Severe Weather Outbreak: Round 2

As of the noon hour today, the National Weather Service office in Louisville has confirmed 4 tornadoes occurred with yesterday’s outbreak.  Of those, 3 of them are being classified as EF-2 in strength.  Survey teams are still investigating and these numbers may rise later today.  I’m sure you’ve seen the pictures and video on the news..  it was an outbreak that caused mass destruction.

 

We are 24 hours away from round two.  Yet another strong low pressure system will develop today in Missouri and move toward the Great Lakes Friday night.  As it does so, it’ll drag a cold front into the Ohio Valley.  With good lift from the front, as well as good moisture and howling winds with lots of shear, or turning of direction with height, the stage will be set again for a repeat of Wednesday.

 

Here is how I think this will shape up:

 

During the wee hours of Friday morning, before sunrise, t-storms will break out near the warm front moving through Tennessee.  By sunrise Friday, these storms will intensify in strength and may become severe.  This cluster of thunderstorms may cause damage in middle Tennessee as it moves through the Nashville area.  Here is the WRF model depiction:

 

 

By lunchtime on Friday, this batch of severe weather will push northward into Kentucky.  Hail and wind damage will be possible with this activity.  Tornadoes will also be possible with any of these storms.

 

After this batch of severe weather pushes through, a break in the action will take place for a few hours.  Then, a severe squall line will develop along the cold front.  This will race eastward Friday evening and into the night.  Wind damage will be the main threat with this line, with a couple of quick tornado spin-ups possible.  At this time, it appears that southern KY, Tennessee, and northern Alabama will be most affected by this line.  However, central KY may see severe weather with this line as well.  Here’s the WRF model depiction of the squall line Friday night:

 

 

So in a nutshell:  cluster of severe weather, damaging and deadly, will move out of TN and into KY during the first half of Friday.  Then a second round of severe weather, mostly a wind threat, will sweep through Friday night.

 

Here is the current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:  The hatched area is the area where violent tornadoes (EF3 or larger) and significant severe weather is possible.   Lexington, KY to Nashville, TN is right in the bulls-eye.  This is a serious situation.  Please spread the word to family and friends.  Stay alert, and keep a NOAA weather radio handy.

 

 

-Shawn