Severe weather outlook for Kentucky

We’ve been largely without severe weather in Kentucky for quite some time now.  April and May turned out to be very quiet months here... and usually those are our two biggest severe weather months.  We’ve been fortunate.  However, on this final day of May, it looks like the month is going to “go out like a lion”.

 

We have a weather system currently taking shape over the Plains and spreading severe weather from there eastward.  As the low moves toward western Kentucky and southern Illinois this afternoon, it will lift a warm front northward through the Bluegrass of Kentucky.  Scattered thunderstorms may accompany this feature through the afternoon hours. 

 

Then we will be in the “warm sector” of the storm system.  This is when things may get really interesting.  With the low nearby, and warm moist air in place, being lifted by a sweeping cold front..  the stage will be set for severe thunderstorms to fire up tonight across Kentucky.  There is a pretty good chance that wind damage will be seen around the state.  A threat of a few tornadoes does also exist.  You’ll want to keep the NOAA weather radios nearby this afternoon and especially tonight.  Don’t be caught off guard.

 

Here is the current outlook for tornadoes from the Storm Prediction Center:

 

 

 

You can see that we are firmly in the bulls eye for any of this activity today.  Here is the outlook for wind damage:

 

 

 

 

 

Stay safe this evening!

 

 

-Shawn

Summer 2012 Outlook for Kentucky

 

As of May 10^th, this year is still the warmest year ever recorded in the bluegrass area of Kentucky.  The official average temperature at Lexington for the period January 1 through May 10 is 49.1°F.  This surpasses the old record of 47.7°F set in 1921.  Some say Spring got an early start this year.  I say Winter never really began.

 

As far as precipitation goes, we are right at normal for the year.  The average from January 1 through May 10 is 16.24” at the Lexington station, and we only recorded 14.82” during that timeframe.  However, this doesn’t take into consideration the nearly 2.00” of rainfall we received over the Mothers Day weekend.  So we’re looking really great in terms of rainfall for the gardens and crop fields.

 

So where do we go from here?  The official outlook for Summer issued by the Climate Prediction Center indicates that neither drought nor a wet summer is likely.  They are predicting, based upon the global weather patterns expected, that Kentucky will see a very average season in terms of rainfall from June through September.  Temperatures are expected to be very close to average through late summer, and then possibly slightly warmer than normal as summer comes to a close.

 

The La Nina conditions that have ruled for many months are now officially gone and we are currently in a neutral phase on the ENSO cycle.  The prediction for the rest of summer is for it to remain neutral.  We may see El Nino develop as we head toward late Fall 2012.

 

So in a nutshell, after several years of wild swings in the weather, all indications are that 2012 is going to turn out to be a very average year with both temperatures and precipitation close to our normals.  As of right now there is nothing that would lead me to believe that a severe drought is likely this year, and that is great news.

 

What isn’t great news is the pollen levels for people like myself who suffer from seasonal allergies.  2012 has been one of the worst years ever, because of the very warm winter we experienced, the record warmth in spring, and the plentiful rainfall.  Typically, we have to fight tree pollen in Spring, grass pollen in Summer, and weeds in Fall.  The Fall Ragweed season is by far the worst and affects millions of Americans.  I predict that the late August through early October period of 2012 will be one of the most severe allergy seasons that we’ve ever dealt with.  It’s time to stock up on those anti-histamines.

 

 

-Shawn

Another round of severe weather for Kentucky

Here we go again...

 

Severe T-Storm Watch in effect for all of central Kentucky until 10:00PM tonight.  Here’s a look at the counties in the watch:

 

 

 

 

North of I-64, a Tornado Watch is in effect rather than a Severe T-storm Watch.  Keep your eyes peeled tonight.

 

This should be a scattered event.  Not everyone will see storms tonight.  They will just pop up randomly in this hot, moist airmass and may drop large hail.  Report any damage to law enforcement so we can get the information to the NWS offices and help them out.

 

 

 

Shawn