Severe Weather Outbreak #2 for the Fall Season in Kentucky

Update 16:45EST November 16th:

 

My concern is that this is a transitional season.  Just like March-May brings the most intense severe weather, there is another severe season that occurs in the fall of the year and we're right in the heart of it.  When you get this kind of model data coming in it really raises some eyebrows.  SPC has already upgraded from Slight Risk to Moderate Risk for a huge part of the Ohio Valley tomorrow.  It's starting to get a little concerning.

 

I'm still seeing good shear, CAPE, moisture, upper support, and favorable time of day for this system to support severe weather.  I think we will see two rounds of storms.  The WRF model shows this well.  The first wave of storms will come through early Sunday.

 

 

 

This first round of storms may bring small hail, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning with it.  After it passes through for the most part during the early afternoon, we may go quiet for a short time.  Then the wind will start to howl and as the cold front approaches from the west a more severe squall line will form and drop into the area.  This squall line looks to strike central Kentucky sometime during the evening hours.

 

 

 

This second squall line may have more severe wind associated with it.  There is also a threat for tornadoes to spin up inside the line as well.  These are the most dangerous type of tornadoes sometimes because they happen so quickly without warning and it's almost impossible to tell exactly where they will strike.  It's not like a supercell that you can easily track.  This happens and then boom it's over. 

 

I strongly recommend keeping a close eye on the weather tomorrow anywhere in the Ohio Valley. Northern Kentucky and all of Indiana and Ohio look to be the most prone for damage tomorrow.

 

-Shawn

 

Previous discussion:

 

The models are starting to indicate that yet another severe weather outbreak may be coming to the Ohio Valley.  Today’s 12Z run of the Euro model is particularly scary looking with good shear, good moisture, and favorable upper dynamics relative to this time of year.  Time of day is also good…not perfect, but good for thunderstorms.  The Euro model is showing as much as 500 joules of CAPE preceding this system Sunday night for much of Kentucky, which isn’t that shabby for November.

 

I will update the blog this weekend with more details.  For now, just file a note in the back of your mind that Sunday night could be dangerous for Kentucky and parts of surrounding states to our west as well.  Be alert!

 

CAPE values forecast off today’s 12Z European model run:

 

 

-Shawn