February 2014 to come in like a lion??

Sunday afternoon update:

The data is looking like this:  A narrow band of snow will work through central Kentucky tonight.  Along and north of the OH River we should be seeing lighter amounts this time on the order of just a few inches.  Along the I-64 and Bluegrass Parkway corridor we'll see the highest amounts with a half-foot of snow possible.  Southern Kentucky will remain warm enough to mitigate a lot of the accumulation of snow and will likely see a rain/snow mix developing.

After this system passes we go quiet for a short time on Monday afternoon and evening and then Tuesday the next system will approach the area.  I've seen some other mets. talking about this system taking on a colder and more wintry look the closer we get to it.  I'm not sure what they are looking at because the latest data shows warm temperatures in central Kentucky Tuesday with close to 60 degree readings as you go south toward Tennessee.  The track of the low appears to go northwest of the Lexington area, which is great news because it'll take the threat of ice northward with it.

There is yet another system that may take aim at Kentucky by the end of the week but we will cross that bridge when we get to it.  For now, get those shovels ready because the snow is coming tonight!

-Shawn

Wow.  I haven't seen a storm hyped this much in years.  Yes, the computer models are showing a major winter storm developing near Texas next week and then affecting the Ohio Valley in a negative way.  However, at this point it is impossible to say exactly what the sensible weather impacts will be in Kentucky.  This is one of those storms where the track of the low will make all the difference in the world.

I will post more details when the system comes into the U.S. and starts getting sampled by weather models.

I have heard from LOTS of people that "we're getting 15-18 inches of snow next week!".  I honestly don't know where they are hearing that from.  But here is my response to one of them:

"The real story is that what will eventually become that storm is currently 3,000 miles away and it’s not even being sampled and ingested into weather models yet.  Therefore, nobody knows what is going to happen.  Having said that, it appears that a strong winter storm is going to develop near Texas and move directly over top of Kentucky by mid-week.  So we may get freezing rain, rain, and snow.  It all depends on where the storm goes.  If it ends up tracking through TN and eastern KY…we’re getting lots of snow and ice.  If it tracks across central KY we’re getting a small ice event, then rain, then flurries.  If it tracks through Louisville, we’re mostly rain.

Moral of the story is:  nobody knows and won’t until probably Saturday when the storm finally comes into the U.S. and the computer models can get a handle on it."