Friday, January 20, 2012

One Mess of a Weekend!

Well, I've been talking for a week now about the possibility of an ice storm setting up tonight.  No one else was mentioning it.  TV mets., NWS forecasts, private sources such as WeatherBug or The Weather Channel...  nope..  none of them were talking about it.  Perhaps it's because they don't give the GFS model any credit.  ;)

In any case, we are here and now we will begin to watch this weather unfold.  The question is where exactly will the freezing line set up?  It appears right now that it'll be somewhere near the OH river.  But until we see exactly where it establishes itself we won't know where the freezing rain will cause a mess.  Here is a radar shot to track the precip:



You can follow temperatures near your town with the Kentucky Mesonet, courtesy of my Alma Mater:



Notice the gradient!  As of this writing, it's 28 in Covington and 51 near the TN/KY border!  Obviously, anywhere you see the temps. at or below 32 on this map you will see freezing rain tonight.  Travel in these areas will be a nightmare, so I would not advise it!

As if this isn't enough..  this ice storm will be just the beginning a wild weekend. Sunday night, a strong cold front is still forecast to sweep through Kentucky.  Meanwhile, a strong upper level streak in the jet stream will impend upon the area in a curvy fashion from the southwest.  In addition, good southerly flow will replenish atmospheric moisture.  The result..  a severe weather outbreak once again.  A few tornadoes will also be possible Sunday night.  I can't stress enough how important a NOAA weather radio is to own.   I would not be surprised to see this weekend end with a Tornado Watch in place for most of Kentucky.

-Shawn

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