Christmas forecast for central Kentucky

Well, we were holding onto hope that a white Christmas would pan out for the Bluegrass this year, but it looks like it's not going to happen in 2012.

Recent trends in the model data have been to take areas of low pressure on a track toward the Great Lakes, rather than moving them across the southern tier of the nation.  The GFS, as always, has been showing this idea for a while now.  Overnight, the European model came on board and it is now showing the warmer solution also.

Check out the forecast for the end of this week on the European model:

Notice the low moving into the lakes.  This will force a strong cold front through the area, with some thunderstorms along the front.  The GFS model agrees:

Notice that behind the front, we may see some flurries or possibly light snow showers...but this is not going to be a big snow event for Kentucky.  If you get a dusting on your car and in your yard, consider yourself lucky.

Then we look toward the following week.  After a relatively dry and cool period around Christmas, another storm looks to blow through the area on Thursday and into Friday after Christmas.  The European model again is taking this storm into the Great Lakes from the midwest.  Here is the low sitting in Oklahoma on Thursday night, about to make it's turn toward Michigan:

And just look at those temperatures..  very warm in the eastern U.S.  Basically a repeat of what we will see later this week, played out again next week:

Like I said, GFS model has been superior in showing this solution earlier, and it agrees with the Euro.  Rain and storms after Christmas could possibly end as a flurry or two as the storm moves through the  Great Lakes.

It is interesting to note that the indices were all forecast to go negative.  If we can get the PNA to go positive then we might get into a setup where the trough would dominate the eastern U.S...but right now it's starting to look like that's not going to happen.

As always, I'll keep an eye on things.  There is a ton of cold air bottled up in Canada and it would just love to spill into the OH Valley if given the chance.  Let's hope that the pattern will give it some incentive to do so in the coming weeks.  :)

That's it for now.  Enjoy the week.


-Shawn