White Christmas in Kentucky?

Well we've almost got the first full week of meteorological winter under our belts.  It's time to start looking toward Christmas, and particularly at our odds of seeing the sought after "white Christmas".  To date, it's been fairly mild overall.  We've seen some rain, but November was a dry month compared to average.  Temperatures have been running close to normal, or slightly above.  Winter hasn't really made its self known around these parts yet.  But according to all the major computer models...that is about to change.

Notice how far north the jet stream is right now:

Now look at what happens by the week before Christmas:

See how the pattern has drastically changed?  Now the jet is flowing across the southern U.S. with a cutoff low spinning over Maine.  This will allow some of the cold air that's been bottled up in Canada to spill into the Ohio Valley.  Here's where it gets interesting.  At the same time that's happening, a low pressure area may kick up on the Gulf coast and spread moisture northward.  If this happens, it would cause snow to break out across Kentucky during the weekend leading up to Christmas Eve.  Take a look at the GFS representation:

As that storm works into the Carolinas, it spreads heavy snow into Kentucky.  This is still two weeks away and there are a lot of variables on the table that will make or break this forecast.  Don't get excited about this just yet.  My point here is this:  the cold air is coming and the chance of a white Christmas in Kentucky is still looking very good.  Fingers crossed!

-Shawn