Winter 2014-2015 in Kentucky

Update 2-December-2014:

Well it's time to wrap this up.  Meteorological winter began yesterday, and astronomical winter begins in just three weeks.  Here's how I see it.

December: Average snowfall for the Lexington area is 2.5 inches.  I predict that the first ten days of the month will work out to near average before cold air takes us below average quickly.  We should finish the month near average in terms of snowfall.

January: Average snowfall is 3.9 inches.  I am thinking that we will see above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures.  It will turn out to be a frigid and wintry month in central Kentucky.  High utility bills, over-worked heat pumps, and rampant illness spreading due to people being "cooped up" all month will become reality.  People flying south for winter will be thankful.

February: Average snowfall is 4.6 inches.  I believe we'll finish near or slightly below average for snowfall, but temperatures will be wild with some warm spells and some very cold spells.  The threat of an ice storm will be greatest during February.  This could potentially be a utility lines killing ice storm.

March:  Average snowfall is 1.4 inches.  I can see this being a month with a BIG snow storm.  There is a good chance of blowing way beyond the monthly snowfall average with a single storm during the first two weeks of the month.  Temperatures will remain cold during March.  People will be longing for spring...but it will be a long way off.  A few warm spells may come immediately ahead of a severe storm outbreak but as a whole March will be colder than average.

April:  Average snowfall is 0.3 inches.  I think we'll finish near average for snowfall.  We'll see some warm spells but the month as a whole will finish below average for temperature.  There will be some late frost that could damage trees and flowers.  The days will be getting longer but the weather will be slow to catch up.

For my local school district (Anderson County Schools) I predict a total of 16 snow days this season.

That's a quick rundown of how I expect winter 2014-2015 to pan out.  For those hoping for a white Christmas, the good news is that our odds are a little higher than average this year.  The weather models are hinting at much colder weather by the third week of December with the jet stream starting to become active.  Fingers crossed!


-Shawn



Update 24-September-2014:

Just for kicks, let's look at the official government projection for the upcoming winter.  Specifically, the 3-month period running December to February which is meteorological winter.  The Climate Prediction Center issues these seasonal forecasts and updates them generally during the third week of each month.  The brand new outlooks are showing something interesting.  

First of all, they expect temperatures in the Ohio Valley to be average.  There is no signal for warm or cold temperatures, compared to average.  They are calling for normal temperatures for this winter period.

What about precipitation?  I.e., snow chances?  Well, they are predicting the Ohio Valley to be drier than average.  So, less rain and less snow than we'd typically get in a winter.  Take a look:

Now, of course, I do not agree with their assessment.  It's worth noting that I've been watching these outlooks for many years and they rarely have ever panned out to be correct.  But, it IS the official government outlook for the upcoming winter after all, and I thought I'd post it for your viewing pleasure.

I am expecting quite the opposite, with cold temperatures and frequent precipitation, especially for Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and Kentucky.

One of the big keys to the forecast this year will be the ENSO cycle.  The El Nino/Southern Oscillation refers to the temperatures of ocean water out in the pacific and the flows and patterns that govern it.  This is the breeding ground for storm systems that eventually make their way into the United States, and so by watching this area closely we can get a good idea of how our weather here may be affected.

Let's take a look at history:

You can see that last year we were sort of in a neutral phase.  The end of 2012 had a weak El Nino, while the beginning of 2013 went into weak La Nina conditions, and basically the 2013-2014 period was neutral to ever so slightly La Nina.  These neutral conditions meant that the ENSO cycle didn't play much of a part in our weather here, and other variables were allowed to take over.

Here's the current predition for the upcoming months:

On the chart, 0.0 is neutral.  Anything 0.5 or greater is considered El Nino.  Anything -0.5 or less is considered La Nina.  You can see that most computer models are predicting us to see a weak El Nino return this winter, with some models getting toward a moderate El Nino.

If this does occur, it will likely influence our winter weather here in the Ohio Valley and my forecast for a cold, snowy, harsh winter may be a bust.  In my experience, El Nino brings mild winters to Kentucky.  Look at the strong El Nino of the late 1990s on the above chart.  That period of time had 70s around Christmas and nice weather all winter for a couple of winters in a row!

Having said all this, the models have been predicting El Nino to begin all year, and as of late September we are still in neutral conditions.  There are some who believe it'll never pan out...and I'm one of them.  I think we'll stay close to neutral going into winter.  It's something to definitely keep an eye on.

Autumn just began and obviously winter is anyone's guess.  There is very little skill in forecasting months in advance.  For now, I'm relying on history and also current conditions and two week model forecasts and I'm sticking to my guns...  this winter is going to be harsh.

More info coming later...  

Previous discussion below.

-Shawn

Astronomical Autumn begins on Monday, but it’s also time to start thinking about Winter.  After the record setting winter we had last year I started to dig into history and see where it stacked up on the all time list.  And something I noticed was that our ferocious winters typically came in twos or threes in history.  There’s one bit of evidence that points toward another horrendous winter this year. 

Another thing I’ll be doing soon is looking at seasonal models, watching current trends, looking at pattern tendency in the medium range models, and a few other things.  Generally speaking, the eastern half of the nation has been in a trough for a couple of years now.  This has led to two cool summers in a row, and a terrible winter last year as well.  There is no evidence pointing toward this pattern breaking up any time soon.

I’m expecting a cold, snowy, harsh winter again this year.  In the coming weeks I’ll be adding more charts and details as we begin to track the pattern and make a forecast for Winter 2014-2015.  Check back every so often.

-Shawn