As of today, the 26th, March 2012 is the warmest March ever recorded at the official station in Lexington, KY (this is true of other official sites around the state as well). With five more days to go, and a forecast showing lots of 60s and 70s for highs, there is no reason to believe that March 2012 will not go into the record books as the #1 warmest ever.
A lot of folks remember what happened five years ago. March 2007 also featured some warm weather and an early start to trees blooming and flowers popping up. Then, in April we had very cold weather and a hard freeze each morning from the 5th through the 10th of the month. This devastated many plants that had gotten an early start to growing season and also damaged many trees. There is some fear that we could see a repeat of that again this year.
The first thing I would like to point out is that March 2007 was very different from the March we are currently in. Temperatures were running very average for the month through the first three weeks. It wasn’t until the final week of the month that things really heated up. We saw 80+ degree highs on the 24th through the 28th and finished the month up on a warm note. By contrast, March 2012 has been warm from start to present. We had a brief cold snap with a good snowfall on the 5th of the month, otherwise we’ve seen very warm weather more similar to late May than March throughout its entirety. As of today, we are running 11.5 degrees above average for the month at the Lexington station. This is simply astonishing. March 2007 finished 6.7 degrees above average. The heat has been more persistent this year and has put March 2012 at the top of the all-time list.
If we look at the five previous years that had record setting warmth in March (2007 is not one of them) and then look at the April that followed, we see that only one time was April colder than March (1907). In the other years (1910, 1921, 1945, 1946) April ended up even warmer than March. So from a statistical standpoint, it is unlikely that April 2012 will be a cold, harsh month.
Having said that, it is normal to have low temperatures early in the morning near freezing in April, and a few cold mornings are likely. It appears that we could see some frost tomorrow morning, March 27th, and we may see frosty temps around Easter weekend as well. So even if we don’t see abnormal cold in April, it’s important to remember that our usual weather does in fact bring us cold during this time of year. We’ve been spoiled by the recent summer-like weather. The odds are in our favor, however, that April will not be a cold month overall like we saw in 2007.
As of right now, there is nothing in the computer model data that would suggest a hard freeze with temps into the 20s is going to be a problem over the next two weeks. Just remember to cover up those delicate flowers tonight for protection. The trees should be fine as we head into April as I don’t see any weather cold enough to really damage them coming up. In fact, the first couple of weeks of April look to be very average for this time of year and that is a good thing.
One more note before I go.. the model data is hinting at a possible severe weather outbreak here around April 3rd. It appears that a powerful, negatively tilted cold front may sweep through the first of next week, and that could set the stage for more wind damage and tornadoes. This will be something to watch closely once we get past this weekend. I pray that it does not become an April 3rd like the one we had in 1974.
-Shawn
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