Here is the upper level chart valid during the wee hours Monday morning. Notice that powerful jet streak bending into western KY. This will serve as an excellent “exhaust” for the thunderstorms.
Now check out the surface chart from the same time. A strong neutral to negatively tilted cold front slamming through Kentucky to provide the spark, plenty of moisture to work with on warm southerly winds to provide the fuel for the storms, and good “intake” flow to power them through the night.
Yep, that’s a textbook recipe for another severe weather outbreak. The only thing we have NOT working in our favor is the time of day. The middle of the night is not the perfect time for generating strong storms. But.. the dynamics with this system may overcome that.
We just experienced the largest tornado outbreak for the month of January in Kentucky history. This all unfolded with NO severe weather watches in effect. The Storm Prediction Center was totally asleep I guess. People NEED to own a NOAA weather radio, preferably with S.A.M.E. programming, and keep it on alert mode 24/7. S.A.M.E. will allow you to only get warnings for YOUR county...so it will not annoy you. But by leaving it on 24/7 you will have notice of what’s going on...even when SPC drops the ball and doesn’t issue a watch. At least you can get the warnings and have a little time to take shelter. I strongly recommend everyone to get one this year and use it.
So, following a close miss by an ice storm Friday night, which is going to make a giant mess across southern Indiana and southern Ohio.. we now will be watching for more wind damage to possibly affect KY at the end of this coming weekend. Stay tuned!
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Shawn
Do you think that northern kentucky will get in some of the icing?
ReplyDeleteYes, I do believe northern KY will see some icing. But I don't think it'll be a catastrophic storm like we've seen up there before.
ReplyDelete