On or around Monday night it appears that a power, negatively tilted cold front will sweep into Kentucky. You can see this clearly on today’s 12Z run of the GFS model:
At the same time, in the upper levels we will see the nose of a powerful 100 knot jet streak move over the lower Ohio Valley as you can also see on the 12Z GFS run:
What is likely to happen is that this turning of the winds with height will aid in the development of strong to severe thunderstorms. It’s too early to pin down exactly where this will happen. But I believe that most of southern Indiana, central and western Kentucky, and parts of western Tennessee will have the potential for all modes of severe weather (wind damage, tornadoes, and hail).
The models were wanting to bring this into the area on Tuesday. But the past few runs have sped up the timing a little and it’s now shown moving in as early as Monday night. This situation will bear watching as we head into late weekend. Please stay tuned to local weather forecasts in case this severe weather episode does indeed develop.
EASTER.... right now a slight chance of showers and temps. in the 50s for Easter Sunday. This is 10 days out, so changes are likely.
-Shawn
Would love to hear your thoughts on the time frame of severe weather you had mentioned for April 3-4 :)
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