To be honest, I’ve been very surprised at how quiet April has been in Kentucky. We’ve been largely devoid of severe weather around here lately, and I expected this month to be our biggest storm month of the year. I’m sure most folks don’t mind, considering how destructive March was.
Looks like Wednesday night could get a little interesting around here though. We have a setup about to take shape that could lead to a textbook MCS (mesoscale convective system) developing that would drop into Kentucky from the northwest.
Here are the latest charts off the GFS model:
Relative humidity about 5,000 ft. above the ground is predicted to be high Wednesday night.
Surface winds are forecast to be from the southwest as the system approaches.
At the same time, upper level winds will be strong and from the northwest which will create some shear.
So it appears that the atmosphere may end up primed for some healthy thunderstorms around here tomorrow night. MCS activity like this frequently occurs in May-July around here, but can happen other months as well. Many times it leads to wind damage and possibly hail damage as well. The Storm Prediction Center currently has all of central Kentucky outlined in a Slight Risk for severe storms tomorrow. Keep an eye on it!
The remainder of the week and into the weekend will be wet with chances for rain daily. Sorry... I can’t help it.
-Shawn
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