This year has been an odd one, with every single month except February being cooler than average. It's also been rainy this year with no dry months, let alone drought. The reason for this is because a blocking pattern established itself in the northern latitudes that resulted in a trough controlling the weather in the eastern U.S. for most of the year. We saw that trough finally break up in September which is why we had the warmest weather of the year in September and the first week of October. Interestingly, the GFS model is predicting that the trough is going to return now. It looks as though the eastern U.S. is going back into the northwesterly flow possibly for the rest of October.
What does this mean for Kentucky? Well, as you can see on the (clickable) image above, the jet stream is going to take a big dip and when that happens, you get colder air moving in. This image is valid Thursday the 24th. The trough is actually going to move in tomorrow with cooler air...but the model is predicting that the trough will actually linger and then become sharper next week. By Thursday the 24th, Kentucky is firmly in the base of the trough and this will likely bring our coldest temps of the season with frost being likely.
We will NOT have a good shot at snowflakes, contrary to what a certain TV meteorologist in Lexington will start harping on daily now until May. But we will see showery weather and colder air become more common now going toward November.
It's time to get out the jackets and coats. And as bad as I hate it...my utility bill is likely going to start going up now because the thermostat will soon get flipped to the "heat" setting.
-Shawn
Good write up. Fundamental change in the global pattern has occurred and we are going into the cold season. So let the HYPE begin. The typhoon activity out over the WPAC has been very helpful in getting the cold to set up. Overall, its not earth shattering cold, but still colder than normal for mid-late October. I sense this will continue into early November before the pattern breaks down. Still think that the overall winter will probably be a little more active this year with near normal snows and temps.
ReplyDeleteIf the latest NAM (10/20/13) runs are right...and that is a big IF, could see a few flakes mix in Wednesday. However, low-levels are still way too warm in the lowest 2KFt of the atmosphere. Model QPF performance has been less than stellar of late, so we shall see.
-MJ
Thanks for your input MJ. I was originally looking at 2004 as a recent analog year, simply because of the way the temps. stayed cool and the precip. kept coming all summer, and also because of how the warmth stuck around going into October. "Cool" in summer can turn into "warm" in fall and that's what happened this year. BUT...like you said we are now going into a CONUS pattern change that looks to stay around for a while so it's going to be quite a bit different now than what 2004 brought. In any case, it doesn't matter how warm or cold it gets...there are certain folks that are going to hype snow in every forecast every week from now until May. I guess you gotta' keep the readers coming back, don't you? ;)
ReplyDelete2004 looks good if you just consider the western hemisphere. Whole hemispheric pattern not as good of a match. 2008/2009 has some matching qualities. However, I do not tend to rely on analogs too much...and if I do, I make sure to use the whole hemispheric pattern not just the western one.
ReplyDeleteWith regards to hype, I consider it the norm now. Everything has to be played up to get viewers to watch. Its all about ratings. So, I get why some have to do what they have to do. Just remember, no one remembers you when you said it first, or got the forecast right. All they remember is when you were wrong. That goes for anyone!
-MJ
Enjoy reading your post Shawn. You explain the wx without the hype. Thanks for all you do!!
ReplyDeleteGood call on the no snow. May still get a shot Thursday, but we'll see. Cold for sure through the weekend, milder and much wetter as we head toward Halloween. Been looking at the long range patterns and the overall pattern looks to shift once again (probably due to lesser amounts of WPAC typhoons). Huge PV progged by the Euro to develop over the north Pole in early November. Large ridge over the eastern Pacific is gone and the Pacific Jet increases flooding the CONUS with milder air until mid November. Of course, a cold end to October...and mild temperatures in November have no bearing on the upcoming winter. I think, quick pattern flips with batches of cold and warmth are more likely than anything. -MJ
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