May has been quiet.. until now.

UPDATE:

Severe T-Storm Watch now in effect for all of central and eastern Kentucky until 20:00 (8PM).  Here is a view of the active watch box and counties under warnings:

We've finally gotten some MUCH needed sunshine lately and the ground has started to dry up just a little bit.  We really needed this, as rivers and streams were running very high and western Kentucky is seeing record flooding and a huge impact to our economy.  In addition to that, the severe weather we saw throughout April has started to wind down just a bit too.  But we may pick up a little bit of that today...

The Storm Prediction Center is watching our area for thunderstorm development this afternoon.  They may be issuing a Watch for the Bluegrass and eastern Kentucky this afternoon.  Here is the area of concern:

Notice the warm front...  roughly from Cincy to Morehead, KY to just south of Pikeville, KY.  This will be the focus for convection this afternoon.  Since the front is to our northeast, barely, that puts Frankfort, Lawrenceburg, Lexington, Elizabethtown, Somerset, Louisville, etc. in the warm sector of the storm system.  Here, moisture is on the rise due to southerly winds.  As you can also see on this chart, CAPE values could reach the 2000-3000 joules/kg range here this afternoon, which is a VERY unstable atmosphere.  The sun is out and is providing good heating to the ground.  As a shortwave trough moves through this afternoon in the upper levels, thunderstorms should explode across central Kentucky.  Some of these will drop large hail and possibly cause wind damage.  In addition, SPC shows a 5% chance of a tornado for us as well.

Keep the NOAA weather radios on alert mode today and be on the lookout for severe weather.  If/when SPC issues the Watch, I'll update the blog with the counties and areas affected.


-Shawn