Looks like another round of storms this afternoon. The HI-Res NAM wants to blow the area up again, the visible sat. channel is showing good sunshine along I-65, and SPC is monitoring for a possible watch and upgrade back to Slight Risk for us. I’d say in a couple more hours we’ll see round 2 pop off in this soupy airmass with dewpoints in the 60s. All kinds of outflow boundaries are left behind also. Pretty textbook environment for more activity here today.
Question will be how far north and east of I-65 will it occur. We’re still socked into left over cloudiness from this morning’s convection here in Frankfort. Might be a close call for Frankfort and Lawrenceburg. Right now I think that areas along and west of I-65 will see the best coverage of storms. The Bluegrass counties in and around Lexington may possibly see storms drift into the area from the southwest this afternoon, or if we see enough clearing we could possibly get new convection to form here. Any storms that do form will be capable of large hail once again, because the air aloft is very cold at a low altitude.
Keep your eyes peeled this afternoon and evening.
The thinking for Friday at this point is that the squall line will be severe in western Kentucky Thursday night, but will be in a weakening phase on Friday morning when it rolls into the Lexington area. Strong storms likely…but severe weather and damage isn’t looking like a sure bet here in central KY at this point.
Here’s an image courtesy of my friend Brian Goode at WAVE-TV from last night’s hailstorm near Louisville. I can assure you that the people under the storm were not smiling. J
Shawn
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