As I mentioned in the Summer Outlook, indications for the summer are that there is neither a good signal for wet/cool weather nor drought. There are equal chances that it could go either way this year. ENSO conditions are neutral and may change soon, but La Nina is currently over with and the pattern for North America isn’t conducive for definite drought or otherwise.
However...despite what data we have to go on to make a season outlook, we are dry here in central Kentucky regardless. In fact, as of June 19 we are now in the “D0 – Abnormally Dry” zone on the U.S. Drought Monitor. The scale is D0 to D4, with D1 the beginning stages of actual drought. So almost all of central Kentucky is now in the dry stages preceding a drought. Not a good sign. There is a small sliver of eastern Kentucky that is already in the “D1 – Moderate Drought” phase.
The bad news about this is that drought breeds more drought usually. When the ground gets dry and void of moisture, you lose a lot of ability to produce clouds. And with no tall clouds, you get no rain. So it’s one of those situations where once you get into drought it’s like a machine that keeps feeding itself.
We do have a small chance at a storm tonight, as a cold front drops into Kentucky...but the time of day is not favorable at all for this to be a widespread event. Another small shot at rain comes Sunday but it’s the same situation...not a ton of moisture to work with really and the timing is bad. So we could easily stay dry both tonight and on Sunday. Therefore, the dry conditions look to get worse over at least the next 7-10 days.
I was really hoping for conditions to remain somewhat normal going into summer with no drought this year, but right now things are starting to fall apart. Let’s hope that the tropics remain active...perhaps we can get some land falling tropical systems to bring nourishing rainfall to the Ohio Valley.
-Shawn
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