Friday, October 28, 2016
Friday, July 22, 2016
Hey guys and girls, I realize I haven’t been updating the website lately. As a reminder, things are more active on social media so look for me at Central Kentucky Weather on Facebook, or @LburgWXandNEWS on Twitter.
Summer in Kentucky has turned out wet for many, with above average rainfall in MOST counties of central and western Kentucky. The Bluegrass counties haven’t had a Heat Advisory in effect in four years partially due to the wet pattern, and we’re watching closely to see if that streak ends soon. Regardless of advisories, it will be very hot and humid this weekend so use caution if outdoors. Flooding and heat are the two biggest weather related killers in the U.S. This is only true because people don’t take them seriously!
As we head toward August, the hottest and driest time of the year in Kentucky is almost upon us. It will be very interesting to see how the pattern turns out this year. From what I’m seeing right now, I would expect a continuation of the stormy pattern for at least a little while longer. The good news is that we’ve almost certainly avoided drought again this year at this point.
Take care, and I’ll see you on social media.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
I’ve been using the winters of 97-98 and 98-99 as analogs to compare to as one piece to this puzzle. My winter outlook is spot on so far and I’m happy with how it’s going. So where do we go from here? If you look at January-March 1998, you see only a few transient cold shots, otherwise conditions were mild to warm the entire period with some 70s in February and some 80s in March! El Nino certainly keeps things toasty in the eastern U.S. Could we see the same type of warmth carry us through early 2016? Looking at November-February 1998-1999 you see more of the same. Lots of highs in the 60s with quite a few highs in the 70s throughout the period. Sure, there are brief cold snaps…but overall the winters were VERY mild during those El Nino years. Just something to think about as we head toward January. There is a lot of chatter in the meteorological community about a turn to cold and snowy weather in the coming months. I personally am not sold on that idea just yet. I am beginning to think more strongly that the last 3-5 years have been our cold phase and now we are going to move toward a warm phase.
Monday, October 12, 2015
After looking over the latest data on the ENSO cycle, the MJO, NAO, PNA teleconnections, and throwing in a little bit of experience and gut feeling, I have made a few edits to the winter outlook for Kentucky. I also added a tidbit about possibilities for spring 2016. This will be the final revision.
Keep in mind that severe weather can and sometimes does occur in winter here in KY, particularly in these types of patterns. And that will also be something that we'll have to watch closely from March-May 2016 because many times we do see a large increase in severe weather outbreaks following these El Nino years.
So there you have it. I have often said that harsh winters strike KY every other decade. The 1950s, 70s, and 90s all featured terrible winters, and so I expected the '10s to give us some harsh ones and the 2012-2015 period proved to do just that. I think this winter our utility bills will be a little lower than what we've been seeing.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Due to the surge in social media and how people prefer Facebook, Twitter, etc…I haven’t been updating the blog often. You can find more frequent updates on Facebook at:
Or on Twitter at: