Based upon the 00Z data from last night, the map I posted (below) still looks good. All the available model data takes central KY into the mid 30s for temperatures at the surface this afternoon and mitigates a major ice storm for this area. Per the model data, the main impact should be north of I-64.
HOWEVER... The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning anyhow. This basically runs along I-64 west to Lexington, then to Lawrenceburg, then to Elizabethtown and north of that line.
The reason is we have a snowpack on the ground. Snow is a great insulator. It not only traps warmth in the ground, but it cools the air via evaporation during the day and it reflects sunlight with it's high albedo. So what that basically means is that there is a good possibility that the computer models are not accounting for the snowpack and it's affect on surface temperatures today. We may not make it above freezing.
IF that happens we are looking at an ice storm this evening anywhere inside the Winter Storm Warning area. The wise thing to do is to prepare for ice and snow that will make travel almost impossible, and may affect utilities as well. This could turn out to be a nasty storm. Here is a look at the counties in the Warning:
I would like to stress again that IF we do not go above freezing today, we've got big problems. Plan accordingly.
-Shawn
Update Monday afternoon:
The 12Z model data is coming in, and boy it's a headache. The guidance is all over the place with this next system. NAM takes the low into Kentucky and brings rain to the Bluegrass. GFS is trending southward and brings an ice storm to a narrow strip of the state. The WRF brings the freezing line at the surface northward throughout the day, sort of a compromise of the two. It's really going to be hard to pinpoint this weather as we will see it. Who will get snow? Ice? Rain?
For now, here is my thinking. I believe a strip of freezing rain will affect the counties along the OH river tomorrow night and I also think counties north of I-64 in Kentucky will see freezing rain. This could be a significant amount of freezing rain as well and it could affect utilities and break trees, not to mention making travel almost impossible. If you live to the north, prepare for a possible ice event tomorrow night.
Along the I-64 corridor we will be very borderline with temperature profiles. We could have a mixed bag. Some of us may see a small amount of freezing rain. The wintry weather will have a minimal impact on this area.
Southern Kentucky looks to enjoy a cold rain tomorrow night. Everyone will see colder air move in on Wednesday and the precip. will end as flurries or light snow showers.
These areas will move around a bit as the new data comes in. More data will be coming later via Twitter @WXinKY. Here is a rough outline of what I'm thinking for now:
Previous discussion:
Well it looks like our snow totals ended up slightly lower than some forecasts showed. I was expecting about 4" and ended up with 2.5" at my house. I saw some forecasts for as much as 10" and we'll have to see when reports come in later this morning if anyone in central Kentucky got close to that.
All eyes now turn to the system that was originally getting all the hype last week. A low will develop and move across the southeast tomorrow. There will be heavy snow on the north side of it, and perhaps a little ice as well. To the south of the low there'll be heavy rain. The issue all along has been trying to nail down exactly where this low is likely to go. A week ago it was progged to ride up the windward side of the Appalachian mountains, bringing ice and snow to Lawrenceburg and surrounding areas. Then a few days ago the models started trending northward with the low and hinted at more of a rain event for us.
To say that this storm is a headache would be an understatement. It's going to be all about the track of the low. As of 7:00 Monday morning, here is how it looks to pan out currently:
Along and north of I-64 corridor in Kentucky we may see another round of accumulating snow Tuesday night. This would be enough to cancel schools again Wednesday for sure. Several inches would be possible if this idea pans out.
South of an Ashland to Lexington to Elizabethtown line, we would see a rain/snow mix with lighter accumulations, if any. Southern Kentucky would see only rain.
When the new 12Z data comes in today I'll post an update. This could still be a significant winter weather system for the Commonwealth. Stay tuned...
-Shawn
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