Update (14:08EDT 22-May-2013):
While SPC does still have most of KY in the Slight Risk zone for severe weather this afternoon, I don't feel that coverage is going to be anything like what we saw yesterday. Southern and eastern KY got hit hard yesterday. Today the airmass simply is not as unstable. Also, we are blanketed by a lot more cloudcover. I don't see storms blowing up across the state today. There may be a few isolated storms or rain showers, but that's about it for the next several hours at least.
For this afternoon, most of the severe weather will likely be confined to areas north and east of Kentucky....from Indiana into New York.
The front will pass through on Thursday and Kentucky might possibly see more storms again with that passage. I'll keep an eye on it.
-Shawn
Update (22:27EDT 21-May-2013):
Round two is about to push into central Kentucky over the next couple of hours. This batch looked very healthy in western Kentucky but it is now weakening due to loss of solar energy and because the atmosphere here is still recovering from the first wave. So I don't expect any severe weather overnight in central Kentucky. Just garden variety thundershowers.
A low level jet is anticipated to ramp up during the morning hours and we could potentially see round three of thunderstorms moving into the area early Wednesday. My opinion is that this is very questionable right now, but the modeling isn't helping much at this point so it should be mentioned at least as a possibility. Wednesday afternoon if we see more sunshine we could have another more severe round of storms blow up. We will watch that closely tomorrow.
For tonight, I think most of us can sleep easy but keep those NOAA radios on alert mode at all times to be safe.
-Shawn
Update (12:33EDT 21-May-2013):
While SPC does still have most of KY in the Slight Risk zone for severe weather this afternoon, I don't feel that coverage is going to be anything like what we saw yesterday. Southern and eastern KY got hit hard yesterday. Today the airmass simply is not as unstable. Also, we are blanketed by a lot more cloudcover. I don't see storms blowing up across the state today. There may be a few isolated storms or rain showers, but that's about it for the next several hours at least.
For this afternoon, most of the severe weather will likely be confined to areas north and east of Kentucky....from Indiana into New York.
The front will pass through on Thursday and Kentucky might possibly see more storms again with that passage. I'll keep an eye on it.
-Shawn
Update (22:27EDT 21-May-2013):
Round two is about to push into central Kentucky over the next couple of hours. This batch looked very healthy in western Kentucky but it is now weakening due to loss of solar energy and because the atmosphere here is still recovering from the first wave. So I don't expect any severe weather overnight in central Kentucky. Just garden variety thundershowers.
A low level jet is anticipated to ramp up during the morning hours and we could potentially see round three of thunderstorms moving into the area early Wednesday. My opinion is that this is very questionable right now, but the modeling isn't helping much at this point so it should be mentioned at least as a possibility. Wednesday afternoon if we see more sunshine we could have another more severe round of storms blow up. We will watch that closely tomorrow.
For tonight, I think most of us can sleep easy but keep those NOAA radios on alert mode at all times to be safe.
-Shawn
Update (12:33EDT 21-May-2013):
I looked over the 12Z model data. Hi-Res NAM model looks a little less likely to me with only isolated supercell storms blowing up in this highly unstable airmass this afternoon. Taken verbatim, it shows one massive storm near Frankfort, KY and another near Campbellsville, KY this afternoon...then grows these two isolated supercells into a larger MCS this evening. What I think is more likely is the scenario offered by the WRF model out of St. Louis NWS office. Here is a look at it:
The reason I like this solution a little better is because we currently have a cluster of storms trying to get going in western Kentucky and the outflow boundaries left behind from earlier dying convection this morning would seem to be a great way for the current storms to go upscale and create explosive convective development in the Bowling Green, KY area this afternoon.
So let me be clear that the forecast for today is very challenging. There are so many cards on the table. But..if I had to make a forecast I would say that with clearing skies now in the Bluegrass part of the state, instability is going to be insane and with a cluster of storms trying to get going now in the western part of the state we may just have the trigger we need to cause storms to rupture this afternoon. I think that south-central KY stands the best chance of seeing storms today. The Bluegrass will likely get some activity...but I think it'll be later in the day. Soundings are showing huge CAPE numbers, the lifted index numbers are very low (around -10!) and we have a lot of moisture to feed on. It's just a matter of a trigger and I think that trigger currently lies in west KY.
Keep in mind that while we do not have the tornado threat that Oklahoma had yesterday, we still could see damaging hail and winds from any storms that manage to blow up. Fortunately, the wind fields look less than favorable today for us to see tornadoes. So that isn't a huge threat. But excessive rain will cause possible flash floods under these storms and flash flooding is the #1 killer of weather. Did you know that? Also, the lightning should be intense with these storms and you also have the hail and wind threat.
I think SPC should extend the Slight Risk zone farther east to include the Lexington and Somerset areas. They will be updating within the next hour and we'll see if they choose to do that or not.
Unfortunately for Moore, OK...they are seeing more severe weather again today. Poor folks...
-Shawn
When the 12Z data finishes coming in over the next 2 hours I will take a good look at it and post my thoughts on how this evening will unfold for Kentucky. We’ve all seen the destruction left behind in Oklahoma. I was there in 1999 to see that damage first hand. I went down to the Storm Prediction Center office, and the word floating around unofficially was that if there was such thing as F-6 on the scale, that tornado would have been F-6. Well, this 2013 May event in Moore, OK hit pretty much the same area and from the pictures I have seen it was equally as bad as 1999. Please keep those folks in your prayers.
An update for Kentucky is coming soon…stay tuned.
-Shawn
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