Winter Storm Update

UPDATE #2:  As of 10:00 Saturday morning..  the GFS model is trending a little farther south with the low.  Meanwhile, the brand new run of the NAM model maintains it's thinking from yesterday.  The GFS would therefore keep our snow totals lower...while the NAM model which is farther north with the precip. sheild AND has a colder look to it would plant a big snowstorm in Kentucky.  This is a REAL headache to forecast!!


As of right now, I'm still pretty happy with my outlook map (below).  I still believe that snow totals are going to work out very close to what I'm showing on my map.  No changes will be made at this time.  Stay tuned!






UPDATE:  As of 15:00 (3PM) this afternoon, here is my first call for snowfall.  This would primarily be Sunday.  Please excuse the rough drawing.  No, my 4 year old did not make this map for me.  :)  

You can click on any images for a slightly larger view.

The rest of the previous discussion follows:

Here is what the models are showing today.  It looks like we could still see our first real snowfall of the season on Sunday.

The NAM model has gone hog wild and is painting big snow totals for Kentucky.  The GFS model has been a bit lighter with snow totals because it wants to keep our temperature profiles at the surface a bit warmer, but the new 12:00 run today has not come out yet, so I’m waiting to see what it is doing with the storm.  But, here is what NAM shows as of now:

The pinkish color would be 15-17” of snow, light blue 7-12” of snow, dark blue 5-8” of snow, and the green shaded areas in Kentucky 1-4” of snow.

So, by the current NAM depiction of this storm, Frankfort stands to see a few inches maximum, while Lexington may see 3-5” of accumulation on Sunday.  London, Corbin, Pikeville...they would all get just totally hammered.  Louisville to Cincy would see only a very light snowfall.

The reason the NAM model is showing higher totals is because it thinks the cold air will wrap in behind the low more quickly.  It also believes that dynamic cooling will occur in the heavier snow bands, which means the storm will basically make it’s own cold air.  Both of these things are very possible...so maybe the NAM model is onto something here.  We have seen those scenarios play out before.

This bears watching over the next 24 hours.  Winter Storm Watches will likely be posted by the local NWS offices tonight.  If you need bread or milk, I strongly suggest hitting the store TODAY.  :)

-Shawn