Monday, January 16, 2012

Ice Storm for Kentucky?

Welcome to a new week.  We begin today with rain and a few thunderstorms headed in our direction.  The winds are gusty outside already and will continue to be the rest of the day.  Moisture is pooling to our south and will move in later today.  Rain will be common here in the next 36 hours.  Hopefully it'll wash all that road salt off the highways.

I just wanted to stop by and update my thoughts from last week.  I was discussing the possibility of an ice storm setting up over Kentucky later this week.  Well, the modeling coming in every 6 to 12 hours is going back and forth, trying to pin down exactly how this situation is going to develop Friday.  The  most recent run of the GFS model is back to showing an ice storm here, very similar to what it was showing last week.  Check it out:

Above freezing air is set up across all of Kentucky at the 5,000 feet level.  Notice the blue line across southern Indiana and the Cincinnati area:



That's valid at 23:00 (11PM) Friday.  Now, check out the surface chart valid at the same time:


At the ground level, the freezing line is farther to the south, roughly along the I-64 corridor.  The low is moving along the TN/AL state line, putting us firmly in the precip. zone.  So again, you'd have precip. falling through a warm airmass and landing upon a below freezing surface.  This is the recipe for an ice storm.  My thoughts on this storm are the same as last week..   the difference being that now we are only 4 days out, rather than 7, so this forecast is slowly gaining more merit.

I urge anyone who plans to be out and about on Friday/Saturday to stay tuned to the weather forecasts.  Once we get this current storm behind us tomorrow, we can start to nail down firm details on how this coming weekend will actually turn out.


-Shawn
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3 comments:

  1. AnonymousJanuary 16, 2012 at 12:03 PM

    So this thing has been consistent with showing on the models? What is your confidence level that this thing will come to fruition?

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  2. jonbJanuary 16, 2012 at 12:41 PM

    Wxman this would be rain for SE KY correct?

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  3. ShawnJanuary 16, 2012 at 3:05 PM

    There have been multiple GFS model runs showing this solution. Some of the other modeling such as the Euro and CMC don't have the same temp. profiles. I think that the odds of seeing ice are moderate right now. Not a good chance, but certainly not "no chance" either. I'd be keeping an eye on later forecasts. And yes, as of right now this would be an I-64 corridor problem only. Southern KY should be in good shape AS THE MODELS SHOW IT TODAY. The track of the storm could alter everythign. Stay tuned..

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