Derecho? Maybe! Severe Weather Outbreak Possible

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Summer!  June 1st was not only the beginning of hurricane season but also the beginning of meteorological Summer!

It's been a while since I made time for a blog post but I think it's time to discuss what's going on in the world of Kentucky weather.  First of all, how about this humidity?!  Crazy isn't it?  Typically we get into the middle part of Summer before it really gets sticky.  This year however we've already gone straight to 70°F dewpoint temps before May even came to an end.  I admit, I did not expect that after the Winter we just came from.  My Spring outlook worked out pretty good in Kentucky overall though with a calm severe weather season that picked up a little as time moved forward.  But now we're staring straight at Summer and the weather is becoming very active.

For this upcoming week what we've got to keep an eye on is a possible outbreak of severe weather that could stretch from South Dakota all the way into the Appalachian mountains by week's end.  The models are indicating this to occur as a large MCS (mesoscale convective system) that would race eastward and leave large amounts of damage in it's wake, possibly even as a Derecho.  However, the exact storm mode is not known just yet.  Here's how the WRF model sees things as of the wee hours of the morning on Wednesday:

Even though I'm not sure of what mode this storm activity will take on, I am pretty confident in saying that there will be an outbreak of storms across the nation's midsection this week and it will likely end up leaving quite a bit of damage behind.  Kentucky may get in on this action Wednesday, as the MCS strikes us from the northwest.  Here is the current convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center valid on Wednesday the 4th of June:

So keep in mind if you will be outdoors this week that severe weather is a good possibility and plan accordingly.  As of right now, I believe that wind damage will be widespread and will be the main threat, especially in areas to our northwest.  However, tornadoes and some hail will also be possible.  As always, stay alert and keep the NOAA weather radios on.  You can follow me on Twitter @WXinKY



-Shawn