April Will Be Warmer

Relentless. That's the best word to use to describe winter this year. It was relatively mild during the heart of winter, when it's supposed to be fierce. Now it's cold, and in a big way, when it's supposed to be transitioning to spring. We are currently running between five and eight degrees below average for the month temperature-wise, depending on which local official reporting station you use. That's significant. Back in February when I forecasted March to come in cold and brutal I honestly didn't expect it to last the entire month, but obviously it has. I know a family that runs a huge nursery operation and they sell flowers and plants to chain stores such as Lowe's.  I was talking to one of them on Sunday and he said the weather this year is killing them.

 

What about April? We're about to turn that corner this weekend and everybody is hoping that this cold is going to finally go away as the calendar changes. The good news is yes I think we're looking at warmer weather in April. The bad news is we will likely see a massive increase in thunderstorm activity to go along with it. It appears that the first two weeks of April will see the jet finally advance northward, allowing normal temperatures for spring to move into Kentucky.

 

The Arctic Oscillation that you've heard me speak of went strongly negative in March. Actually, it was the lowest I have ever seen it on the index last weekend. When you get a strongly negative AO and a negative NAO also, you usually see a huge trough in the eastern U.S. and that's exactly what we've seen. Cold air funneling into the Ohio Valley from Canada ... for weeks on end. The computer models are predicting that the AO and NAO will both start to move toward the neutral point on the scale going into April. Also, it appears that the blocking in place in eastern Canada will finally break up. This should allow the mean jet flow to finally retreat northward and the overall weather pattern will change. That means that normal temperatures for this time of year will finally been seen here in Kentucky. I look for April to return to 50s and 60s for high temperatures on most days. The winter coats may still get used early in the morning, where temperatures around freezing are still going to linger, but at least we're going to be headed in the right direction.

 

The bad news is that we've had a LOT of precipitation in recent weeks and the ground water levels are high. So there is a lot of available moisture to build clouds which in turn build storms. Also, the storm track across the south looks to continue.  I think we are in for an active period of thunderstorms in April. There will likely be a lot of damage both here and across the southern U.S. as a whole from this activity. Flooding issues may also arise due to the already high ground water levels. It's going to be a wild April in this part of the nation. I, for one, will just be happy to see T-shirt weather finally make it here.

 

 

Shawn

 

Where is Spring?

The calendar says it is now the Vernal Equinox…the first day of Spring.  (Apparently, kids these days are being taught that you do not capitalize the names of the seasons, but I was taught otherwise so I will continue to do it the proper way J ).  Somebody forgot to send that memo to Mother Nature, however, because normal weather for this time of the year is nowhere to be found.  We should be topping out around 60 in the afternoons by now.

 

My forecast for March has worked out even better than I expected.  The month came in like the proverbial lion, but it appears that it will try to go out like one also.  A pattern has established itself that keeps blocking in place in the northeast and/or eastern Canada.  And what that means for Kentucky is a persistent west to northwesterly flow diving into the region.  As a result, we’re locked into a cold and wet pattern here.

 

Unfortunately, it appears that this pattern will not let up anytime soon.  The large gyre in the northeast is predicted to maintain position and keep Winter intact across the Ohio Valley.  This may actually persist through the remainder of the month and into April.  Brrr…

 

I know a lot of people, myself included, are now sick of the cold and are ready for warmer weather.  Looks like we’re going to have to wait.  In addition, repeated weather systems will dive in on this jet stream and will keep the weather in Kentucky very unsettled for at least the next 10 days, if not beyond.  Look for rain and a little bit of snow to be frequent around here in the coming weeks.  This is terrible news for folks with agricultural interests.

 

I’ll try to do an update at the end of this month with a forecast for April.  Let’s hope that it improves!

 

 

 

Shawn

 

SNOW!

Update:

Here is a look at the latest HPC snowfall map.  Notice that Lexington, Frankfort, Lawrenceburg, etc. are all in the 20-30% probability zone for at least 4" of snow.  That's not too shabby.

I looked over NAM and GFS runs from lunchtime today and I think a good 2-4" swipe of snow will occur along and north of I-64.  I think folks south of I-64 will still get some accumulation, however.  School closings areawide are a  good bet for tomorrow morning.

Previous discussion:

Tomorrow is getting more interesting.  The modeling is still showing the same idea that it’s shown for days…a low will move directly over Kentucky today and bring rain to the area.  But the part that’s getting interesting is what happens on the backside of this low.  It appears now that a secondary area of weak low pressure will develop in southern Ohio on the backside of the main low, and with energy being transferred to this secondary low while the cold air advection is kicking in at its strongest, that will likely set the stage for snowfall to break out across the Bluegrass of Kentucky on Wednesday morning.  Some of the snow squalls could be quite strong.  Check out the latest depiction from the Hi-Res NAM model:

You’ll notice the low pressure forming near Maysville, KY and the snow bands strengthening behind it.  Wow.  If this scenario plays out, many areas could see the best snowfall of the season.  That would make back to back years where our best snowfall of winter occurred in the first week of March!

Looking down the road, I do not think winter is over with yet.  The signs I talked about in my March outlook are still showing…and a digging trough may still try to keep the cold air and possibly snow cranking into the middle of March, if not beyond.  I’d still say it’s going to be a while before we need the lawn mowers.

I have some friends in the flower growing business, and the outlook for March is not favorable for them at all.  Here’s hoping that we can see some good warmth toward the end of the month.

Shawn

Don't get out the lawn mower just yet!

At the end of January I wrote that I expected February to be colder, relative to average. In these last remaining days of the month we are indeed running below average. The temperatures are not the only thing that's below average this month; rainfall and snowfall are also both below average. Typically, February is the snowiest month in central Kentucky with about 4.5" recorded in this area. We are sitting at around 2.5" as of today, and I don't foresee adding to that total at any point during these last few days of the month. So February is going down as a little cooler than January, but also relatively dry.  Again, not the "supercharged" pattern you've read about elsewhere, is it?

Where is the snow? At this point a lot of folks have given up on winter and are looking forward to spring. But don't get out those lawn mowers just yet. There is a strong signal showing up in the medium range modeling that suggests March will come in like the proverbial lion. After enduring a cold rain/drizzle/snow mix for the remainder of this week, next week looks to come in cold with possible snow showers. By the 6th of March we may see a bigger storm develop and roll into Kentucky. At this point it looks like that one will likely be rain, but that freezing line that always gives our forecasts fits is going to be lingering close by so we'll have to keep a close eye on it. Regardless, something big looks to happen next week between the 6th and 10th of March.

Once that system pulls out, the recent model guidance has shown a huge trough developing in the Rocky Mountains. Should something like this happen, it could spread abnormal cold and snow into the Ohio Valley. Just as we switch to daylight saving time and people begin to get into the spring mood, it is possible that winter's fury could be unleashed upon the nation.  Funny, huh? This wouldn't be the first time, however.  We've seen huge March snowstorms in years past. I'm not saying we are going to get another two foot snowfall like some of those years in the 1990s. All I'm saying is that from my vantage point right now, I will not be surprised at all if the first two weeks of March turn out to be very wintry. You might want to keep the snow shovel handy and leave the mower in the garage just a little while longer.  The first two weeks of March may be very harsh around here...possibly even more wintry than anything we've seen so far this season.

-Shawn

Freezing Rain

Well we’re getting pretty close to showtime now, so I just took a peak at today’s 12Z model runs and it still looks exactly the way it has for days.  The bluegrass counties of Kentucky are going to be dangerously close to seeing an ice storm…but we may just barely escape. 

 

Today’s run of the GFS shows this well.  It looks like there’ll be a window of about 7 hours where the counties along I-64 and north of there will be at or below freezing Thursday night into Friday morning.  During this time, freezing rain may accumulate on elevated surfaces.  After sunrise, the temperature will warm to above freezing area wide and the ice will start to melt away and we’ll just see plain rain.  But from around midnight through 6:00AM Friday don’t be surprised to see a glaze of ice outside.

 

As it stands right now, this looks like rain for southern Kentucky and freezing rain for northern KY giving way to plain rain during the day Friday.  The overall impact will not be severe like we’ve seen from ice storms of recent years…but travel could become dangerous so slow down and take your time!

 

School closings are going to be a tough call in many counties.  This will be another situation where it’ll be interesting to see what they decide to do.

 

 

Shawn