Valentine's Day Storm?

Last week I mentioned that we could possibly see a huge storm around the 10th, and it still looks like that is on the table.  Fortunately it doesn't look like the dynamics will be in place for a severe weather outbreak this time around.  The copious amounts of rain forecast to be ongoing across the gulf coast will likely limit destabilization here in KY, and so we will likely see heavy rains with a few rumbles of thunder...but no tornadoes this time around in our state.

What's really interesting is Valentine's Day.  For a while now, the GFS model has been showing a storm developing in Texas and then scooting across the deep south before making a run up the Appalachian mountain chain.  This would bring snow to the Ohio Valley around Valentine's Day.  Today's run takes the low on a more westerly track.  Take a look:

Under this scenario, a heavy snow axis would lie from Missouri through central Illinois and Indiana and into northern Ohio.  Having said that, this run does some funky stuff with the path of the low.  Between 162 and 165 hours (Wednesday morning) it suddenly shifts the center of the low 150 miles to the north.  Strange.  We are still 8 days out, so placement issues are to be expected.  The idea right now is not to make forecasts based upon these GFS runs, but to use them as a general idea of what to expect next week.

The bottom line is this:  There is growing potential for a major winter storm to strike the Ohio Valley on Valentine's Day.  The track this storm ends up taking will make all the difference in who gets buried under a foot of snow, and who gets just rain.  But we'll keep a close eye on model trends in coming days.

The latter half of February is still looking cold as I mentioned a few days ago. Winter is just now getting started.  Enjoy this coming weekend...it may be the last NICE weekend we see until Spring.


-Shawn