Don't get out the lawn mower just yet!

At the end of January I wrote that I expected February to be colder, relative to average. In these last remaining days of the month we are indeed running below average. The temperatures are not the only thing that's below average this month; rainfall and snowfall are also both below average. Typically, February is the snowiest month in central Kentucky with about 4.5" recorded in this area. We are sitting at around 2.5" as of today, and I don't foresee adding to that total at any point during these last few days of the month. So February is going down as a little cooler than January, but also relatively dry.  Again, not the "supercharged" pattern you've read about elsewhere, is it?

Where is the snow? At this point a lot of folks have given up on winter and are looking forward to spring. But don't get out those lawn mowers just yet. There is a strong signal showing up in the medium range modeling that suggests March will come in like the proverbial lion. After enduring a cold rain/drizzle/snow mix for the remainder of this week, next week looks to come in cold with possible snow showers. By the 6th of March we may see a bigger storm develop and roll into Kentucky. At this point it looks like that one will likely be rain, but that freezing line that always gives our forecasts fits is going to be lingering close by so we'll have to keep a close eye on it. Regardless, something big looks to happen next week between the 6th and 10th of March.

Once that system pulls out, the recent model guidance has shown a huge trough developing in the Rocky Mountains. Should something like this happen, it could spread abnormal cold and snow into the Ohio Valley. Just as we switch to daylight saving time and people begin to get into the spring mood, it is possible that winter's fury could be unleashed upon the nation.  Funny, huh? This wouldn't be the first time, however.  We've seen huge March snowstorms in years past. I'm not saying we are going to get another two foot snowfall like some of those years in the 1990s. All I'm saying is that from my vantage point right now, I will not be surprised at all if the first two weeks of March turn out to be very wintry. You might want to keep the snow shovel handy and leave the mower in the garage just a little while longer.  The first two weeks of March may be very harsh around here...possibly even more wintry than anything we've seen so far this season.

-Shawn