency in the use of outdoor warning sirens in Kentucky during severe weather.  Some counties only sound the sirens when the NWS issues a warning, while others sound the sirens whenever they want.  This is a big problem.

Joplin, MO was hit by the deadliest tornado ever in 2011.  Following the destruction, a study was done to find out where things went wrong.  One of the findings was that the public was confused by the signals they were getting from the outdoor sirens.  Either not getting a siren at all, or getting a siren, silence, then siren again for the "all clear" is very confusing.

We need to change the law in KY to prevent this.  We need to standardize and regulate the use of the outdoor sirens for consistency.  We need to make the National Weather Service the authority who issues the warnings that trigger the sirens, the same way that it is with every other form of receiving warnings.

I'm taking the lead on this and have helped write legislation that is being presented in the legislative session right now.  The bill is House Bill 93 and you can follow it's progress on the Kentucky Legislative Research Commission website.  If passed, this bill would make it so that no matter where you are in KY, if you hear the sirens sound during severe weather you will know that there IS an active warning and there IS a threat.  No more untrained local officials sounding sirens and "crying wolf".  I truly hope that we can get this bill passed.

Enjoy this warm weather while it lasts.  It'll feel like winter again by the end of the month.

Take care,

Shawn

Kentucky Weather

I have to take a moment to get something off my chest.  I am seeing too many meteorologists playing the business game.  What is the “business game” you ask?  It’s when you use your title to convince people that big storms are coming in order to increase your website traffic, or your TV ratings, or whatever the case may be.  I read from one of them that you should “forecast the pattern”…but the guy who wrote this hasn’t been forecasting the pattern at all because the pattern in January 2013 would suggest that a continuation of mild conditions will continue, and yet every single day to this guy is a new snow storm and arctic outbreak just around the corner.  It’s maddening.

 

“This is a supercharged pattern!”  Or is it?

 

Let me explain what’s really going on.  What’s really going on is that we’re headed into the middle of the month with only 0.19” of precip. on the board.  We’re going into the middle of the month with an average temperature of 33 degrees which is spot-on normal for this time of year.  We’ve put zero snowfall on the ground this month.  We are in a BORING stretch of weather that is being dictated by the PATTERN.  The AO index is running positive, the NAO is running positive, and when that happens you typically don’t see wild swings in the weather and you don’t see big blasts of cold air into the eastern U.S. either.  Any meteorologist worth his salt would have seen this coming at the end of December.  Yet…there are some who continue to beat the drum.  “The cold blast is coming!  The snow is coming!”.  Well, I suppose eventually that will become true.  Someday.  Maybe that’s what they’re hoping for.

 

I will continue to be honest and straightforward like I’ve always been.  I have nothing to lose or gain because I do this on my own dime and I don’t get paid for it.  It’s funny, because the guys doing TV weather still have absolute control over the minds of the masses, even in 2013.  You can show these folks what the pattern really holds for us, but they are hypnotized.  As the old saying goes, “you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink”.  I swear I think some of these guys are car salesmen.  They tell people what they want to hear just to increase business.  Do you want to constantly hear that snow is coming to your yard, even when it’s not?  Do you want a weather guy or girl who constantly gets your hopes up?  Or one who tells you what the data is showing?  It just drives me crazy…because these mets. are the ones who give all of us a bad reputation for being “wrong”.

 

Get ready for a continuation of average temperatures through January, and wet conditions beginning this weekend.  Flooding may be a concern, but snow is not.  We’ve got to get the global patterns to switch around so that we can get some winter weather in here, hopefully in February.  Time will tell.  But don’t listen to the guy who says all heck is about to break loose in Kentucky next week…that wild weather is coming…  he’s just leading you along.

 

 

Have a good day,

 

Shawn

Will 2013 Come In Like a Lion Or Lamb?

We barely missed our white Christmas.  Cincy to Louisville to Owensboro to Paducah...basically the Ohio  River is where the snow line set up.  North and west of there...you had a blizzard.  On the Kentucky side of the river...misery as we dealt with cold rain and fog.

So let's look toward January.  A new year promises to bring new weather.  But will it be snowy and cold, or warm and dry?

One thing to consider is that the Arctic Oscillation has been negative for all of December.  The last time it went positive was early November.  As a result, November featured a lot of days in the 60s here in Kentucky, and even one day that hit 70 at Lexington.  November was also snowless, with none reported for the month.  And finally it was dry with less than two inches of rain for the entire month.  You see, when the Arctic Oscillation, or AO for short, is in it's positive phase, you don't get those wild swings in the jet stream.  And when you don't have a wildly meridional flowing jet you also won't get big powerful storms.

December saw the return of a negative AO and wild weather...it's just that it all barely missed Kentucky.  From tornado outbreaks in the deep south to blizzards in the Ohio Valley, we saw the return of the wild weather which was to be expected.

Looking toward January, the current forecasts for the AO index are for it to go positive again.  Some outlooks even show it going strongly positive.  At the same time, the NAO is predicted to hang out close to neutral.  The NAO being in a negative phase can lead to huge troughs in the eastern U.S. that are good for snowstorms.  With a neutral to positive NAO you don't get those big troughs.  The AO being positive adds to the lack of storminess.  Here's a look at the current AO forecast:

See how during the first week of January the AO starts to go positive and may do so in a drastic way?  If I was a betting man..  I'd say that this is a signal that at least the first 2 to 3 weeks of January 2013 could end up relatively calm across the eastern U.S.  We may not see any big snow storms in Kentucky at all during this time.  There is a chance that the temperatures could remain average to slightly above average during this timeframe also.

As of today, we're looking at a rain/snow mix on Friday night and into Saturday morning...ending as snow showers on Saturday.  Then another storm may bring snow to us for New Year's celebrations.  Let's hope that we put down some snow before January...because it's not looking good for snow lovers right now.

My winter outlook is taking a beating.  Winter is far from over, however.  Some of the worst winter storms in KY's history have occured in February and March.  Hang in there...


-Shawn

Christmas forecast for central Kentucky

Well, we were holding onto hope that a white Christmas would pan out for the Bluegrass this year, but it looks like it's not going to happen in 2012.

Recent trends in the model data have been to take areas of low pressure on a track toward the Great Lakes, rather than moving them across the southern tier of the nation.  The GFS, as always, has been showing this idea for a while now.  Overnight, the European model came on board and it is now showing the warmer solution also.

Check out the forecast for the end of this week on the European model:

Notice the low moving into the lakes.  This will force a strong cold front through the area, with some thunderstorms along the front.  The GFS model agrees:

Notice that behind the front, we may see some flurries or possibly light snow showers...but this is not going to be a big snow event for Kentucky.  If you get a dusting on your car and in your yard, consider yourself lucky.

Then we look toward the following week.  After a relatively dry and cool period around Christmas, another storm looks to blow through the area on Thursday and into Friday after Christmas.  The European model again is taking this storm into the Great Lakes from the midwest.  Here is the low sitting in Oklahoma on Thursday night, about to make it's turn toward Michigan:

And just look at those temperatures..  very warm in the eastern U.S.  Basically a repeat of what we will see later this week, played out again next week:

Like I said, GFS model has been superior in showing this solution earlier, and it agrees with the Euro.  Rain and storms after Christmas could possibly end as a flurry or two as the storm moves through the  Great Lakes.

It is interesting to note that the indices were all forecast to go negative.  If we can get the PNA to go positive then we might get into a setup where the trough would dominate the eastern U.S...but right now it's starting to look like that's not going to happen.

As always, I'll keep an eye on things.  There is a ton of cold air bottled up in Canada and it would just love to spill into the OH Valley if given the chance.  Let's hope that the pattern will give it some incentive to do so in the coming weeks.  :)

That's it for now.  Enjoy the week.


-Shawn