SNOW!

Update:

Here is a look at the latest HPC snowfall map.  Notice that Lexington, Frankfort, Lawrenceburg, etc. are all in the 20-30% probability zone for at least 4" of snow.  That's not too shabby.

I looked over NAM and GFS runs from lunchtime today and I think a good 2-4" swipe of snow will occur along and north of I-64.  I think folks south of I-64 will still get some accumulation, however.  School closings areawide are a  good bet for tomorrow morning.

Previous discussion:

Tomorrow is getting more interesting.  The modeling is still showing the same idea that it’s shown for days…a low will move directly over Kentucky today and bring rain to the area.  But the part that’s getting interesting is what happens on the backside of this low.  It appears now that a secondary area of weak low pressure will develop in southern Ohio on the backside of the main low, and with energy being transferred to this secondary low while the cold air advection is kicking in at its strongest, that will likely set the stage for snowfall to break out across the Bluegrass of Kentucky on Wednesday morning.  Some of the snow squalls could be quite strong.  Check out the latest depiction from the Hi-Res NAM model:

You’ll notice the low pressure forming near Maysville, KY and the snow bands strengthening behind it.  Wow.  If this scenario plays out, many areas could see the best snowfall of the season.  That would make back to back years where our best snowfall of winter occurred in the first week of March!

Looking down the road, I do not think winter is over with yet.  The signs I talked about in my March outlook are still showing…and a digging trough may still try to keep the cold air and possibly snow cranking into the middle of March, if not beyond.  I’d still say it’s going to be a while before we need the lawn mowers.

I have some friends in the flower growing business, and the outlook for March is not favorable for them at all.  Here’s hoping that we can see some good warmth toward the end of the month.

Shawn