Massive severe weather outbreak likely Wednesday

We have certainly seen our fair share of wild weather in the past week across central KY.  Not only have we broken the record for the wettest April EVER recorded, but we are fast approaching the record for the wettest single month of all time!  This is just astonishing.  But the crazy weather doesn't stop there...

We have also seen a lot of severe weather.  Dozens of tornadoes have been reported in Kentucky alone, let alone the rest of the southeast which has seen devastation.  Just last week, my grandmother's neighborhood in Versailles was struck by a tornado from the same storm that had sirens sounding for 90 minutes in Lawrenceburg. 

All this severe weather was expected (see my blog entry from a month ago at http://www.theandersonnews.com/content/very-active-severe-storm-season-could-be-shaping) but it doesn't make it any easier to deal with.  We've seen lots of structure damage, trees blown down, dams are failing, roads are sliding in, and towns are evacuating because of flood waters.

It appears that this stalled out frontal system we've been dealing with for a week will finally get pushed off to the east on Thursday.  But it's going to go out with a bang on Wednesday before it does.  Computer model forecasts show our area going very unstable tomorrow, as can be seen on the latest Lifted Index chart.

The light blue shading over much of Kentucky is indicative of Lifted Index -5 to -7, which is starting to get extreme.  At this same time that this is happening, we find ourselves under the favorable exit region of a 200mb jet streak.

Both of these charts are valid Wednesday evening.  The cold front will be passing through this extremely unstable and dynamic airmass and generate a lot of helicity, or spin, in the atmosphere.  Combine all of this with tons of moisture...and you've got the recipe for a massive severe storm outbreak including tornadoes.  The one fly in the ointment is that we may have rain ongoing tomorrow morning...and if so, this could limit some of the instability.  But...if we do not have rainfall here tomorrow morning, and if the sun shines bright for a while tomorrow, LOOK OUT.  This atmosphere will explode.

The Storm Prediction Center currently has all of central Kentucky outlined in a Moderate Risk of severe weather tomorrow.  An upgrade to the highest possible level, High Risk, is a possibility soon.  I strongly recommend that everybody keeps an eye on the sky tomorrow.  Keep a NOAA weather radio on alert mode near you so that you can receive watch and warning messages quickly, and have a plan of action ready.  Know where you will go if a tornado threatens your location.  Now is the time to prepare. 

More updates will follow on this very serious storm system tomorrow morning...check back often.

-Shawn