Astronomical Autumn begins on Monday, but it’s also time to start thinking about Winter. After the record setting winter we had last year I started to dig into history and see where it stacked up on the all time list. And something I noticed was that our ferocious winters typically came in twos or threes in history. There’s one bit of evidence that points toward another horrendous winter this year.
Another thing I’ll be doing soon is looking at seasonal models, watching current trends, looking at pattern tendency in the medium range models, and a few other things. Generally speaking, the eastern half of the nation has been in a trough for a couple of years now. This has led to two cool summers in a row, and a terrible winter last year as well. There is no evidence pointing toward this pattern breaking up any time soon.
I’m expecting a cold, snowy, harsh winter again this year. In the coming weeks I’ll be adding more charts and details as we begin to track the pattern and make a forecast for Winter 2014-2015. Check back every so often.