Spring 2014 Outlook for Kentucky

Wow.  What a Winter.  (I’m going to continue to capitalize the names of the seasons because that’s how my grade school teachers taught my generation to do it, although apparently that’s not common practice now days according to the young journalists.)  We exceeded our average snowfall for the season, our average school snow days for the season, and broke many records for cold temperatures.  Winter 2013-2014 will go down as one of the worst winters in recorded history for Kentucky.

 

We’re finally to that time of year that people love.  The trees are budding, the grass is becoming green again, and the sun’s angle of incidence is growing providing us with more daylight than darkness now.  Spring is on the horizon.  And the question is being asked: what does Spring 2014 have in store for Kentucky?

 

To begin, let’s think about the last 12 months (or perhaps a little longer) of weather here.  The eastern U.S. has been dominated by a trof which means the western U.S. has been in a ridge.  As a result, the average of our weather over the past year to year and a half has been cooler and wetter than average in the Ohio Valley.  This is why we had a very calm severe weather season last Spring.  This is why we totally avoided drought last Summer.  And it’s why the Winter we’re coming out of has been harsh.  Going into Spring 2014 there is no sign of this overall pattern across North America easing up.  The official forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows this well.

 

 

I agree with their assessment.  I think April will be a relatively cool month as a whole, particularly in the first part of the month.  I believe we will see warm temperatures at times toward the latter part of the month but as a whole the month will end below average for temperature.  As far as precipitation, we should end up about average for April.  I believe that the severe weather season will once again be very calm in April as it has been in March due to the influx of cold air dominating the region.  So, cool and wet will be the rule.

 

Looking down the road into May and June I think business will pick up in terms of thunderstorms.  As the sun’s angle draws near the Tropic of Capricorn and the hot air across the Gulf of Mexico finally spreads northward and tries to displace the stubborn cold trof in the eastern U.S., we should see an uptick in severe thunderstorm reports.  Temperatures and precipitation during the latter half of Spring will be about average in my opinion.  So seasonably warm and seasonably wet will be the rule.  Here is the CPC outlook for the period April-June as a whole:

 

Temps

 

Precipitation

 

 

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation that can drive our weather patterns is still running neutral and is forecast to remain this way generally throughout the Spring.  Therefore I don’t feel it will really have much influence.  Eventually as we head into Summer I believe this dominating trof in the east and ridge in the west pattern will start to dissolve and some above average readings may return.  But for the next 3 months I expect us to remain cold early on and gradually work toward normal as far as temperatures go with frequent weather systems bringing rain and storms to the area…not entirely different from last year.  This should cause planting season to be delayed some for agricultural interests, but will also be good for the purposes of storing up groundwater for Summer.

 

Are we done with snow now?  Time will tell…but in past years with cold Winters we have seen a few cold snaps in April and even May and occasionally we do get snow in both months.  If it happens it’ll be very brief.  Winter 1989-1990 featured some of the coldest weather we have ever seen and if you look at Spring 1990 you will find cold snaps lasting into June!  In fact, early June 1990 had at least one morning with near frost conditions!  For those wanting nice weather…hang in there. We are headed that way…just more slowly this year than usual.

 

 

Shawn