Well, we are now a week away from KY Oaks and KY Derby action in Louisville, Kentucky. Let’s take a look at what the weather may have in store…because the weather is everything for this event.
For the past couple of days, the GFS model has been consistent in showing an upper air pattern developing by Thursday that would create a lot of blocking across North America. This, in turn, would cause a storm system moving through the Ohio Valley sometime around Thursday to put the brakes on and stall out. We could potentially see a lot of rainfall and possible flooding issues with this system as it moves through on Thursday.
The parent low is then forecast to get caught up in the blocking and become cut-off from the main flow. Cut-off lows are horrible things…they spin over the area for days on end and bring clouds, showers, and generally nasty weather. It is unfortunately starting to appear that this is exactly what’s going to happen next weekend.
Check out the brand new GFS run hot off the press. It shows the cold backlash of air coming in on Friday behind the cold front, the day of KY Oaks action, with high temperatures topping out in the 40s! Yuck!
As the low becomes cut-off from the main flow, it will spin over the area throughout the Derby weekend. Here is the GFS forecast for Saturday evening. Notice that we’re in the 40s for a high on Saturday as well, with WET conditions area-wide.
For the thousands of fans planning to attend this year, the weather forecast is a nightmare. For the jockeys and horses entering the races, it’s not much better. We haven’t seen frozen precipitation on Derby Day since 1989. This year there is a much better than average chance that we could put some frozen precip. on the board for Derby Day.
I will continue to watch this forecast evolve over the next few days, but for now you can plan on the Kentucky Derby weather being down right AWFUL this year.
-Shawn
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